Effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures: Empirical evidence from French flood disasters

Recent destructive flood events and projected increases in flood risks as a result of climate change in many regions around the world demonstrate the importance of improving flood risk management. Flood-proofing of buildings is often advocated as an effective strategy for limiting damage caused by floods. However, few empirical studies have estimated the damage that can be avoided by implementing such flood damage mitigation measures. This study estimates potential damage savings and the cost-effectiveness of specific flood damage mitigation measures that were implemented by households during major flood events in France. For this purpose, data about flood damage experienced and household flood preparedness were collected using a survey of 885 French households in three flood-prone regions that face different flood hazards. Four main conclusions can be drawn from this study. First, using regression analysis results in improved estimates of the effectiveness of mitigation measures than methods used by earlier studies that compare mean damage suffered between households who have, and who have not, taken these measures. Second, this study has provided empirical insights showing that some mitigation measures can substantially reduce damage during floods. Third, the effectiveness of the mitigation measures is very regional dependent, which can be explained by the different characteristics of the flood hazard in our sample areas that experience either slow onset river flooding or more rapid flash and coastal flooding. Fourth, the cost-efficiency of the flood damage mitigation measures depends strongly on the flood probability faced by households.     

唐山沿海地区地面沉降渗流固结耦合模拟研究

唐山沿海地区经济在迅速发展,沿海地区城市化规模在扩大,地下水开采量增大,地面沉降加剧.文中分析了唐山沿海地区的水文地质条件,概化为3个含水层、3个弱透水层,共6个压缩层.建立了三维地下水流和垂向一维压缩完全耦合模型.采用25a的观测资料校正模型,计算值与实测值拟合较好,模型具有较高的仿真性和适用性.预测了10a末的地面沉降;当地下水以现有开采量开采时,沉降中心累计达1192.3mm, 10a沉降352.3mm,沉降速率为35.23mma-1;当地下水的开采量在现有开采量的基础上增加10%时,沉降中心累计达1260.8mm, 10a沉降420.8mm,沉降速率为42.08mma-1; 当地下水的开采量在现有开采量的基础上减小10%时,沉降中心累计达1088.7mm, 10a沉降247.9mm,沉降速率为24.79mma-1.增大10%的地下水开采量, 10a地面沉降量增加68.5mm;减少10%的地下水开采量, 10a地面沉降量减少104.4mm.因此,控制地下水开采量是控制地面沉降的有效方法.     

基于蒙特卡罗法的地热资源评价——以河北省雄县地热田为例

蒙特卡罗方法也称为统计模拟方法,是一种以概率统计理论为指导的数值计算方法,被广泛的应用于金融工程学、宏观经济学、计算物理学等领域,取得了良好的应用效果。本文介绍了蒙特卡罗法的基本数学原理及在地热资源评价中的应用方法,结合河北省雄县地热田,阐述了地热资源评价过程中蒙特卡罗计算模型的建构方法,随机变量经验分布函数的构造、抽样方法,以及资源量分布函数的建立方法。评价结果显示,在回收率为0.1%~1%的条件下,热储100年内可开采热能位于1.53×10~(17)J~9.49×10~(17)J之间的概率为90%,平均可开采热能值为5×10~(17)J,100年内可开采的热能大于2.39×10~(17)J的可能性为90%,评价结果可为雄县地热资源开发利用的未来规划提供科学依据。     

重庆西部表层土壤有机碳储量与密度分布

利用多目标区域地球化学调查数据,估算了重庆西部地区表层土壤有机碳密度和储量。结果表明,重庆西部地区表层(0~20 cm)土壤有机碳储量为41 038 589 t,平均密度为2 929 t·km-2。从地貌类型看,低山(2 984 t·km-2)和中山(2 986 t·km-2)区土壤有机碳密度较高,丘陵区(2 628 t·km-2)最低,山地土壤有机碳储量最丰富。不同类型土壤中,石灰土有机碳平均密度最高(5 043 t·km-2),其次为黄壤(3 756 t·km-2),紫色土最低(2 329 t·km-2),紫色土有机碳储量最大。就土地利用方式而言,林地土壤有机碳平均密度最高(4 071 t·km-2),耕地土壤处于中等水平(2 752 t·km-2),居民及建筑用地有机碳密度最低(2 416 t·km-2),耕地土壤有机碳储量最大。与第二次土壤普查数据对比发现,该区土壤有机碳储量和密度呈降低趋势,表层土壤作为碳源向大气释放碳,尤其是江津、潼南地区土壤有机碳密度分别降低了56.7%、45.1%。     

