Demarcation and Scaling of Long-term Seismogenesis

A space-time envelope of minor seismicity related to major shallow earthquakes is identified from observations of the long-term Precursory Scale Increase () phenomenon, which quantifies the three-stage faulting model of seismogenesis. The envelope, which includes the source area of the major earthquake, is here demarcated for 47 earthquakes from four regions, with tectonic regimes ranging from subduction to continental collision and continental transform. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 5.8 to 8.2, and include the 24 most recent mainshocks of magnitude 6.4 and larger in the San Andreas system of California, the Hellenic Arc region of Greece, and the New Zealand region, together with the six most recent mainshocks of magnitude 7.4 and larger in the Pacific Arc region of Japan. Also included are the destructive earthquakes that occurred at Kobe, Japan (1995, magnitude 7.2), Izmit, Turkey (1999, magnitude 7.4), and W.Tottori, Japan (2000, magnitude 7.3). The space (A _P ) in the space-time envelope is optimised with respect to the scale increase, while the time (T _P ) is the interval between the onset of the scale increase and the occurrence of the earthquake. A strong correlation is found between the envelope A _P T _P and the magnitude of the earthquake; hence the conclusion that the set of precursory earthquakes contained in the envelope is intrinsic to the seismogenic process. Yet A _P and T _P are correlated only weakly with each other, suggesting that A _P is affected by differences in statical conditions, such as geological structure and lithology, and T _P by differences in dynamical conditions, such as plate velocity. Among other scaling relations, predictive regressions are found between, on the one hand, the magnitude level of the precursory seismicity, and on the other hand, both T _P and the major earthquake magnitude. Hence the method, as here applied to retrospective analysis, is potentially adaptable to long-range forecasting of the place, time and magnitude of major earthquakes.     

An investigation of analysis of variance as a tool for exploring regional differences in strong ground motions

The statistical technique known as analysis of variance is applied to a large set of European strong-motion data to investigate whether strong ground motions show a regional dependence. This question is important when selecting strong-motion records for the derivation of ground motion prediction equations and also when choosing strong-motion records from one geographical region for design purposes in another. Five regions with much strong-motion data (the Caucasus region, central Italy, Friuli, Greece and south Iceland) are investigated here. For the magnitude and distance range where there are overlapping data from the five areas (2.50 M_s 5.50, 0 d 35 km) and consequently analysis of variance can be performed, there is little evidence for a regional dependence of ground motions. There is a lack of data from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes (M_s > 5.5) so analysis of variance cannot be performed there. Since there is uncertainty regarding scaling ground motions from small to large magnitudes whether ground motions from large earthquakes are significantly different in different parts of Europe is not known. Analysis of variance has the ability to complement other techniques for the assessment of regional dependence of ground motions.     

空间尺度上推方法的精度评价——以内蒙古锡林郭勒盟土地利用数据为例

不同的空间尺度上推方法会导致不同程度的信息丢失、信息歪曲等后果;但目前少有研究在较长的尺度序列上、对不同尺度上推方法所得成果开展精度分析。本研究首先提出尺度上推方法精度评价的三个准则,即:保持土地类型构成特征、保持土地面积精度、保持土地空间分布格局和斑块形态;继而使用格点中心值、最大面积斑块、最大聚合面积斑块等3种尺度上推方法,配合100 m～50 km土地利用数据开展尺度转化实验;最后基于上述评价准则和尺度上推实验所得的系列输出结果,分析了不同尺度上推方法的精度。研究表明:(1)格点中心值上推方法能更好地保留区域土地类型构成、土地面积精度等特征;(2)锡林郭勒盟地区土地研究的适宜尺度应小于10 km,最大不应超过30 km;(3)在尺度上推过程中,土地斑块的平均面积、形态以及空间分布格局对尺度上推成果精度有着重要影响。     

基于GIS和空间句法的城市形态实证研究

近年来,空间句法理论作为复杂理论众多分支中的一个,受到众多学者的关注,它被广泛应用于GIS领域,为城市形态研究提供了新视角。Axwoman,既是新兴的空间句法工具,同时又是集成于ArcGIS的用于城市形态分析的功能扩展,常被用来计算空间形态变量和评估空间形态。本文以斯德哥尔摩市街道网络为例构建轴线图,并对其连接值引入相关尺度分析方法,计算结果显示,轴线图连接值服从幂律分布规律。     

