Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

The Quantitative Identification of Regional Mine and Natural Earthquakes and Its Application

INTRODUCTIONThe structural mine earthquake in coal mines refers to the quake induced by excavationengineeringthatleadstorupturingor change of geological structure and weakness surfaceintheinteriorof rock mass.According to the origin,mine earthquakes can b…     

Ancient sand-rich submarine fans: depositional systems, models, identification, and analysis

Sand-rich submarine fans are radial or curved in plan view depending on the slope of the basin floor. They occur isolated or in coalescing systems. The fans' average lateral extent measures close to 25 km and their thickness usually less than 300 m. The thickness of outer fan sequences averages around 120 m and that of middle fan successions around 160 m. Rarely reported inner fan sequences have a maximum thickness of 80 m.

The formation of sand-rich fans is closely related to tectonic activity. Their sediment is coarse-grained and compositionally immature as indicated by significant feldspar content due to close provenance and rapid transport by short rivers with a steep gradient controlled by tectonism. Tectonic activity also provides for narrow shelves making the fans relatively insensitive to sealevel changes. Formation of sand-rich fans typically occurs in restricted continental basins. The tectonic settings are highly variable. Sand-rich fans typically receive their sediment through submarine canyons which intercept sand from longshore drift and/or are fed more or less directly by regional rivers.

The type of ancient fan system (radial, curved, isolated, coalescing) may be identified through paleocurrent map plots, facies map sketches, recognition of lateral thickness variations and sediment influx centers, as well as lateral bed correlations defining the minimum fan extent.

Important in distinguishing different environments of ancient fans are detailed measured sections, their comparison and correlation. Channelized inner fan and middle fan deposits may be distinguished from the unchannelized outer fan successions through bed correlation tests which reflect their different stratigraphic architectures and bedding patterns. Bedding in outer fan deposits (lobes) is relatively simple, parallel, and regular. The lateral bed continuity is relatively high. Channel fills, especially those of middle fan distributary channels, display a complicated bedding pattern with vertical and lateral random distribution of channel fills, axial erosion, and bed convergence towards the channel margins. Channel fills exhibit only linear bed continuity. Thus, the probability in carrying out local to regional scale lateral bed correlations is almost exclusively limited to outer fan deposits.

The measured sections will help further distinguish fan environments by revealing: (1) different facies associations in outer fan sequences (mainly B, C and D) and middle fan successions (mainly A, B, C, D, and channel margin facies); (2) greater average bed and layer thicknesses in middle fan as opposed to outer fan successions (“bed” and “layer” as used herein); (3) more frequent amalgamation surfaces in channel fills than in unchannelized outer fan deposits; (4) more frequent tabular amalgamation surfaces in outer fan sections; (5) more frequent nontabular amalgamation surfaces in channel fills; and (6) more frequent dish structures in middle fan than outer fan successions.

Rarely exposed fan valley fills may be identified by coarse conglomerates. Moreover, in proximity to fan valley fills, relatively mud-rich sediments may be observed that derive from the depositional system of the basin slope.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

Under stress permeability determination of the Meuse/Haute-Marne mudstone

In the underground waste isolation projects such as the ANDRA'one in the site of Bure, the transport properties of the surrounding rock mass is of fundamental importance. To measure very low permeability, we use the modified version of the pulse test proposed by Hsieh et al. [Hsieh, P.A., Tracy, J.V., Neuzil, C.E., Bredehoeft, J.D., Silliman, S.E., 1981. A transient laboratory method for determining the hydraulic properties of ‘tight’ rocks — I. Theory. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr. Vol. 18, pp. 245-252] which enables the intrinsic permeability, k, and the specific storage coefficient, S_s, of rocks such as mudstone to be characterized. In this paper, the special effort performed on the laboratory apparatus design, to ensure a good sensitivity of the rock response with respect to both parameters, k and S_s, is presented. In addition, two parameters identification procedures are proposed: the graphical method given by Hsieh et al. [Hsieh, P.A., Tracy, J.V., Neuzil, C.E., Bredehoeft, J.D., Silliman, S.E., 1981. A transient laboratory method for determining the hydraulic properties of ‘tight’ rocks — I. Theory. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr. Vol. 18, pp. 245-252] and a parameter identification based on the solution of an inverse problem. The efficiency of the apparatus design and the parameters identification procedures is then demonstrated though some pulse tests performed on the Meuse/Haute-Marne mudstone.     

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhancement of backtracking search algorithm for identifying soil parameters

In this paper, an enhanced backtracking search algorithm (so-called MBSA-LS) for parameter identification is proposed with two modifications: (a) modifying the mutation of original backtracking search algorithm (BSA) considering the contribution of current best individual for accelerating convergence speed and (b) novelly incorporating an efficient differential evolution (DE) as local search for improving the quality of population. The proposed MBSA-LS is first validated with better performance than the original BSA and some other typical state-of-the-art optimization algorithms on a benchmark of soil parameter identification in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness. Then, the efficiency of the MBSA-LS is further illustrated by two representative cases: identifying soil parameters from both laboratory tests and field measurements. All comparisons demonstrate that the proposed MBSA-LS algorithm can give accurate results in a short time. Finally, to conveniently solve the problems of parameter identification, a practical tool ErosOpt for parameter identification is developed by integrating the proposed MBSA-LS and some other efficient algorithms for readers to conduct the parameter identification using optimisation algorithms.     

X射线衍射技术应用于宝石鉴定-合成及晶体结构研究进展

因宝石检测常附带无损要求、宝石评价具科学性和不确定性等特点,X射线衍射(XRD)在宝石学这门矿物学的分支学科中的应用具有特殊性,其应用领域主要集中在三个方面。①宝石鉴定领域:对单晶宝石和多晶宝石进行物相鉴定、宝石产地特征研究以及宝石矿物多型的种类划分等。例如根据XRD图谱,可将品种繁多的微晶石英隐晶质变种玉髓中不同的SiO₂质矿物相精确区分;通过黏土矿物成分及其含量可将鸡血石中"地"的种类进行划分。②宝石矿物的晶体结构研究:对成分复杂的单晶宝石进行晶体化学分析、获取矿物类质同象替代情况、利用结晶度划分宝石品质。例如晶格参数中的c/a比值可将绿柱石的Al八面体类质同象替代和Be四面体类质同象替代进行区分;软玉中通过XRD数据计算出的结晶度与软玉的品质关系密切。③宝石学研究技术的开发:对宝石的优化处理过程进行监测,在宝石合成过程中检验矿物晶形大小、结晶质量及内应力等,以有机宝石的晶体结构为基础的人工养殖技术研究。例如尖晶石在热处理过程中,Mg离子由四面体中的T位迁移至八面体中的M位,导致M-O和T-O键长随温度变化,并反映在尖晶石的色调中;在托帕石合成过程中,XRD数据显示770~800℃时形成含氟托帕石(与天然托帕石结构相同),而在950℃和1000℃出现含氟托帕石离解成刚玉和莫来石。目前,我国在宝石学的XRD应用方面起步较晚,国外在宝石鉴定、优化与合成方面的应用相对成熟。本文认为,该技术与扫描电镜、质子探针等分析技术的联用仍有很大发展空间。     

分数阶混合随机泛函微分方程的能控性

主要研究了分数阶混合随机泛函微分方程的能控性.在无限维空间下,假设所考虑方程线性部分生成半群不是紧的,使用非紧性测度技术和Mönch不动点定理,给出了方程能控性充分条件,并通过一个例子说明了结论的有效性.