Subduction zone seismicity and the thermo-mechanical evolution of downgoing lithosphere

In this paper we discuss characteristic features of subduction zone seismicity at depths between about 100 km and 700 km, with emphasis on the role of temperature and rheology in controlling the deformation of, and the seismic energy release in downgoing lithosphere. This is done in two steps. After a brief review of earlier developments, we first show that the depth distribution of hypocentres at depths between 100 km and 700 km in subducted lithosphere can be explained by a model in which seismic activity is confined to those parts of the slab which have temperatures below a depth-dependent critical valueT _cr.Second, the variation of seismic energy release (frequency of events, magnitude) with depth is addressed by inferring a rheological evolution from the slab's thermal evolution and by combining this with models for the system of forces acting on the subducting lithosphere. It is found that considerable stress concentration occurs in a reheating slab in the depth range of 400 to 650–700 km: the slab weakens, but the stress level strongly increases. On the basis of this stress concentration a model is formulated for earthquake generation within subducting slabs. The model predicts a maximum depth of seismic activity in the depth range of 635 to 760 km and, for deep earthquake zones, a relative maximum in seismic energy release near the maximum depth of earthquakes. From our modelling it follows that, whereas such a maximum is indeed likely to develop in deep earthquake zones, zones with a maximum depth around 300 km (such as the Aleutians) are expected to exhibit a smooth decay in seismic energy release with depth. This is in excellent agreement with observational data. In conclusion, the incoroporation of both depth-dependent forces and depth-dependent rheology provides new insight into the generation of intermediate and deep earthquakes and into the variation of seismic activity with depth.Our results imply that no barrier to slab penetration at a depth of 650–700 km is required to explain the maximum depth of seismic activity and the pattern of seismic energy release in deep earthquake zones.     

福建漳州盆地活动断裂研究

本文从形态学和运动学的角度,确定并系统地研究了二十条主要活动断裂。北西向断裂以正-左行走滑型为主,北东向断裂以右行走滑-逆断层为主,两组断裂构成活动断裂网络。用 C¹⁴年龄数据计算得到了最近5990—1870年以来,各取样点地壳平均升降速率的变化范围是+3.53mm/a 至-0.65mm/a。用布仑法求得的九龙江活动断裂现代平均滑动速率是1.7mm/a。更新世至现代构造应力场的最大主压应力是以缓倾角、走向为 NW290°左右为特征的。350m 深处最大主压应力是700—760bar。两组断裂交汇形成的高渗透率带,对形成对流型中、低温热水型热田是十分有利的。此外,对该区的地震活动性亦进行了讨论。     

Application of fluid mechanic principles to the study of geodynamic processes at trench-arc-back arc systems

Geological processes at trench-arc-back arc systems are some of the most complex tectonic processes in need of study. A large amount of data based on geological and geophysical observations has been accumulated. To synthesize these data, mathematical models have proven to be very useful. Because geological processes are directly related to the dynamical behavior of the solid earth, many of them can be investigated in terms of fluid flow models. Some applications of fluid flow principles in studying tectonic processes at convergent plate boundaries are discussed in this paper. When mantle processes are modeled as convective systems, they are found to have direct implications for the determination of slab dip angles. Additionally, they can also account for the high heat flows in the back arc basins, provide a mechanism for back arc opening, and resolve the question whether subducted oceanic crust can reach melting at shallow depth for island arc magma generation. Besides mantle processes, flow models can also be used to study surface processes. A simple one-parameter plane flow theory is used to model the evolution of trench geometries. This model is able to fit simulataneously the trench curvature and the differential paleomagnetic rotation between volcanic islands for the Mariana. Despite the simplicity of many of these models, their ability to synthesize geological and geophysical data at convergent plate boundaries is quite remarkable.     

