地震短临综合预报方法的研究

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用     

Possible ways to decipher spatial distribution of mineral resources

Regularity of structural patterns can be connected to planetary disjunctive systems (paleosystems). A computerized universal model of these systems should be developed that may be helpful to predict unknown localities of mineral resources controlled by tectonic processes. The specific character of tectonic phenomena is to be respected in geomathematical models. Some suggestions for applications are given.     

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.     

Three-dimensional model and late stage warping of the Plattengneis Shear Zone in the Eastern Alps

The Plattengneis shear zone is a 250–600 m thick, flat lying, Cretaceous, eclogite facies, mylonitic shear zone, with north-over-south transport direction, that is exposed over almost 1000 km² in the Koralpe region along the eastern margin of the Alps. Although the shear zone is one of the largest in the Alps, its role in the Eoalpine metamorphic evolution and the subsequent exhumation of the region, remain enigmatic and its large-scale geometry is not well understood. The outcrop pattern suggests that the shear zone is made up of a single sheet that is folded into a series of open syn- and antiforms with wavelengths of about 10 km. Eclogite bodies occur above, within and below the shear zone and there is no metamorphic grade change across the shear zone. In the south, the fold axes strike east–west and plunge shallowly to the east. In the north, the fold axes are oriented in north–south direction and form a dome shaped structure of the shear zone. Total shortening during this late stage warping event was of the order of 5%. Indirect evidence constrains this folding event to have occurred between 80 and 50 Ma and the fold geometry implies that the final exhumation in the Koralpe occurred somewhat later than further north. Interestingly, the shear zone appears to strike out of the topography in the south and dip into the topography in the north, so that north of the shear zone only hanging-wall rocks are exposed and south of it only foot-wall rocks. Possibilities for the geometric relationship of the Plattengneis shear zone with the surrounding south dipping detachments are discussed.     

Spontaneous Structural Reform in Australian Local Government: the case of the Gilgandra Co-operative Model in New South Wales

Dire financial constraints and the threats of forced structural reform have had the unforeseen effect of forcing municipal councils across Australia to reconsider their operational activities and organisational arrangements. With considerable ingenuity, numerous municipalities have proposed and sometimes adopted new structural formations that embody various forms of co-operative service provision. This remarkable development has unfortunately been largely ignored in the scholarly literature on Australian local government. In a modest effort aimed at remedying this neglect, the present paper seeks to outline the small, rural New South Wales Gilgandra Shire Council's (2004) ‘Co-operative/Local Government Service Company’ model, place it in the broader context of alternative models of local governance suitable for Australian conditions, and evaluate its characteristics.     

洪山预测区煤层赋存的可能性分析

分析了洪山预测区西部洪山岩体地质特征及其向外围扩散的范围和程度，研究了北掌勘查区和焦窑煤矿两邻区煤层受岩浆岩影响的程度，认为洪山岩体对预测区煤系及煤层赋存的影响较小，岩体外围仍有煤系赋存。为下一步找煤指明了方向。     

吾祠煤矿区构造特征及矿井生产布局探讨

通过对漳平市吾祠煤矿区的煤层地质构造特征分析，探讨了复杂构造条件下的矿井生产布局，主要是煤矿区段水平划分、煤炭采区的巷道布置、采煤方法及有关地质硐探等问题，对矿山开发有一定的指导意义。     

An Assessment of Structural Measures for Flood-prone Lowlands with High Population Density along the Keelung River in Taiwan

Midstream of the Keelung River Basin in Northern Taiwan has become highly urbanized and densely populated area. Flood inundation along riversides frequently occurred during typhoons or rainstorms. Three protection measures, including constructions of high-level protection levees, a diversion channel, and a detention reservoir, were proposed for flood mitigation. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the flood mitigation performance of the three proposed structural measures by using combined hydrologic analyses and hydraulic routings. A semi-distributed parallel-type linear reservoirs rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the surface runoff. Furthermore, a 1-D dynamic channel routing model was coupled with a two-dimensional inundation model to simulate the hydraulic characteristics of river flooding and overland flow. Simulation results of flood stages, runoff peak discharges, and inundation extent under design rainfall scenarios were chosen as the criteria for evaluation. The results showed a diversion channel is superior to the other two measures for flood mitigation of the study area. After the process of environmental impact assessment, a revised diversion channel approach has been approved for construction as the major structural measure.     

我国西部1∶5万地形图空白区地物解译研究——以西藏那曲其香错地区为例

我国西部部分地区1∶5万地形图数据尚未完成,给区域和国家经济发展带来极大不便。空间技术、计算机技术和信息技术的高速发展为遥感技术应用提供了技术支持,高分辨率影像获取能力的提高为大比例尺地物特征的提取提供了数据可能。本文采用SPOT5遥感影像,以1∶5万地形图图式标准为依据,进行青藏高原其香错地区地物判读,结果表明SPOT5能基本满足1∶5万地形图制图要求。为进一步提高判读结果,可采用多时相、多分辨率影像进行1∶5万地形图地物判读。     

ODP204航次天然气水合物的可能有利储层——浊积层

为了解岩性在天然气水合物分布中的作用, 利用岩矿鉴定、扫描电镜和能谱法对ODP204航次的 4个站位 10个钻孔共计 115个沉积物样品进行分析, 发现沉积物中矿物成分基本相近, 以粘土矿物为主, 含少量以石英为主的陆源碎屑。样品中含有丰富的硅藻和有孔虫等微体化石, 可形成硅藻粘土—硅藻土、有孔虫硅藻土或凝灰质硅质生物粘土。石英碎屑大多呈棱角状, 粒径小、含量少, 同时, 样品中可见透镜体、团块或旋涡状层状结构以及杂乱堆积的斑杂构造。上述特征表明沉积物为含有大量深海或半深海的浊流沉积物或其夹层。由于钻井岩心中有相当部分的天然气水合物样品分布在上述沉积物中, 推断这些浊流沉积物很可能是ODP204航次天然气水合物的有利储层。