非常规综合物化探油气预测研究

非常规综合物化探方法油气预测研究中存在的主要问题为：缺乏系统与综合的基础性理论研究，异常形成的机理还不十分清楚，在参数的优化组合及异常的求取上尚有诸多不足。针对后一种情况，选择松辽盆地东岭构造作为实验区进行了有益的探索。选取低能吸附烃、放射性测氡及土壤热释光三类参数进行了优化组合，分别计算了综合指标MAE与MAC及组合熵，然后对各值采用泛克里格法求取异常，取得了良好的效果。下一步研究应从异常形成的机理入手，建立三维非常规综合物化探油气预测模式，以提高油气预测成功率。     

The Mount Parnitha (Athens) Earthquake of September 7, 1999: A Disaster Management Perspective

Natural Hazards - Strong earthquakes in the proximity of densely inhabited urban areas pose one ofthe most complicated disaster management situations faced by societies today. Herethe experience...     

The Mw = 6.0, 7 September 1999 Athens Earthquake

On 7 September 1999 at 11:56 GMT a destructive earthquake (M_w = 6.0) occurred close to Athens (Greece). The rupture process is examined using data from the Cornet local permanent network, as well as teleseismic recordings. Data recorded by a temporary seismological network were analyzed to study the aftershock sequence. The mainshock was relocated at 38.105°N, 23.565°E, about 20 km northwest of Athens. Four foreshocks were also relocated close to the mainshock. The modeling of teleseismic P and SH waves provides a well-constrained focal mechanism of the mainshock (strike = 105°, dip = 55° and rake = -80°) at a depth of 8 km and a seismic moment M₀ = 1.010²⁵ dyn·cm. The obtained fault plane solution represents normal faulting indicating an almost north-south extension. More than 3500 aftershocks were located, 1813 of which present RMS < 0.1 s and ERH, ERZ < 1.0 km. Two main clusters were distinguished, while the depth distribution is concentrated between 2 and 11 km. Over 1000 fault plane solutions of aftershocks were constrained, the majority of which also correspond to N–S extension. No surface breaks were observed but the fault plane solution of the mainshock is in agreement with the tectonics of the area and with the focal mechanisms obtained by aftershocks. The hypocenter of the mainshock is located on the deep western edge of the fault plane. The relocated epicenter coincides with the fringe that represents the highest deformation observed on the differential interferometric image. The calculated source duration is 5 sec, while the estimated dimensions of the fault are 15 km length and 10 km width. The source process is characterized by unilateral eastward rupture propagation, towards the city of Athens. An evident stop phase observed in the recordings of the Cornet local stations is interpreted as a barrier caused by the Aegaleo Mountain.     

Paleoliquefaction study of the Clarendon–Linden fault system, western New York State

The lack of earthquake-induced liquefaction features in Late Wisconsin and Holocene sediments in Genesee, Wyoming, and Allegany Counties suggests that the Clarendon–Linden fault system (CLF) did not generate large, moment magnitude, M≥6 earthquakes during the past 12,000 years. Given that it was the likely source of the 1929 M 4.9 Attica earthquake, however, the Clarenden–Linden fault system probably is capable of producing future M5 events. During this study, we reviewed newspaper accounts of the 1929 Attica earthquake, searched for earthquake-induced liquefaction features in sand and gravel pits and along tens of kilometers of river cutbanks, evaluated numerous soft-sediment deformation structures, compiled geotechnical data and performed liquefaction potential analysis of saturated sandy sediments. We found that the 1929 M 4.9 Attica earthquake probably did not induce liquefaction in its epicentral area and may have been generated by the western branch of the Clarendon–Linden fault system. Most soft-sediment deformation structures found during reconnaissance did not resemble earthquake-induced liquefaction features, and even the few that did could be attributed to non-seismic processes. Our analysis suggests that the magnitude threshold for liquefaction is between M 5.2 and 6, that a large (M≥6) earthquake would liquefy sediments at many sites in the area, and that a moderate earthquake (M 5–5.9) would liquefy sediments at some sites but perhaps not at enough sites to have been found during reconnaissance. We conclude that the Clarendon–Linden fault system could have produced small and moderate earthquakes, but probably not large events, during the Late Wisconsin and Holocene.     

