大地测量相关观测抗差估计理论

相关观测异常诊断、质量控制是测量数据处理领域亟待解决的难题之一。分别从方差膨胀模型和相关权元素压缩模型入手研究了相关观测的质量控制理论和方法；给出了误差影响函数；构造了方差膨胀函数和权因子收缩函数；利用观测量的等价协方差阵和等价权矩阵讨论了相关观测质量控制的计算方法。该等价协方差矩阵和等价权矩阵不仅保持了原有协方差矩阵和权矩阵的对称性，而且保持了原有协方差矩阵的相关性不变。计算结果表明异常观测的方差膨胀法和等价权法能有效地控制异常观测对参数估值的影响。     

拟合推估新解之一——两步解法

拟合推估的一般模式AmnmZ BrnrY=L Δ（1）通常用双拟合法则（2）求解，它有一定的缺陷^[1] 。本文提出一种解法，分为2步：1、将Y项并入Δ，在单拟合下求X的优估值X。2、把X项纳入L，Y作确定未知量，也在单拟合下求其估值Y。     

组合GPS／GLONASS精密定位的观测值随机模型

为了获得组合GPS／GLONASS精密定位结果，该文从理论和数值实例两方面分析了研究组合GPS／GLONASS观测值随机模型的重要性，提出了两种利用观测值的误差残差估计随机模型的方法，即验后估计法和方差－协方差迭代法。理论和数值结果表明，这两种随机模型估计方法与采用经验随机模型相比，可以提高整周模糊度解算的可靠性和定位精度，所提出的观测值随机模型估计方法理论上更严格，实践上可行，并建议采用方差－协方差迭代法估计组合GPS／GLONASS精密定位的观测值随机模型。     

陀螺经纬仪跟踪式观测逆转点数据的平差模型

针对跟踪式定向观测中的逆转点数据 ,采用Schuler Wolf模型替代传统的等权处理 ,并对该模型进行了改造 ,包括初始信号作为参数求解、关联系数 ρ进行迭代估计等 ;用多项式衰减替代理想情况下的指数衰减 ,作为平差处理的函数模型。实测数据解算结果表明 ,由此组成的逆转点平差模型具有解算精度高、残差为白噪声信号、参数求解比较稳定等优点。     

相关稳健估计及其在测量数据

在对现有的基于等价权的稳健估计的弊端进行分析的基础上,直接从方差膨胀模型出发,建立起一套基于调整观测量方差-协方差阵的相关稳健估计方法,并通过算例证明其估计思想、模型的正确性和可行性.     

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF INTEGRATED GPS/GLONASS CARRIER PHASE-BASED POSITIONING

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Evolutionary properties of stochastic models of earthquake accelerograms: Their dependence on magnitude and distance

An approach to generate artificial earthquakeaccelerograms on hard soil sites is presented. Eachtime-history of accelerations is considered as arealization of a non-stationary gaussian stochasticprocess, with statistical parameters depending onmagnitude and source-to-site distance. In order tolink the values of these parameters for each groundmotion record with the corresponding magnitude andsource-to-site distance, semi-empirical functionalrelations called generalized attenuationfunctions are determined. The set of realground-motion time histories used to obtain thesefunctions correspond to shocks generated at differentsources and recorded at different sites in thevicinity of the southern coast of Mexico. The resultsshow significant dispersion in the parameters of themodel adopted, which reflect that associated with thereal earthquakes included in the sample employed.The problem of conditional simulation of artificialacceleration time histories for prescribed intensitiesis briefly presented, but its detailed study is leftfor a companion paper. The criteria and modelsproposed are applied to generate two families ofartificial acceleration records for recurrenceintervals of 100 and 200 years at a specific sitelocated in the region under study. The results shownin this article correspond to acceleration timehistories recorded on firm ground for earthquakesgenerated at the subduction zone that runs along thesouthern coast of Mexico, and cannot be generalized tocases of earthquakes generated at other sources orrecorded at other types of local conditions. Thismeans that the methods and functional forms presentedhere are applicable to these other cases, but thevalues of the parameters that characterize thosefunctions may differ from those presented here.     

边坡稳定可靠性的随机有限元分析

随机有限元法可以处理土性参数的变异性和空间相关性。对二阶摄动随机有限元法的摄动理论和程序进行了研究，提出了偏导矩阵的组集方法，采用正态分布随机变量的正交变换法来提高计算效率。考虑土性参数随机场作用和土性指标之间的互相关性，建立边坡局部抗剪和总体稳定性可靠度的随机有限元分析模型，对某实际土坡进行了可靠度计算，计算结果较为符合实际。     

The “peeling” method to process apparent resistivity data for earthquake precursory monitoring

Considering the fact that there is only one pair of fixed potential poles in one direction used to monitor the resistivity changes under the observatory station which may indicate process of earthquake preparation, based on the precondition that the resistivity structure is 1-dimensional under the observatory station, and by way of equivalent model put forward by the authors, this paper suggests a kind of method trying to separate the resistivity changes in deep layers from that of the shallow layer. Analysis shows that, to obtain the same measured data with the same array, any a multi-layered geo-electrical structure can be equivalently taken as a two-layered one, we call it equivalent model. In this paper, the resistivity and thickness of the upper layer of the equivalent model are equal to that of the first layer of the original one, the resistivity of the lower layer of the equivalent model is obtained with calculation according to the requirement of equivalence, its value is relevant with the resistivities and thicknesses of all layer of the original model except for the first one, so the resistivity change of the equivalent layer can indicate the synthetic effect of variation of all layers of the original model except for the first one. The primary research results show that this method can work well. Foundation item: Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (100146).     

Upscaling Uncertain Permeability Using Small Cell Renormalization

Sedimentary rocks have structures on all length scales from the millimeter to the kilometer. These structures are generally associated with variations in rock permeability. These need to be modeled if we are to make predictions about fluid flow through the rock. However, existing computers are not powerful enough for us to be able to represent all scales of heterogeneity explicitly in our fluid flow models—hence, we need to upscale. Small cell renormalization is a fast method for upscaling permeability, derived from an analogue circuit of resistors. However, it assumes that the small scale permeability distribution is known. In practice, this is unlikely. The only information available about small scale properties is either qualitative, derived from the depositional setting of the reservoir, or local to the wells as a result of coring or logging. The influence of small scale uncertainty on large scale properties is usually modelled by the Monte Carlo method. This is time-consuming and inaccurate if not enough realisations are used. This paper describes a new implementation of renormalization, which enables the direct upscaling of uncertain small-scale permeabilities to produce the statistical properties of the equivalent coarse grid. This is achieved by using a perturbation expansion of the resistor-derived equation. The method is verified by comparison with numerical simulations using the Monte Carlo method. The prediction of expected large-scale permeability and its standard deviation are shown to be accurate for small cell standard deviations of up to 40% of the mean cell value, using just the first nonzero term of the perturbation expansion. Inclusion of higher order terms allows larger standard deviations to be modeled accurately. Evaluation of cross-terms allows correlations of actual cell values, over and above the background structure of mean cell values. The perturbation method is significantly faster than conventional Monte Carlo simulation. It needs just two calculations whereas the Monte Carlo method needs many thousands of realisations to be generated and renormalized to converge. This results in significant savings in computer time.