Large earthquakes in the macquarie ridge complex: Transitional tectonics and subduction initiation

While most aspects of subduction have been extensively studied, the process of subduction initiation lacks an observational foundation. The Macquarie Ridge complex (MRC) forms the Pacific-Australia plate boundary between New Zealand to the north and the Pacific-Australia-Antarctica triple junction to the south. The MRC consists of alternating troughs and rises and is characterized by a transitional tectonic environment in which subduction initiation presently occurs. There is a high seismicity level with 15 large earthquakes (M>7) in this century. Our seismological investigation is centered on the largest event since 1943: the 25 MAY 1981 earthquake. Love, Rayleigh, andP waves are inverted to find: a faulting geometry of right-lateral strike-slip along the local trend of the Macquarie Ridge (N30°E); a seismic moment of 5×10²⁷ dyn cm (M _w=7.7) a double event rupture process with a fault length of less than 100km to the southwest of the epicenter and a fault depth of less than 20km. Three smaller thrust earthquakes occurred previous to the 1981 event along the 1981 rupture zone; their shallow-dipping thrust planes are virtually adjacent to the 1981 vertical fault plane. Oblique convergence in this region is thus accommodated by a dual rupture mode of several small thrust events and a large strike-slip event. Our study of other large MRC earthquakes, plus those of other investigators, produces focal mechanisms for 15 earthquakes distributed along the entire MRC; thrust and right-lateral strike-slip events are scattered throughout the MRC. Thus, all of the MRC is characterized by oblique convergence and the dual rupture mode. The true best-fit rotation pole for the Pacific-Australia motion is close to the Minster & Jordan RM2 pole for the Pacific-India motion. Southward migration of the rotation pole has caused the recent transition to oblique convergence in the northern MRC. We propose a subduction initiation process that is akin to crack propagation; the 1981 earthquake rupture area is identified as the crack-tip region that separates a disconnected mosaic of small thrust faults to the south from a horizontally continuous thrust interface to the north along the Puysegur trench. A different mechanism of subduction initiation occurs in the southernmost Hjort trench region at the triple junction. newly created oceanic lithosphere has been subducted just to the north of the triple junction. The entire MRC is a soft plate boundary that must accommodate the plate motion mismatch between two major spreading centers (Antarctica-Australia and Pacific-Antarctica). The persistence of spreading motion at the two major spreading centers and the consequent evolution of the three-plate system cause the present-day oblique convergence and subduction initiation in the Macquarie Ridge complex.     

Estimation of hypocentral parameters of local earthquakes when crustal layers have constantP-velocities and dipping interfaces

The paper describes an algorithm for estimating the hypocentral coordinates and origin time of local earthquakes when the wave speed model to be employed is a layered one with dipping interfaces. A constrained least-squared error problem has been solved using the penalty function approach, in conjunction with the sequential unconstrained optimization technique of Fiacco and McCormick. Joint confidence intervals for the computed parameters are estimated using the approach of Bard for nonlinear problems. These results show that when a hypocentre lies outside the array of recording stations and head waves from a dipping interface are involved, then its inclination must be taken into account for dip angles exceeding 5°.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

Application of the extreme value approaches to the apparent magnitude distribution of the earthquakes

The apparent magnitude of an earthquakey is defined as the observed magnitude value and differs from the true magnitudem because of the experimental noisen. Iff(m) is the density distribution of the magnitudem, and ifg(n) is the density distribution of the errorn, then the density distribution ofy is simply computed by convolvingf andg, i.e.h(y)=f*g.If the distinction betweeny andm is not realized, any statistical analysis based on the frequency-magnitude relation of the earthquake is bound to produce questionable results. In this paper we investigate the impact of the apparent magnitude idea on the statistical methods that study the earthquake distribution by taking into account only the largest (or extremal) earthquakes. We use two approaches: the Gumbel method based on Gumbel theory (Gumbel, 1958), and the Poisson method introduced byEpstein andLomnitz (1966). Both methods are concerned with the asymptotic properties of the magnitude distributions. Therefore, we study and compare the asymptotic behaviour of the distributionsh(y) andf(m) under suitable hypotheses on the nature of the experimental noise. We investigate in detail two dinstinct cases: first, the two-side limited symmetrical noise, i.e. the noise that is bound to assume values inside a limited region, and second, the normal noise, i.e. the noise that is distributed according to a normal symmetric distribution.We further show that disregarding the noise generally leads to biased results and that, in the framework of the apparent magnitude, the Poisson approach preserves its usefulness, while the Gumbel method gives rise to a curious paradox.