智能地质调查大数据应用体系架构与关键技术

地质调查数据主要由结构化和非结构化多样性的数据构成。由非结构化多样性数据文件组成的报告,由于技术原因,长期以来一直以传统的目录文件方式进行存储。这种存储方式导致数据的查询、统计、更新等操作不但低效,而且非常不利于检索、查询、挖掘等应用,使得数据服务能力极低。通过把Hadoop生态体系融入中国地质调查云平台架构,基于Hadoop HDFS和HBase存储架构,建立非结构化地质数据基础内容库存储组织模式,采用Lucene全文搜索引擎架和地质领域本体词库构建快速随机访问的索引文件机制,改变了多样化、碎片化的复杂地质调查非结构化数据的存储、阅读、搜索和应用模式,为智能地质调查提供精确、快速服务奠定基础。     

长江流域陆地水储量与多源水文数据对比分析

从趋势性、滞后性及相关性三方面,对2002—2013年间GRACE重力卫星反演的长江上游与中游陆地水储量与模型模拟土壤含水量、实测降水和实测径流数据进行了对比分析,并从干旱强度及发展时间两方面评估了标准化陆地水储量指数SWSI、标准化降水指数SPI、标准化径流指数SRI和标准化土壤含水量指数SSMI对区域性干旱的表征能力.结果表明:长江上游地区陆地水储量与降水、径流和土壤水蓄量均无显著变化,而中游地区陆地水储量则与水库蓄量同样具有显著性增加,反映人类活动对中游地区陆地水储量变化有很大影响;各指标指示的各等级干旱月份数量基本相当,但各指标反映的特旱具体月份有较大差别,基于GRACE数据构建的SWSI指标对特大干旱的指示性不好;对比各指标对上游与中游地区干旱事件发展时间,体现出水文干旱、农业干旱对气象干旱存在一定的迟滞关系.     

Potential and Suitability Evaluation of CO2 Geological Storage in Major Sedimentary Basins of China, and the Demonstration Project in Ordos Basin

From 2010 to 2012, the China Geological Survey Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey (CHEGS) carried out the project “Potential evaluation and demonstration project of CO2 Geological Storage in China”. During this project, we developed an evaluation index system and technical methods for the potential and suitability of CO2 geological storage based on China’s geological conditions, and evaluated the potential and suitability of the primary basins for CO2 geological storage, in order to draw a series of regional scale maps (at a scale of 1:5000000) and develop an atlas of the main sedimentary basins in China. By using these tools, we delineated many potential targets for CO2 storage. We also built techniques and methods for site selection and the exploration and assessment of CO2 geological storage in deep saline aquifers. Furthermore, through cooperation with the China Shenhua Coal to Liquid and Chemical Co., Ltd., we successfully constructed the first coal-based demonstration project for CO2 geological storage in deep saline aquifers in the Yijinhuoluo Banner of Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which brought about the basic preliminary theories, techniques, and methods of geological CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers under China’s geological conditions.     

‘I hate sand … it gets everywhere’—Phanerozoic sedimentary recycling from NW Africa

