Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE ROLE OF VORTICAL AND DIVERGENT COMPONENTS OF WIND STRESS IN ENSO CYCLE

The 1960-1991 monthly mean FSU (Florida State University)wind stress data aredecomposed into a vortical and a divergent component with each of which to force the model oceanin the context of a two-layer tropical Pacific model.Evidence suggests that for the seasonalvariation the ocean forcing does not produce a realistic cold tongue using either of the componentsand the tongue will not be effectively improved in its intensity and pattern even if the componentsare doubled or halved:the utilization of climatic mean wind stress(no decomposition is done of thewind stress)that contains its seasonal variation will lead to a realistic SST distribution on which isimposed,separately,the interannual anomalies of each of the components so as to get the SSTApattern:under the action of the interannual anomaly of the vortical(divergent)component therearises qnite intense SSTA oscillation marked by noticeable ENSO periods(feeble SSTA withhigher oscillation frequency for obscure ENSO periods),thereby illustrating that the roles of thetwo components differ from each other in the genesis of SST variation on a seasonal and aninterannual basis such that a realistic cold tongue pattern follows under the joint effects on themodel ocean of the two components of wind stress while rational E1 Nino/La Nina phenomenaresult under the forcing of an anomalous wind stress vortical component.Moreover,the divergentcomponent is innegligible in generating a mean climatic condition of the ocean sector but of lessimportance compared to the vortical component in ENSO development.     

Tides in the Tongan Region of the Pacific Ocean

Tidal levels and currents in the Tongan region of the Pacific were simulated using a two-dimensional frequency-domain finite element model. The eight major diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituents were modeled successfully, using open boundary conditions taken from a global tidal model based on the Topex/Poseidon satellite altimeter. Comparison of model results with observations from the single tide gauge site in the area were later used to adjust the boundary conditions. The validity of omitting horizontal eddy viscosity from the finite element model was checked by running an equivalent finite difference model. The results show that although the submarine Tongan ridge does not appear to trap tidal energy, there are residual tidal currents and possible recirculations which are capable of influencing biological productivity around Tonga. The model results are reduced to a simple method for predicting tidal heights in outlying areas, based only on the tidal calendar for the capital, Nuku'alofa.     

物理实验中的不确定度评定

阐述了不确定度的定义、来源、分类及用不确定度评定测量结果的一些表示方法。分析了误差和不确定度的区别。最终给出了测量不确定度的评定。     

祁连山中东段地区中小地震震源机制和区域应力场

利用哥伦比亚大学 GCMT 目录给出的祁连山中东段地区中强地震震源机制资料,研究较大区域（34°-41°N,100°-106°E）的应力场;利用该地区布设的中法微震数字监测台网多年监测资料和甘肃数字监测台网资料,使用 P 波和 S 波初动及振幅比联合反演方法,反演中小地震震源机制解和发震应力场。结果表明,地区构造应力大致为北东40°-45°水平向压应力;景泰地区主压应力方向约北东45°,绝大多数地震为走滑型。天祝-古浪地区有相当部分的逆断层地震分布,主压应力方向约60°,P 轴仰角在10°左右优势分布,大致为水平应力场。这与大区域构造应力场和断层实际分布基本一致。     

Study of Influence of Regional Geodynamic Background on Strata Behaviors in China's Tongxin Mine

Strata behaviors are mainly affected by regional geodynamic background. The influence of rock mass stress and energy distribution on strata behaviors in the Tongxin mine is studied in terms of regional tectonic movement, seismic activity and tectonic stress field. The results show that the extrusion lifting movement of Kouquan fault adjacent to the Tongxin mine results in the stress concentration in the rock of the Carboniferous coal bed and accumulation of a large amount of elastic energy and forms structural background of Tongxin mine. Due to various seismic activities in the mine area, the strain energy is known to reach much higher levels, up to 0.5×10⁸ J^1/2. Since the stratigraphic structure is sensitive to the mining operation, the strain energy could cause strong strata behaviors. A special geological structure model of the Tongxin mine is established based on the geodynamic division method. The distribution of regional structure stress field is determined by the rock mass stress analysis system. Based on this model, Tongxin mine is divided into five areas with high stress, eight areas with low stress and eight areas with gradient stress. The strong strata behaviors mostly occur in high stress areas. These results could provide guidance to predict the strength of regional or mine pressure and control strata behavior in different areas.     

伽师强震群震源特征及震源机制力学成因分析

应用改进的主地震相对定位法对17年伽师强震群3级以上地震进行了精确定位,根据较强地震的空间分布和震源机制解推断出伽师震群的发震构造为北北西向的雁行断裂.根据伽师震群地震的2177个P波初动方向记录,计算了伽师震群的平均震源机制解.基于Silver的震源模型,由震源谱推断了伽师震群主要地震的破裂方向,破裂尺度及应力降.文中最后用右阶雁行断裂的数值模型计算了伽师震群的发震构造所产生的扰动应力场的空间分布图像,用其解释了序列地震震源机制的多样性和低应力降现象,并认为特定的雁行发震构造与强震的多发性有关.     

台湾海峡及其邻区现今构造应力场数值模拟

本文将台湾海峡及其邻区划分为多个具有不同弹性参数的等厚区块,并利用基于弹性理论的有限元数值模型,以GPS观测速度和由震源机制解(FMS)得到的主应力轴方向为约束条件,计算了该研究区的现今构造应力场.结果表明:(1)最大主应力轴在台湾海峡中部和台湾岛弧中部大致为NW-SE向,在东北部呈顺时针旋转,而在南部呈逆时针旋转;(2)研究区水平位移场大致以23°N为界,南强北弱,且在北部呈顺时针旋转,南部呈逆时针旋转;(3)东沙-澎湖-北港隆起因强度大于周边盆地区而成为"阻挡带",导致在其南北出现两个反向的构造逃逸区,并且隆起东南区形变特别强烈,而其西北区则相对较弱.     

三维脆性破裂的拉应力判据

用线弹性断裂力学对连续介质中三维裂纹(KⅢ≠0)破裂的拉应力断裂准则提出了补充性假说和相应的计算方法（第一主微分面定点法）。对于给定应力强度因子Ki（i=Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ）的裂纹问题,从理论上给出了初始破裂面完整形式的解析表示或数值计算结果。推导结果是,三维拉张破裂的初始破裂面是以破裂点为顶点的广角锥面,跨在原始裂纹面的前缘,它的外缘为螺旋线,锥面的每一条母线都与过该线的第一主微分面重合。大量的这样的初始破裂面叠错密接,互不相交。推算的结果与已有的三锥破裂实验结果基本符合。把补充后的拉应力判据和最大拉应力理论相比较,发现在应力分量只保留奇异项的情况下,这两种判据是等价的;但如果对应力分量作零阶项修正,则两种判据只在三维(KⅢ≠0)问题中等价,在二维(KⅢ=0)问题中不完全等价。     

人为因素导致的地面沉降

天然气、石油、地下水、地热热水和卤水等流体运移出地下储存地层时,地层耗尽了流体而产生压缩变形,这些变形传递到地表表面就形成了人为的地面沉降。在本文中:(1)列举了世界上主要的地面沉降区域;(2)论述了引发地面沉降的力学机制,这些可以量测的地面沉降发生在地下含水层体系、天然气气田和石油油田之上;(3)描述了目前可以用于地面沉降测量和岩石变形原位测试的技术手段;(4)简要介绍了几个地面沉降预测的数值模型;(5)说明了用于控制地面沉降发展和减轻相关环境影响的几种防治措施。