Study of the crust and mantle using magnetic surveys by Magsat and other satellites

Among the first measurements made from near-Earth orbiting satellites were measurements of the magnetic field. The sources of that field lie both within the Earth, in its core and crust, and in the surrounding ionosphere and magnetosphere. This article summarizes some of the methodology and results for studies of the Earth’s mantle and crust. Mantle conductivity studies can be made either by studying signals impressed on the Earth from outside, e.g., the ionosphere or magnetosphere, or by studying signals originating in the core and transmitted through the mantle. Crustal field studies begin with a careful selection of the data and subsequent removal of core and external fields by some sort of filtering. Average maps from different local times sometimes differ, presumably due to the remaining presence of fields of external origin. Several techniques for further filtering are discussed. Where large-area aeromagnetic maps are available, crustal maps derived from satellite data can be compared with upward continued data. In general, the comparisons show agreement, with some differences, particularly in and near the auroral belts. The satellite data are further reduced by various methods of inverse and forward modelling, sometimes including reduction to the pole (RTP). These techniques are generally unstable at the equator. Common methods of stabilizing the inversions include principle components analysis and ridge regression. Because of the presence of the core field, the entire crustal contribution from the field is not known. Also, there is a basic nonuniqueness to the inverse solutions. Nevertheless, magnetizations that are interpretable can be derived.     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.     

Micro-scale modelling in the study of plume evolution in heterogeneous media

The migration of contaminants in heterogeneous aquifers involves dispersive processes that act at different scales. The interaction of these processes as a plume evolves can be studied by micro-scale modelling whereby two scales, a local- or micro-scale and an aquifer- or macro-scale, are covered simultaneously. Local-scale dispersive processes are represented through the local dispersion coefficient in the transport equation, while large-scale dispersion due to heterogeneities is represented through the resolution of the flow field and the diffusive exchange between streamtubes. The micro-scale model provides both the high degree of resolution compatible with local-scale processes, and the extent required for the approach to asymptotic conditions, using grids of up to a million nodal points. The model is based on the dual potential-streamfunction formulation for flow, and the transport problem is formulated in a natural coordinate system provided by the flownet. Simulations can be used to verify stochastic theories of dispersion, without the restrictive assumptions inherent in the theory. For the two-dimensional case, results indicate convergence of the effective dispersivity to the theoretical macrodispersivity value. Convergence takes place within a travel distance of about 50 correlation lengths of the hydraulic conductivity field. However, the approach taken to asymptotic conditions, as well as the macrodispersivity value, may differ for different realizations of the same medium. The influence of early-time events such as plume splitting on the asymptotic convergence remains to be investigated.     

新型随机地震动模型

在研究结构的随机地震反应时，要用大量的符合场地条件的地震记录作为输入数据。但强震历史记录却不是每个地区都有的，因此根据符合场地条件的现有地震记录建立随机地震动模型具有重要意义。本文利用中国抗震规范2001版修正选取的样本波作为目标波，考虑了幅值和频率的双重非平稳性，建立了新型随机地震动模型——改进的时变ARMA模型随机地震动模型。通过使用残差的卡方检验法，对多种非平稳ARMA模型生成的模拟波进行检验；同时又比较丁模拟波与目标波的功率谱密度图和反应谱图。结果证明：此法能够更精确地反映不同场地条件地震动的频谱和幅值的真实内容，从而建立符合目标场地条件的更为有效的模拟地震动，为相关研究与工程设计架起一座桥梁。     

细颗粒石英光释光测年:简单多片再生法

文中报道了细颗粒石英光释光测年中测量等效剂量的一种可靠技术——简单多片再生法。该技术的核心是引入单片再生法中试验剂量校正感量变化的功能,即在天然和再生多测片光释光信号测量后,再对各测片辐照以试验剂量,利用试验剂量的光释光信号响应对各测片归一化,同时校正可能发生的感量变化。从方法学上,这一技术具有以下优点1)试验剂量可以校正各测片的感量变化;2)对各测片归一化,克服了实验数据分散度的问题;3)通过对比简单多片再生法与单片再生法在测年中的表现,证实简单多片再生法可以克服单片再生法中可能发生的光释光信号的积累问题。最后,文中通过测定参考年龄样品,即洛川剖面末次冰期马兰黄土(L1)的开始堆积年龄,验证了简单多片再生法的可靠性,即在提高测量准确度和精度的同时,更节约时间     

