数值试验中时间步长的选取

建立一个二维的海陆风静力模式来讨论时间步长的选取，发现定时间步长不宜取得太大或者太小，必须是某个适当的值。变时间步长的模拟效果要比定步长理想。时间步长越大，海风中心强度模拟值变小。     

海平面上升对中国沿海重要工程设施与城市发展的可能影响

由于自然和人为双重因素作用，２１世纪前半期中国沿海平原地区相对海平面上升幅度可能达到全球平均值的２－３倍，由此将给沿海地区自然环境演变和社会经济发展带来一系列不利影响，本文分析了未来相对海平面上升５０ｃｍ对中国沿海重要的海岸防护、水利与港口码头工程以及城市供水、防洪与滨海旅游业的可能影响方式与程度。     

Coastal Massachusetts pond development: edaphic,climatic, and sea level impacts since deglaciation

Kettle ponds in the Cape Cod National Seashore in southeastern Massachusetts differ in their evolution due to depth of the original ice block, the clay content of outwash in their drainage basins, and their siting in relation to geomorphic changes caused by sea-level rise, barrier beach formation, and saltmarsh development. Stratigraphic records of microfossil, carbon isotope, and sediment changes also document late-glacial and Holocene climatic changes.The ponds are separated into 3 groups, each of which follow different development scenarios. Group I ponds date from the late-glacial. They formed in clay-rich outwash, have perched aquifers and continuous lake sediment deposition. The earliest pollen and macrofossil assemblages in Group I pond sediments suggest tundra and spruce-willow parklands before 12 000 yr B.P., boreal forest between 12 000 and 10 500 yr B.P., bog/heath initiation and expansion during the Younger Dryas between 11 000 and 10 000 yr B.P., northern conifer forest between 10 500 and 9500 yr B.P., and establishment of the Cape oak and pitch pine barrens vegetation after 9500 yr B.P. Sedimentation rate changes suggest lowered freshwater levels between 9000 and 5000 yr B.P. caused by decreased precipitation on the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Lake sediment deposition began in the middle Holocene in Group II ponds which formed in clay-poor outwash. These ponds date from about 6000-5000 yr B.P. In these ponds sediment deposition began as sea level rose and the freshwater lens intersected the dry basins. The basal radiocarbon dates of these ponds and stable carbon isotope analyses of the pond sediments suggest a sea-level curve for Cape Cod Bay. Holocene topographic changes in upland and the landscape surrounding the ponds is reconstructed for this coastal area.Group III ponds in the late Holocene landscape of the Provincelands dunes originated as interdunal bogs about 1000 yr B.P. and became ponds more recently as water-levels increased. Peat formation in the Provincelands reflects climatic changes evident on both sides of the Atlantic region.This is the 8th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.     

大同镇川堡井水位阶变与地震关系初析

统计了大同镇川堡井１９８８年６月～１９９１年１２月原始记录曲线的水位阶变资料，认为该井水位阶变可能反映了口泉断裂的蠕动，也反映了两次大同—阳高地震前应力应变作用的过程。     

大同断陷盆地及其大震危险性

以最新研究成果，全面、系统地阐述了大同断陷盆地的地貌特征、晚新生代地层、火山与玄武岩、主要活动断裂、新构造单元与地震活动的空间分布、大同－阳高两次地震的地震构造。在此基础上探讨了今后10年左右的时间内，大同断陷盆地的地震危险性。     

On the rifting dynamics of plate divergence and magma accumulation at oceanic ridge axes

Rifting dynamics at spreading axes is governed by two processes: the large-scale plate divergence and the local magma accumulation in the crust-mantle transition layer. Both evolve simultaneously. A model is developed particularly for the situation in Iceland where a well studied rifting episode occurred in the Krafla volcanic system 1975–1984. Both the divergence and the buoyant rise of magma create tensile deviatoric stress in the axial region, but while divergence generates an altogether extensional stress field, uprising of buoyant melt produces tension only near the axis but compression of the sides. The buoyant rise is driven by the differential pressure gradient in rock and melt. The processes are studied with a two-dimensional finite-element routine. Presently thermal effects are neglected. The model parameters are density difference, size of the buoyant body, externally applied stress field, mechanical properties of rock and melt. Relatively small amounts of divergence and small increases of buoyancy are shown to generate axial tension which can overcome the tensile strength. Axial tension produced by buoyant bodies can even overcome lateral compression. Observed long intervals of quiescence require either large rock strength, quasi-continuous stress relaxation, small buoyant bodies, and/or a compressive deviatoric stress normal to the axis during much of the time between rifting episodes. Buoyant rise and injection of melt must be important in generating compression.     

Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties

Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change.     

Coastal processes and environmental hazards: the Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venetian (Italy) littorals

The Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venice (Italy) coastlands have experienced significant saltwater contamination of the phreatic aquifer, coastal erosion, hydrodynamic changes and relative sea level rise processes due to natural and man-induced factors. These factors expose coastal areas to morpho-hydro-geological hazards, such as soil desertification, frequency and degree of flooding, littoral erosion, and the silting of river mouths and channels. Man-made interventions and actions, such as beach mining, construction of coastal structures and exploitation of aquifers without an adequate knowledge of the hydrology setting and an adequate management program, worsen these natural hazards. Uncontrolled human activity induces environmental damage to the overall coastal plains. The coastal plains play an important role in the social/economic development of the two regions based on land use, such as agriculture, horticulture, breeding, and tourism, as well as industry. Results of investigations on saltwater contamination, sea level rise and morphological changes recently performed in these two coastal areas are presented here.     

An Estimate of Global Mean Sea-level Rise Inferred from Tide-gauge Measurements Using Glacial-isostatic Models Consistent with the Relative Sea-level Record

This study is concerned with the influence of the glacial-isostatic adjustment caused by the last Pleistocene deglaciation on the present-day sea level. The viscoelastic deformation caused by the time-variable ice and ocean loads is simulated by computing the resulting perturbations for a spherical, self-gravitating, incompressible, Maxwell-viscoelastic earth model. The associated variation of the earth rotation is described in terms of the Liouville equation, which is solved by means of the MacCullagh formulae. This allows the determination of the vertical displacement and geoid height and, thus, the solution of the sea-level equation. We test several viscosity and ice models and evaluate them by comparison of the computed response with the Holocene relative sea-level record. Using the optimum combination of viscosity and ice models, we then estimate the influence of the last Pleistocene deglaciation on the tide-gauge measurements. A comparison between the observational and residual linear trends for the tide-gauge measurements shows a significant reduction of the variance and geographical variability for the latter, in particular for the formerly ice-covered regions of North America and Scandinavia. The favoured value determined for the global mean sea-level rise is (1.46±0.2) mm a⁻¹.