水资源约束下的河西走廊城市经济脆弱性时空演变及其影响因素

城市经济脆弱性作为当前脆弱性研究中的重要领域,为人-地系统耦合研究提供了新的视角,并为城市可持续健康发展提供有益的决策支持和管理方法。依据城市经济脆弱性内涵,基于暴露度、敏感性、适应能力构建了城市经济脆弱性评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法评价河西走廊地区及区域内五市的城市经济脆弱性,并采用障碍度模型识别影响区域城市经济脆弱性变化的因素。结果显示：（1）2006—2015年,河西走廊地区城市经济脆弱性呈现出先曲折下降（2006—2011年）再波动上升趋势（2012—2015年）;（2）河西走廊地区的城市经济脆弱性具有明显的空间特征,经历了东西高、中部低到整体较高的演变过程;（3）阻碍河西走廊地区城市经济脆弱性降低的障碍因子由适应能力逐步转变为暴露度。针对河西走廊地区各市主要障碍因子,提出针对性优化措施。     

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云南边境生态环境数据组织管理研究

生态环境数据合理有效地组织与管理,对于开展区域生态环境研究意义重大。本文首先探讨了生态环境数据组织管理的基本流程。在此基础上,指出生态环境数据分类编码与元数据的规范化,以及生态环境模型的设计是实现生态环境数据组织管理的难点所在。随后,笔者以云南边境地带生态环境数据为例,提出了生态环境数据分类编码与元数据方案。并且在深入剖析生态环境数据特征的基础上,重点研究了生态环境数据的建模方案,提出了生态环境辅助数据模型(EcoADM)。最后,简要介绍了云南边境生态环境数据库管理原型系统的建设。     

Impacts of land use and land cover changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield determined using the SWAT model

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes strongly affect local hydrology and sediment yields.The current study focused on a basin in the Brazilian Amazon and had the following three objectives:(1) to perform an effective diagnosis of flow and sediment yield,(2) to evaluate the impacts of LULC changes over the last 40 years on the hydro-sedimentological variables,and (3) to investigate the impacts of the possible trends or breaking points in the flow,surface runoff,and sediment yield series.The Soi...     

俄罗斯东部区域经济发展差异研究

区域差异历来是国内外学者关注的热点问题,区域差异长期扩大、过分悬殊,会产生严重的负面影响;而处于转轨时期的俄罗斯,由于各种矛盾导致经济发展缓慢、区域差异不断扩大。针对俄罗斯东部地区人口分布特点,利用超越对数计量模型深入分析后发现,俄罗斯东部地区科技贡献率都较低,经济增长主要是依靠劳动力和物质资本的投入,并且劳动力对经济贡献率远高出物质资本的贡献率。要转化优势、加快经济增长,就必须把自然资源与科技创新和劳动力发展等结合起来,提高人力与物质资本的直接产出弹性和外溢弹性,是俄罗斯东部、乃至整个俄联邦增强经济实力,在国际贸易中争取最大利益的重要途径之一。     

近20年京津唐地区不透水面变化的遥感监测

不透水面是衡量城市化程度的重要指标之一,对京津唐城市群的不透水面进行深入研究,可以量化城市群扩张过程及其影响,对该区域多城市协调发展及规划布局具有重要意义。本文结合高分辨遥感影像、生长季及落叶季的Landsat TM遥感影像和夜间灯光数据等,采用分类和回归树（Classification and rRegression Tree, CART）算法,构建了适于京津唐地区不透水面盖度提取的技术方案,获取了京津唐地区1995-2016年共5期地表不透水面盖度专题信息,并分析了地表不透水面的时空演变规律,结论为：① 适于京津唐地区不透水面盖度提取的CART算法的最佳输入变量组合为：生长季和落叶季的Landsat TM图像以及对应的夜间灯光数据;其次为生长季Landsat TM遥感图像和夜间灯光数据组合方案。利用该组合方案,ISP估算输出结果的交叉验证精度R值可以达到约0.85,可以满足地表不透水面纵向对比分析的需要。② 从地表不透水面总面积数量值来看,1995-2016年京津唐主体城市区域整体上呈增长趋势,其中2011-2016年地表不透水面积增加愈加明显;③ 从地表不透水面盖度值的高低来看,1995-2016年京津唐中、高盖度不透水面的占比都是在不断增长的,低盖度不透水面占比存在少量下降现象,且京、津、唐3城市的主体城区各阶段变化差异较大,反映出了各城市扩张具有各自不同的时空演变特征。     

