太平洋板块俯冲与中国东部中生代地质事件

中国东部至少自侏罗纪开始就一直处于俯冲大洋板块之上,但是有关俯冲板块对其影响程度一直有不同的认识。最近的研究表明,太平洋海山岛链的时空分布显示太平洋板块的漂移方向曾发生多次转折,这些转折与白垩纪中国东部的构造演化和岩浆事件有着密切的时空耦合关系。从时代和力学性质上看,太平洋板块俯冲方向的改变在很大程度上控制着中国东部中生代的盆地演化和郯庐断裂活动等重要地质事件。这些认识为理解中国东部构造演化提供了新的视角,包括岩石圈减薄的机制、郯庐断裂的演化,以及燕山期大规模岩浆活动等。本文重点分析了太平洋板块俯冲与中国东部中生代岩浆活动的对应关系。在125～140Ma太平洋板块向南西方向俯冲,造成中国东部岩石圈减薄,软流圈卸载上涌,发生减压部分熔融;约125Ma,太平洋板块漂移方向发生了大幅度转折,形成安第斯式的俯冲挤压,岩石圈停止减薄和减压部分熔融,出现岩浆宁静期。随着俯冲的深入,到110Ma前后俯冲板块后撤,形成弧后拉张,岩浆活动又重新开始。     

西藏冈底斯带侏罗纪岩浆作用的时空分布 及构造环境

在新近完成的1：25万区域地质调查资料和相关研究成果的基础上,初步研究了西藏冈底斯带侏罗纪岩浆作用的分布特点及其年代学,并利用已有的地球化学数据重点分析了早期关注程度较低的侏罗纪花岗岩类岩浆作用的性质。目前在冈底斯弧背断隆带未发现侏罗纪火山岩;在冈底斯东部地区,早侏罗世岩浆活动几乎同时发生于南冈底斯（叶巴组火山岩和鸟郁、尼木花岗岩类）、冈底斯弧背断隆带（宁中、金达、布久花岗岩类）和北冈底斯（聂荣花岗岩类）,中晚侏罗世接奴群和拉贡塘组火山岩断续分布于北冈底斯,晚侏罗世岩浆活动零星分布于沙莫勒一麦拉一洛巴堆～米拉山断裂以北。将冈底斯侏罗纪岩浆活动置于时空框架内分析发现,南冈底斯和北冈底斯在侏罗纪时主要受俯冲作用的影响．而冈底斯弧背断隆带和中冈底斯自早侏罗世以来除了受到俯冲作用的影响外,还受到自东向西逐步扩展的碰撞作用的影响。结合古地磁重建资料和其他新发现．认为冈底斯带侏罗纪这种岩浆活动的特点可用班公湖一怒江洋壳向南、新特提斯洋壳向北的双向剪刀式（剪刀口向西张开）俯冲模式来解释。     

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes

Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies where _a is the apparent stress and is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of as a function of seismic momentM ₀. Whereas for the laboratory events 0.06 independent ofM ₀, depends quite strongly onM ₀ for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant , larger events correspond to larger _a as a consequence of fewer barriers to slip. If the inequality _a / 0.06 has general validity, then measurements of _a =µE _a /M ₀, where is the modulus of rigidity andE _a is the seismically-radiated energy, can be used to infer the absolute level of deviatoric stress at the hypocenter.     

Micromechanics of the velocity and normal stress dependence of rock friction

Among the second-order effects on friction the most important are those of variable normal stress and of slip velocity. Velocity weakening, which is usually considered the source of the stick-slip instability in rock friction, has been observed in velocity stepping experiments with Westerly granite. The friction change, , was –0.01 to –0.008 for a tenfold velocity increase. Using normal closure measurements, we observed dilation upon each increase in sliding rate. We also observed, for the first time, time-dependent closure between surfaces during static loading. The dilation that occurred during the velocity stepping experiment was found to be that expected from the static time-dependent closure phenomenon. This change in closure was used to predict friction change with an elastic contact model. The calculated friction change which results from a change in contact area and asperity interlocking, is in good agreement with the observed velocity dependence of steady-state friction. Variable normal stress during sliding has two effects, first in creating new partial slip contacts and locking some existing fully sliding contacts and second in increasing interlocking, for instance when normal load is suddenly increased. As a result, a transient change in friction occurs upon a sudden change in normal load.     

