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991.
A multifractal analysis of hourly and daily rainfall data recorded at four locations of Andalusia (southern Spain) was carried out in order to study the temporal structure of rainfall and to find differences between both time resolutions. The results show that an algebraic tail is required to fit the probability distribution of the extreme rain events for all the cases. The presence of a multifractal phase transition associated with a critical moment in the empirical moments scaling exponent function was also detected. Both facts indicate that the rainfall process is a case of self‐organized criticality (SOC) dynamics, although the results differ for each place according to the time resolution and the nature of the rainfall, either convective or frontal. This SOC behaviour is related to a statistically steady state that implies the presence of clusterization in the time‐occurrence sequence of rain events. Such fluctuations have been shown by performing the analysis of the Fano and Allan factors and the count‐based periodogram. The values for the “synoptic maximum”, the typical lifetime of planetary scale atmospheric structures, have been obtained for each place and some important periodicities have been detected when dealing with extremes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
992.
Groundwater recharge studies are essential for investigating the feasibility of using the reclaimed lands in Singapore for subsurface storage and recovery of water. Through time‐series and spectral analyses, net recharge percentages and stress‐filtering characteristics at the reclaimed land were found to depend strongly on the stress transfer velocity, which was a combined function of rainfall pattern and vadose zone thickness. Based on stress transfer velocity, a theory was established to provide logical explanations for the rainfall–recharge relationship, the observed stress‐filtering characteristics and the recharge percentage characteristics at the unconfined sandy aquifer. Although the reclaimed land site has a lithollogically homogeneous soil profile, a non‐uniform recharge pattern was observed to be influenced pronouncedly by the uneven density distribution of bush grasses. Under a bare soil condition, significantly lower recharge percentages were observed for areas under the influence of offshore tides. The unconfined sandy aquifer appears to dampen out the wave propagation of offshore tides rapidly within a short distance from the tidal source, though it has a fairly straight shoreline and is created from highly compacted sand fills. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
993.
This paper reports the results of an investigation into flood simulation by areal rainfall estimated from the combination of gauged and radar rainfalls and a rainfall–runoff model on the Anseong‐cheon basin in the southern part of Korea. The spatial and temporal characteristics and behaviour of rainfall are analysed using various approaches combining radar and rain gauges: (1) using kriging of the rain gauge alone; (2) using radar data alone; (3) using mean field bias (MFB) of both radar and rain gauges; and (4) using conditional merging technique (CM) of both radar and rain gauges. To evaluate these methods, statistics and hyetograph for rain gauges and radar rainfalls were compared using hourly radar rainfall data from the Imjin‐river, Gangwha, rainfall radar site, Korea. Then, in order to evaluate the performance of flood estimates using different rainfall estimation methods, rainfall–runoff simulation was conducted using the physics‐based distributed hydrologic model, Vflo?. The flood runoff hydrograph was used to compare the calculated hydrographs with the observed one. Results show that the rainfall field estimated by CM methods improved flood estimates, because it optimally combines rainfall fields representing actual spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
994.
Probabilistic thresholds for triggering shallow landslides by rainfall are developed using two approaches: a logistic regression model and Iverson's physically based model. Both approaches are applied to a 180 km2 area in northern Italy. For the physically based model a Monte Carlo approach is used to obtain probabilities of slope failure associated with differing combinations of rainfall intensity and duration as well as differing topographic settings. For the logistic regression model hourly and daily rainfall data and split‐sample testing are used to explore the effect of antecedent rainfall on triggering thresholds. It is demonstrated that both the statistical and physically based models provide stochastic thresholds that express the probability of landslide triggering. The resulting thresholds are comparable, even though the two approaches are conceptually different. The physically based model also provides an estimate of the percentage of potentially unstable areas in which failure can be triggered with a certain probability. The return period of rainfall responsible for landslide triggering is studied by using a Gumbel scaling model of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves. It is demonstrated that antecedent rainfall must be taken into account in landslide forecasting, and a method is proposed to correct the rainfall return period by filtering the rainfall maxima with a fixed threshold of antecedent rainfall. This correction produces an increase of the return periods, especially for rainstorms of short duration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
995.
Interception loss has an important influence on the water yield of forested areas. Nevertheless, in most studies stemflow is not measured, therefore the question of how to determine the feasibility of optimizing interception and stemflow parameters simultaneously by matching daily simulated throughfall to fortnightly measurements of cumulative throughfall is an important one. By applying a daily empirical interception model, a goodness fit of 2·2 mm/day is obtained between observed and simulated cumulative throughfall. However, by applying the simple but robust Linking Test, it was shown that the parameters are non‐unique and falsely linked, i.e. inter‐relationships between different vegetation parameter sets give similar throughfall but non‐unique net precipitation. The Linking Test investigates the causes of obtaining falsely linked parameters and shows that objective equifinality is not the source of the problem. Objective equifinality occurs when an inappropriate objective function is used. The Linking Test also shows that falsely linked parameters are not caused by measuring throughfall on a non‐daily basis (termed frequency sampling equifinality). By expanding the interception model to the second degree, it was found that the non‐uniqueness is due to the inherent nature of interception and stemflow functions that behave similarly and therefore can easily compensate each other (termed similarity equifinality). It is also shown that a simple daily empirical exponential interception model developed for conifers in the uplands of the United Kingdom is suitable to model interception in Pinus radiata plantations in the Mediterranean climate of southern Australia by using only daily gross precipitation data and two parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
996.
The continuous real‐time analysis, at 30‐s intervals, of precipitation at an Australian tropical location revealed extreme and rapidly changing δ18O and δD values related to variations in moisture source areas, transport paths and precipitation histories. The range of δ18O (?19.6‰ to +2.6‰) and δD (?140‰ to +13‰) values from 5948 measurements of nine rain events over 15 days during an 8‐month period at a single location was comparable with the range measured in 1532 monthly samples from all seven Australian Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation stations from 1962 to 2002. Extreme variations in δ18O (?8.7‰ to ?19.6‰) and δD (?54‰ to ?140‰) were recorded within a single 4‐h period. Real‐time stable isotope monitoring of precipitation at a high temporal resolution enables new and powerful tracer applications in climatology, hydrology, ecophysiology and palaeoclimatology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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我国东部夏季降水百年雨型的多时间尺度变化特征研究 总被引:8,自引:4,他引:8
本文用1900-1950年的我国实测的与内插的降水、气温资料,结合近代先进的统计方法对立了1900-1950年我国东部夏季降水雨型序列,并将其与已有的近48年(1951-1998年)的夏季雨型序列相衔接,进而研究了近百年我国夏季雨带的演变规律及其与ENSO的关系,此外,还研究了百年夏季雨型与大气活动中心在基本态时间尺度上的关系,研究了北太平洋涛动和我国夏季降水的关系。 相似文献
1000.
This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space con-tinuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for the terms of the time-lag differential equation model and then fitting of the prognostic expression is made to 1951-1980 monthly rainfall datasets from Changsha station Results show that the model is likely to describe the nonlinearity of the an-nual cycle of precipitation on a monthly basis and to provide a basis for flood prevention and drought combating for the wet season. 相似文献