Stochastic modelling of soil moisture dynamics in a grassland of Qilian Mountain at point scale

Stochastic modeling of soil moisture dynamics is crucial to the quantitative understanding of plant responses to water stresses,hydrological control of nutrient cycling processes,water competition among plants,and some other ecological dynamics,and thus has become a hotspot in ecohydrology at present.In this paper,we based on the continuously monitored data of soil moisture during 2002―2005 and daily precipitation date of 1992―2006,and tried to make a probabilistic analysis of soil moisture dynamics at point scale in a grassland of Qilian Mountain by integrating the stochastic model improved by Laio and the Monte Carlo method.The results show that the inter-annual variations for the soil moisture patterns at different depths are very significant,and that the coefficient of variance(CV) of surface soil moisture(20 cm) is almost continually kept at about 0.23 whether in the rich or poor rainy years.Interestingly,it has been found that the maximal CV of soil moisture has not always appeared at the surface layer.Comparison of the analytically derived soil moisture probability density function(PDF) with the statistical distribution of the observed soil moisture data suggests that the stochastic model can reasonably describe and predict the soil moisture dynamics of the grassland in Qilian Mountain at point scale.By extracting the statistical information of the historical precipitation data in 1994―2006,and inputting them into the stochastic model,we analytically derived the long-term soil moisture PDF without considering the inter-annual climate fluctuations,and then numerically derived the one when considering the inter-annual fluctuation effects in combination with a Monte-Carlo procedure.It was found that,though the peak position of the probability density distribution significantly moved towards drought when considering the disturbance forces,and its width was narrowed,accordingly its peak value was increased,no significant bimodality was observed in the soil moisture dynamics under the given intensity of random fluctuation disturbance.     

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.     

Equivalent force control method for generalized real‐time substructure testing with implicit integration

This paper presents a new method, called the equivalent force control method, for solving the nonlinear equations of motion in a real‐time substructure test using an implicit time integration algorithm. The method replaces the numerical iteration in implicit integration with a force‐feedback control loop, while displacement control is retained to control the motion of an actuator. The method is formulated in such a way that it represents a unified approach that also encompasses the effective force test method. The accuracy and effectiveness of the method have been demonstrated with numerical simulations of real‐time substructure tests with physical substructures represented by spring and damper elements, respectively. The method has also been validated with actual tests in which a Magnetorheological damper was used as the physical substructure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earthquake‐resistant structural design through energy demand and capacity

An energy‐based earthquake‐resistant structural design method is proposed. The proposed method uses specific input energy spectra, modal or time‐history analyses, and energy distribution among structural members. For a given member strength and stiffness, a relationship between the energy attributable to damage absorbed by a member and its cumulative ductility demand can be determined. Member strength, stiffness and energy capacity are design parameters which are simultaneously used in the design. The method can avoid soft‐storey design. The damage is measured based on a cumulative basis considering earthquake magnitude, frequency, and duration. Tests have been carried out to determine energy absorbing capacities of various structural components. More efforts are needed to make the energy‐based earthquake‐resistant structural design practical, but ssimple formulations for this method are possible. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大地测量相关观测抗差估计理论

相关观测异常诊断、质量控制是测量数据处理领域亟待解决的难题之一。分别从方差膨胀模型和相关权元素压缩模型入手研究了相关观测的质量控制理论和方法；给出了误差影响函数；构造了方差膨胀函数和权因子收缩函数；利用观测量的等价协方差阵和等价权矩阵讨论了相关观测质量控制的计算方法。该等价协方差矩阵和等价权矩阵不仅保持了原有协方差矩阵和权矩阵的对称性，而且保持了原有协方差矩阵的相关性不变。计算结果表明异常观测的方差膨胀法和等价权法能有效地控制异常观测对参数估值的影响。