Over 10,000 published detrital zircon ages have been reprocessed (applying a +10% normal and reverse concordance range) and analysed to understand the evolution of the detrital zircon record of north-west Africa during the Phanerozoic. Using dissimilarity and clustering analysis, shifts in detrital zircon populations allow interpretation of the evolution of source regions and source to sink systems throughout the Phanerozoic within the West Gondwana superfan. Previous thermochronology and field studies conducted across north-west Africa indicate significant and sustained shifts in source regions in Meso-Cenozoic times which are not recorded in the detrital zircon geochronology record. This discrepancy is most notable for Mesozoic to modern source to sink studies focused on the evolution of the Atlasic rift and opening of the Atlantic and Tethyan Oceans to the west and north respectively. Our results indicate a high degree of similarity between samples from Cambrian times onwards due to successive phases of sediment recycling. This highlights the need to integrate detrital zircon analysis with other techniques to provide confident reconstruction of sediment routing systems across Morocco. This systematic review also reveals the ubiquitous occurrence of Mesoproterozoic zircons within Moroccan sediment. No basement of this age is known from north-west Africa—often described as the ‘Mesoproterozoic Gap’, which was thought to be a diagnostic feature of sediment derived from the West African Craton. However, zircons of this age form 7% of all analysed zircons and are present in sediments from at least 700 Ma. The presence of this population is interpreted as strongly diagnostic of provenance from either the Amazonian Craton or the Eastern Gondwana Orogen within Central Africa. Their presence in the Moroccan detrital record from the Neoproterozoic onwards raises questions about the position of the West African Craton in the Proterozoic, and for the spatial extent of Mesoproterozoic orogeny within north Africa.     

Mesozoic–Cenozoic multistage tectonic evolution of the Pamir: Detrital fission-track constraints from the Tajik Basin

Knowledge of the tectonic history of the Pamir contributes to our understanding of both the evolution of collisional orogenic belts as well as factors controlling Central Asian aridification. It is, however, not easy to decipher the Mesozoic–Cenozoic tectonics of the Pamir due to extensive Neogene deformation in an orogen that remains largely understudied. This study reports detrital apatite and zircon fission-track (FT) ages from both the eastern Tajik Basin sedimentary rocks and Pamir modern river sands. These FT data, supported by vitrinite reflectance and zircon and apatite U–Pb double dating, suggest that the majority of the FT ages are unreset and record exhumation stages of the Pamir, which has served as the source terrane of the Tajik Basin since the Cretaceous. Furthermore, we combine the new data with a compilation of published detrital apatite and zircon FT data from both the Tajik Basin sedimentary rocks and Pamir modern river sands, to explore the Mesozoic–Cenozoic tectonic history of Pamir. Deconvolved FT Peak Ages document two major Mesozoic exhumation events associated with the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic Cimmerian orogeny that reflects accretion of the Pamir terranes, as well as the Early–early Late Cretaceous deformation associated with the northward subduction of the Neo-Tethys Ocean beneath Pamir. The compiled data also show significant Late Eocene–Neogene exhumation associated with the ongoing formation of the Pamir, which peaks at ca. 36, 25, 14 and 7 Ma.     

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis approach for GIS-based multicriteria landslide susceptibility mapping

GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly being used in landslide susceptibility mapping. However, the uncertainties that are associated with MCDA techniques may significantly impact the results. This may sometimes lead to inaccurate outcomes and undesirable consequences. This article introduces a new GIS-based MCDA approach. We illustrate the consequences of applying different MCDA methods within a decision-making process through uncertainty analysis. Three GIS-MCDA methods in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and Dempster–Shafer theory are analyzed for landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) in the Urmia lake basin in Iran, which is highly susceptible to landslide hazards. The methodology comprises three stages. First, the LSM criteria are ranked and a sensitivity analysis is implemented to simulate error propagation based on the MCS. The resulting weights are expressed through probability density functions. Accordingly, within the second stage, three MCDA methods, namely analytical hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted average (OWA), are used to produce the landslide susceptibility maps. In the third stage, accuracy assessments are carried out and the uncertainties of the different results are measured. We compare the accuracies of the three MCDA methods based on (1) the Dempster–Shafer theory and (2) a validation of the results using an inventory of known landslides and their respective coverage based on object-based image analysis of IRS-ID satellite images. The results of this study reveal that through the integration of GIS and MCDA models, it is possible to identify strategies for choosing an appropriate method for LSM. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the integration of MCDA and MCS can significantly improve the accuracy of the results. In LSM, the AHP method performed best, while the OWA reveals better performance in the reliability assessment. The WLC operation yielded poor results.