A Statistical Analysis of Trends for Warm and Cold Spells in Uppsala by Means of Counts

Statistical studies of extremes are of interest in the climatic sciences, in particular trends of periods of unusually warm or cold weather, which could be labelled warm and cold spells, respectively. We study the yearly number of spells in Uppsala, Sweden which from a data‐analytic point of view truly are counts, and employ theory and methods from the field of regression models for counts. A possible trend for the period 1840–2012 was investigated. The trend for warm spells is positive and demonstrated to be larger in magnitude compared with the one for cold spells, and is found to be statistically significant. The methodology could be extended to analyse other climate indicators.     

高空急流对一次强沙尘暴过程沙尘传输的影响

使用GRAPES_SDM沙尘暴数值模式,对2011年4月28-30日中国北方强沙尘暴天气进行分析,讨论高空急流在此次过程中对沙尘传输的影响,得出以下结论:（1）GRAPES_SDM沙尘暴模式较好地模拟了此次沙尘暴过程的范围和强沙尘暴中心,整体模拟效果较好;（2）沙尘天气发生时间及移动路径与200 hPa高空急流的加强、移动发展有很好的对应关系;（3）高空强纬向风速的加强能够促使中低层形成垂直环流圈,其下沉支流使高空动量有效下传到近地面,进而在地面形成大风及扬沙和沙尘暴天气,强沙尘暴中心位于此垂直环流圈的下沉支;（4）等熵位涡与高空急流及地面沙尘浓度分布演变有很好的对应关系,等熵位涡位于高空急流北侧,地面沙尘浓度中心位于高空急流出口区、等熵位涡中心西南侧、等值线密集带;高层高值位涡区向下延伸的路径与高空急流北侧纬向风速等值线密集带有非常好的对应关系。本文还通过对高空急流轴线动力、热力结构垂直剖面的分析,探讨了高空急流对大范围沙尘天气影响的可能机制。     

Evaluation of an empirical orthogonal function–based method to downscale soil moisture patterns based on topographical attributes

Soil moisture influences many hydrologic applications including agriculture, land management and flood prediction. Most remote‐sensing methods that estimate soil moisture produce coarse resolution patterns, so methods are required to downscale such patterns to the resolutions required by these applications (e.g. 10‐ to 30‐m grid cells). At such resolutions, topography is known to affect soil moisture patterns. Although methods have been proposed to downscale soil moisture based on topography, they usually require the availability of past high‐resolution soil moisture patterns from the application region. The objective of this article is to determine whether a single topographic‐based downscaling method can be used at multiple locations without relying on detailed local observations. The evaluated downscaling method is developed on the basis of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of space–time soil moisture data at a reference catchment. The most important EOFs are then estimated from topographic attributes, and the associated expansion coefficients are estimated on the basis of the spatial‐average soil moisture. To test the portability of this EOF‐based method, it is developed separately using four data sets (Tarrawarra, Tarrawarra 2, Cache la Poudre and Satellite Station), and the relationships that are derived from these data sets to estimate the EOFs and expansion coefficients are compared. In addition, each of these downscaling methods is applied not only for the catchment where it was developed but also to the other three catchments. The results suggest that the EOF downscaling method performs well for the location where it is developed, but its performance degrades when applied to other catchments. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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