Stability of earthquake moment tensor inversions: effect of the double-couple constraint

We show that spurious large non-double-couple components can be obtained in inversions for the full deviatoric moment tensor for shallow crustal earthquakes due to inaccurate Earth models. The traditional “best double-couple” solution does not in general provide an optimal estimate of a double-couple mechanism, and is only reliable when the non-double-couple component of the full deviatoric solution is small. The inverse problem for the moment tensors of the 1998 Antarctic Plate and 2000 Wharton Basin strike-slip earthquakes is shown in each case to have two well-fitting minima in the misfit function of pure double-couple solutions. Such pairs of solutions are most likely to exist for earthquakes which are close either to vertical strike-slip or to dip-slip on a fault plane dipping at 45°. It is shown theoretically that these pairs of solutions arise from the combination of the pure double-couple constraint and the instability of two elements of the moment tensor. No significant non-double-couple component is found for the shallow thrusting 1996 Biak, Indonesia earthquake.     

天祝-古浪5.4级地震震源机制和发震断层以及海原西断裂大震危险性讨论

研究了发生在海西断裂天祝拉分盆地1996年6月1日5.4级地震的震源机制，利用位于天祝－古浪地区的数字式微震监测台网纪录的余震的精确定位确定了本次地震的发震断层，研究表明这次地震是天祝拉分盆地中垂直于主断裂的近南北向断裂所形成，根据破裂模型和海原西断裂的应力积累状况，讨论了海原西断裂近期的大震危险性。     

深井水氡主要干扰因素及映震效能分析

对甘肃省玉门青6井和平凉泾川泾3井两口深水井的水氡及辅助项目观测资料采用多元逐步回归、相关距平、一阶差分等方法进行处理，分析并排除了主要干扰因素，显示出两井在肃南5.4级、托莱6.0级和礼县5.1级地震前有明显异常，对两井的映震效能和地震预报前景进行了评价。     

川滇菱形块体边界的现今地壳形变

依据川滇菱形块体边界带上所有跨断层测量资料，分析了各场地所处断裂的近期形变特征，结果表明；川滇菱形块体北段形变活动逐渐减弱，南段逐渐加强，各条断裂分别显示出不同的变形特征；菱形块体的现今水平形变以左旋走滑运动为主，垂直形变速度较低，且呈上盘抬升与下降交替出现的运动特征，部分场地的形变异常变化与其邻近的地震活动密切相关。     

用现今小震推断洪洞、临汾两次历史大震的震源断层

山西临汾地区是一个历史强震多发区，1303年和1695年发生了洪洞（M＝8）和临汾（M＝73／4）两次特大地震，这两次地震所在区域至今仍在持续不断的小地震活动，具有明显的大震区地震长期活动特征，我们对临汾无线传输地震台网记录的1987－1999年期间发生的1670次中，小地震重新进行了震源定位，根据对这些地震震源位置三维空间分布特征和震源机解制的分析，认为洪洞地震的震源断层应是长80km，埋深5－26km的NNE走向，高倾角的右旋走滑型断层，而临汾地震的震源断层是长70km，埋深5－22km的NWW走向，高倾角的左旋走滑型断层。这与洪洞，临汾两次大震极震区的等震线及该地区应力场的构造环境是吻合的。     

1999年山西大同Ms 5.6地震的震源断层

大同震区先后在 1989、1991和 1999年发生MS >5地震 ,利用大同遥测地震台网的记录资料进行比较精确的地震序列震源定位 ,结合宏观烈度分布和震源机制解资料 ,详细地分析对比了 3次子序列的异同。结果显示 ,1999年MS5 .6地震的震源断层是走向NWW、长 16km、宽12km、埋深 5km以下、倾角近直立的左旋走滑断层。而前 2个子序列是NNE为主的右旋走滑断层活动所致 ,表明地震破裂方向发生了变化。这种 2个以上方向先后出现、并且强弱有别的地震破裂是普遍存在的 ,表明震源环境的复杂程度与地震序列的类型有关。虽然震区存在NE向的大王村断裂和NW向的团堡断裂 ,但目前没有证据说明震源断层和 2条构造断层连通。 3次子序列的震源断层都是走滑断层 ,也和 2条构造正断层有别。 1999年的子序列可能属于新破裂。