基于时空热点分析的城市交通违法行为特征识别方法

交通违法行为是引发交通事故的重要原因,然而现有研究主要关注交通违法行为的整体特征,缺少面向交通违法治理需求的分析框架。本文基于时空热点分析方法,提出从热点区域时间分布特征和典型时段热点区域空间分布特征两个角度识别交通违法行为特征的分析框架,分别用于支撑局部交通违法热点以及全局违法模式的原因分析和精准治理。基于该方法对福州市的机动车和非机动车（含行人）违法行为特征进行了识别分析,结果表明：机动车和非机动车违法行为在时间维度均呈现出9:00和16:00一日双峰特征,在空间维度呈现出“一片区、多热点”的聚集分布特征。二者也存在明显差异,具体表现为：① 在时间维度,非机动车违法行为呈现出更大的变化幅度,高峰时段与中午低谷时段、工作日与周末的违法行为数量差异均明显高于机动车;② 在空间维度,机动车违法行为在商业中心、医院等重要场所和交通枢纽呈现出聚集特征,分布范围更广,而非机动车违法行为则主要在人流量大且人车混行严重的城市中心路口区域呈现聚集特征;③ 不同违法热点地区产生的原因存在差异,需要有针对性制定治理措施。上述发现表明了本文方法能够全面快速识别交通违法行为特征,可以帮助指导城市交通违法行为动态监测分析系统建设,为持续优化城市交通现场执法警力动态分配以及交通违法行为精准治理提供决策支持。     

2020年云南省巧家县M_S 5.0地震强震动记录初步分析

2020年5月18日云南省巧家县发生M_S5.0地震,中国数字强震动台网的13个强震台站和昭通简易烈度计示范项目建设的43个烈度计台站,共接收168条强震动记录,经常规处理,绘制震区加速度峰值等值线图,并与云南地区常用地震动衰减关系进行对比,分析加速度峰值较大的几个台站频谱特性,计算地震动能量持时,讨论中小地震中高加速度峰值/低震害现象的成因,得到以下结论:(1) PGA等值线图形状较为平滑,其长轴呈NW—SE向展布;(2)云南地区常用地震动衰减关系预测值总体衰减趋势与观测值一致,但在近场(0—30 km)时,预测值基本偏小;(3)加速度峰值较大的几个台站记录主频集中在1—5 Hz;(4)小河镇台记录的能量持时较短,说明能量衰减较快,属脉冲型记录,不会对建筑物造成较大破坏。     

Investigating hydrogeomorphic floodplain mapping performance with varying DTM resolution and stream order

Hydrogeomorphic models allow parsimonious, fast and effective floodplain extent mapping using topographic data as the main input. Hydrogeomorphic approaches enforce the principle that floodplains are well-distinguished and unique landscape features within river corridors. We investigated the sensitivity of a hydrogeomorphic floodplain delineation algorithm, based on a hydrological power law, relating flow depth to contributing area, digital terrain model (DTM) resolution and river network hierarchy. In addition, we compared the results to other common floodplain mapping methods using standard flood-hazard maps as a reference. Taking the Arno River Basin, Italy, as a case study, our results show a dependency between the optimal power law parameters and DTM resolution, with larger parameter values required to reach optimal consistency with flood-hazard maps as DTM resolution increased. Floodplain mapping performance was also found to depend on stream order. We further tested the model consistency at a larger scale to evaluate its performance with respect to inundation maps in Hungary, Italy, Spain and the UK. Our study suggests that pre-defined power law parameters can be assumed, considering DTM resolution and stream order, supporting the use of the presented hydrogeomorphic model for large-scale floodplain mapping in ungauged basins where reference flood-hazard maps are not available.     

