The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M _W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M _W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes. Foundation item: Ministry of Science and Technology Project (2004CB418406). Contribution No. 05FE3010, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

Surface ruptures induced by the devastating 1068 AD earthquake in the southern Arava valley, Dead Sea Rift, Israel

The Elat fault (a segment of the Dead Sea Transform) runs along the southern Arava valley (part of the Dead Sea Rift, Israel) forming a complex fault zone that displays a time-dependent seismic behaviour. Paleoseismic evidence shows that this fault zone has generated at least 15 earthquakes of magnitude larger than M 6 during the late Pleistocene and the Holocene. However, at present the Elat fault is one of the quietest segments of the Dead Sea Transform, lacking even microsesimicity. The last event detected in the southern Arava valley occurred in the Avrona playa and was strong enough to have deformed the playa and to change it from a closed basin with internal drainage into an open basin draining to the south.Paleoseismological, geophysical and archaeological evidences indicate that this event was the historical devastating earthquake, which occurred in 1068 AD in the eastern Mediterranean region. According to the present study this event was strong enough to rupture the surface, reactivate at least two fault branches of the Elat fault and vertically displace the surface and an early Islamic irrigation system by at least 1 m. In addition, the playa area was uplifted between 2.5 and 3 m along the eastern part of the Elat fault shear zone. Such values are compatible with an earthquake magnitude ranging between M 6.6 and 7. Since the average recurrence interval of strong earthquakes during the Holocene along the Elat fault is about 1.2 ± 0.3 ky and the last earthquake occurred more about 1000 years ago, the possibility of a very strong earthquake in this area in the future should be seriously considered in assessing seismic hazards.     

Near-Ultrahigh Pressure Processing of Continental Crust: Miocene Crustal Xenoliths from the Pamir

Xenoliths of subducted crustal origin hosted by Miocene ultrapotassicigneous rocks in the southern Pamir provide important new informationregarding the geological processes accompanying tectonism duringthe Indo-Eurasian collision. Four types have been studied: sanidineeclogites (omphacite, garnet, sanidine, quartz, biotite, kyanite),felsic granulites (garnet, quartz, sanidine and kyanite), basalticeclogites (omphacite and garnet), and a glimmerite (biotite,clinopyroxene and sanidine). Apatite, rutile and carbonate arethe most abundant minor phases. Hydrous phases (biotite andphengite in felsic granulites and basaltic eclogites, amphibolesin mafic and sanidine eclogites) and plagioclase form minorinclusions in garnet or kyanite. Solid-phase thermobarometryreveals recrystallization at mainly ultrahigh temperatures of1000–1100°C and near-ultrahigh pressures of 2·5–2·8GPa. Textures, parageneses and mineral compositions suggestderivation of the xenoliths from subducted basaltic, tonaliticand pelitic crust that experienced high-pressure dehydrationmelting, K-rich metasomatism, and solid-state re-equilibration.The timing of these processes is constrained by zircon agesfrom the xenoliths and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of the host volcanic rocksto 57–11 Ma. These xenoliths reveal that deeply subductedcrust may undergo extensive dehydration-driven partial melting,density-driven differentiation and disaggregation, and sequestrationwithin the mantle. These processes may also contribute to thealkaline volcanism observed in continent-collision zones. KEY WORDS: xenolith; high-pressure; subduction; Pamir; Tibet     

Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress forecast (with hindsight)

A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time.     

Geographical Distribution of 3He/4He Ratios in the Chugoku District, Southwestern Japan

We have collected 34 hot spring and mineral spring gases and waters in the Chugoku and Kansai districts, Southwestern Japan and measured the ³He/⁴He and ⁴He/²⁰Ne ratios by using a noble gas mass spectrometer. Observed ³He/⁴He and ⁴He/²⁰Ne ratios range from 0.054 R_atm to 5.04 R_atm (where R_atm is the atmospheric ³He/⁴He ratio of 1.39 × 10⁻⁶) and from 0.25 to 36.8, respectively. They are well explained by a mixing of three components, mantle-derived, radiogenic, and atmospheric helium dissolved in water. The ³He/⁴He ratios corrected for air contamination are low in the frontal arc and high in the volcanic arc regions, which are consistent with data of subduction zones in the literature. The geographical contrast may provide a constraint on the position of the volcanic front in the Chugoku district where it was not well defined by previous works. Taking into account the magma aging effect, we cannot explain the high ³He/⁴He ratios of the volcanic arc region by the slab melting of the subducting Philippine Sea plate. The other source with pristine mantle material may be required. More precisely, the highest and average ³He/⁴He ratios of 5.88 R_atm and 3.8±1.6 R_atm, respectively, in the narrow regions near the volcanic front of the Chugoku district are lower than those in Kyushu and Kinki Spot in Southwestern Japan, but close to those in NE Japan. This suggests that the magma source of the former may be related to the subduction of the Pacific plate, in addition to a slight component of melting of the Philippine Sea slab.