甘孜- 理塘洋可能存在北向俯冲：来自松潘- 甘孜道孚- 炉霍岩浆岩的证据

松潘- 甘孜造山带巨厚的三叠系复理石沉积盖层给探讨其基底性质、俯冲- 碰撞过程和深部岩浆作用增添了难度，使得带内广泛出露的花岗质岩体和少量镁铁质岩体成为解开松潘- 甘孜造山带构造演化谜团的重要研究对象。锆石U- Pb定年结果表明道孚花岗闪长岩形成于223. 5~217. 4 Ma，炉霍二长岩结晶年龄为219. 4 Ma，辉长岩为218. 9 Ma，均属于晚三叠世岩浆活动的产物。化学成分研究结果表明，花岗质岩石都表现出I型花岗岩特征，其中炉霍二长岩具有较高的Ba、Sr含量，相对较高且均一的εHf(t)值（-3. 69~-1. 65），表明其可能来源于富集玄武质新生下地壳的熔融。道孚花岗闪长岩具有分散的εHf(t)值（-13. 51~0. 41），野外和地球化学特征指示其形成于幔源熔体与古老壳源熔体的混合。辉长岩在微量元素蜘蛛图上具有类似的模式，不同程度富集Ba、Sr、Pb、Th和U元素，出现Nb、Ta、Ti元素亏损，具有岛弧玄武岩的特征，来源于流/熔体交代的地幔楔部分熔融。综合区域已有资料，我们对甘孜- 理塘洋的演化历史提出新的认识，认为甘孜- 理塘洋不仅仅存在向南俯冲的可能性，同时也具有北向俯冲的历史，晚三叠世道孚- 炉霍岩浆岩的形成受控于甘孜- 理塘洋向北边松潘- 甘孜地块俯冲的背景之下。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

Aftershocks series monitoring of the September 18, 2004 M = 4.6 earthquake at the western Pyrenees: A case of reservoir-triggered seismicity?

On September 18, 2004, a 4.6 mbLg earthquake was widely felt in the region around Pamplona, at the western Pyrenees. Preliminary locations reported an epicenter less than 20 km ESE of Pamplona and close to the Itoiz reservoir, which started impounding in January 2004. The area apparently lacks of significant seismic activity in recent times. After the main shock, which was preceded by series of foreshocks reaching magnitudes of 3.3 mbLg, a dense temporal network of 13 seismic stations was deployed there to monitor the aftershocks series and to constrain the hypocentral pattern. Aftershock determinations obtained with a double-difference algorithm define a narrow epicentral zone of less than 10 km², ESE–WNW oriented. The events are mainly concentrated between 3 and 9 km depth. Focal solutions were computed for the main event and 12 aftershocks including the highest secondary one of 3.8 mbLg. They show mainly normal faulting with some strike-slip component and one of the nodal planes oriented NW–SE and dipping to the NE. Cross-correlation techniques applied to detect and associate events with similar waveforms, provided up to 33 families relating the 67% of the 326 relocated aftershocks. Families show event clusters grouped by periods and migrating from NW to SE. Interestingly, the narrow epicentral zone inferred here is located less than 4 km away from the 111-m high Itoiz dam. These hypocentral results, and the correlation observed between fluctuations of the reservoir water level and the seismic activity, favour the explanation of this foreshock–aftershock series as a rapid response case of reservoir-triggered seismicity, burst by the first impoundment of the Itoiz reservoir. The region is folded and affected by shallow dipping thrusts, and the Itoiz reservoir is located on the hangingwall of a low angle southward verging thrust, which might be a case sensible to water level fluctuations. However, continued seismic monitoring in the coming years is mandatory in this area to infer more reliable seismotectonic and hazard assessments.