COSEISMIC DISPLACEMENT FIELD OF THE WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE DERIVED FROM STRONG MOTION RECORDS AND APPLICATION IN SLIP INVERSION

The development of high-rate GNSS seismology and seismic observation methods has provided technical support for acquiring the near-field real-time displacement time series during earthquake. But in practice, the limited number of GNSS continuous stations hardly meets the requirement of near-field quasi-real-time coseismic displacement observation, while the macroseismographs could be an important complement. Compared with high-rate GNSS, macroseismograph has better sensitivity, higher resolution(100~200Hz)and larger dynamic range, and the most importantly, lower cost. However, baseline drift exists in strong-motion data, which limits its widespread use. This paper aims to prove the feasibility and reliability of strong motion data in acquiring seismic displacement sequences, as a supplement to high-rate GNSS. In this study, we have analyzed the strong-motion data of Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake in Longmenshan fault zone, based on the automatic scheme for empirical baseline correction proposed by Wang et al., which fits the uncorrected displacement by polynomial to obtain the fitting parameters, and then the baseline correction is completed in the velocity sequence. Through correction processing and quadratic integration, the static coseismic displacement field and displacement time series are obtained. Comparison of the displacement time series from the strong motions with the result of high-rate GPS shows a good coincidence. We have worked out the coseismic displacement field in the large area of Wenchuan earthquake using GPS data and strong motion data. The coseismic displacement fields calculated from GPS and strong motions are consistent with each other in terms of magnitude, direction and distribution patterns. High-precision coseismic deformation can provide better data constraint for fault slip inversion. To verify the influence of strong-motion data on slip distribution in Wenchuan earthquake, we used strong motion, GPS and InSAR data to estimate the stress drop, moment magnitude and coseismic slip model, and our results agreed with those of the previous studies. In addition, the inversion results of different data are different and complementary to some extent. The use of strong-motion data supplements the slip of the fault in the 180km segment and the 270~300km segment, thus making the inversion results of fault slip more comprehensive. From this result, we can draw the following conclusions:1)Based on the robust baseline correction method, the use of strong motion data, as an important complement to high-rate GNSS, can obtain reliable surface displacement after the earthquake. 2)The strong motion data provide an effective method to study the coseismic displacement sequence, the surface rupture process and quick seismogenic parameters acquisition. 3)The combination of multiple data can significantly improve the data coverage and give play to the advantages of different data. Therefore, it is suggested to combine multiple data(GPS, strong motion, InSAR, etc.)for joint inversion to improve the stability of fault slip model.     

Size scaling patterns of species richness and carbon biomass for marine phytoplankton functional groups

Phytoplankton assemblages were clustered into associations according to functional taxonomic (diatoms, dinoflagellates and coccolithophores) and “ataxonomic” unimodal (nanoplankton, microplankton and macroplankton) size‐based criteria. Scaling relations of species richness‐cell size were performed in terms of histogram and log‐transformed data analyses for both taxonomic and ataxonomic groups. Frequency distribution histograms were fitted to a negative power function, which was strongly unimodal and right skewed and invariant across taxonomic and ataxonomic units. Regression analyses of the log‐transformed data were fitted to negative linear curves, which had common patterns and they were independent of taxonomic or ataxonomic affiliation. Species carbon biomass–cell size spectra produced by log transformation of the relevant data yielded positive slopes for both taxonomic and ataxonomic groups. In contrast, comparisons of the relative cell abundance, cell volume and carbon biomass levels showed large differences among these variables across taxonomic and ataxonomic groups. This work demonstrates that phytoplankton taxonomic and ataxonomic functional group relationships should be considered when developing future models of phytoplankton community structure.     

Evaluation of a recently proposed record selection and scaling procedure for low‐rise to mid‐rise reinforced concrete buildings and its use for probabilistic risk assessment studies

This paper evaluates a recent record selection and scaling procedure of the authors that can determine the probabilistic structural response of buildings behaving either in the elastic or post‐elastic range. This feature marks a significant strength on the procedure as the probabilistic structural response distribution conveys important information on probability‐based damage assessment. The paper presents case studies that show the utilization of the proposed record selection and scaling procedure as a tool for the estimation of damage states and derivation of site‐specific and region‐specific fragility functions. The method can be used to describe exceedance probabilities of damage limits under a certain target hazard level with known annual exceedance rate (via probabilistic seismic hazard assessment). Thus, the resulting fragility models can relate the seismicity of the region (or a site) with the resulting building performance in a more accurate manner. Under this context, this simple and computationally efficient record selection and scaling procedure can be benefitted significantly by probability‐based risk assessment methods that have started to be considered as indispensable for developing robust earthquake loss models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.