南京城市住宅“售租比”时空格局与分异机理

“售租比”是国内外学者测度房价健康水平或泡沫风险的关键指标之一。利用中国房价行情平台提供的南京居住小区2009~2017年期间分季度平均售租价格信息,采用GIS空间分析等方法,考察南京中心城区“售租比”空间格局与演变过程。研究发现：① 城市整体“售租比”随房价波动变化明显,2016~2017年间快速增长;② 分异度先降后升,以城区内部差异为主,城区间差异越来越小;③ 高“售租比”小区多集聚于河西新城、江北新区等房价增速较快的投资热点区域。南京住宅“售租比”过快上升和空间离散加剧,意味着城市房价快速增长的合理性在降低。从地租视角解读,绝对地租决定着城市整体“售租比”的高低,级差地租和垄断地租则影响着城市内部“售租比”的空间分异。“售租比”可为判断城市内部房价相对合理性提供重要依据,但能否通过该指标准确预判城市房价风险程度及空间格局尚有待深入研究。     

Geographic Patterns of Craft Breweries at the Intraurban Scale

This article examines the intraurban geography of craft breweries in ten cities across the United States. First, through an exhaustive literature review, we outline both supply- and demand-side factors that might cause craft breweries to cluster. Second, we empirically test whether these establishments tend to cluster within cities using spatial statistical techniques. Many communities are attempting to support the establishment of more craft breweries as a way to boost tourism and economic development. The findings from this article aid in this discussion by providing insights into how craft brewers locate and the factors that could influence their location decision behavior. Our findings suggest that craft brewers do in fact cluster. There are both supply and demand factors responsible. On the supply side, the collaborative environment within the industry and the artisan nature of the industry's products allows for benefits of clustering to outweigh the costs associated with this behavior. On the demand side, the emergence of “brewery districts” allows individual brewers to enjoy the reputation benefits associated with the district in terms of increased foot traffic from locals and visitors looking to sample a variety of beers.     

Finding Common Ground: A Critique of Subsumption Theory and Its Application to Small-Scale Forest Carbon Offsetting in Uganda

Carbon markets as a policy tool to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases continue to be controversial, especially in developing countries. It is thus refreshing that Carton and Andersson (2017 Carton, W., and E. Andersson. 2017. Where forest carbon meets its maker: Forestry-based offsetting as the subsumption of nature. Society &; Natural Resources 30 (7):829–43.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) undertook a field investigation of a transnational forest carbon offset project in Uganda. However, I am concerned that assumptions of structural Marxism that underwrite subsumption theory may have led the authors to see the project as inherently conflict ridden and exploitative and to neglect actual benefits. Their presentation of the project’s local impact jarred with my own empirical research into this project, undertaken in 2009, as well as more recent news accounts. While my field effort preceded the authors’ by 6 years, I attribute our different interpretations largely to theoretical and methodological differences. Evidence I present below suggests considerable alignment between the interests of transnational carbon markets and Ugandan smallholder farmers. Additional fieldwork might be able to resolve these differences in interpretation.     

粤港澳区域联动发展的关键科学问题与重点议题

在新时期新背景下,实现粤港澳区域联动发展具有紧迫性、必要性和重大现实意义。本文认为研究粤港澳区域联动发展需要以区域一体化理论体系、“全球—地方”尺度理论、区域空间相互作用理论体系为主要的理论基础。其关键科学问题是研究“一国两制”下粤港澳尺度的区域联动理论,探索粤港澳区域联动的机制、关键因素、模式与路径;提出了粤港澳区域联动发展关注的4个重点议题：①粤港澳区域一体化/协同理论的研究与探索;②粤港澳地位与作用研究;③粤港澳联动的多尺度、多主体影响机制与模式研究;④粤港澳联动发展的实施路径研究。     

Li2SO4溶液中离子间的缔合相互作用:基于密度泛函理论和分子动力学模拟的研究

基于密度泛函理论,使用B3LYP/aVDZ方法对[Li_2SO_4(H_2O)_n]~0(n=0~10、18)水合团簇的结构和性质进行了系统地研究,并结合Car-Parrinello分子动力学(CPMD)模拟了不同浓度的Li_2SO_4溶液结构,目的在于理解在Li_2SO_4溶液中离子间缔合相互作用及可能存在的物种。研究发现,对于[Li_2SO_4(H_2O)_n]~0(n=0~10、18)水合团簇,双配位单齿螯合接触离子对结构比双配位双齿螯合接触离子对结构更稳定,溶剂共享离子对结构最不稳定。同时,CPMD模拟结果表明,在3.09和3.17 mol/kg的Li_2SO_4溶液中,双配位单齿螯合接触离子对结构仍然是主要物种。以上结果表明在饱和的Li_2SO_4溶液(3.16 mol/kg)中,Li~+和SO_4~(2-)离子间的相互缔合作用主要以双配位单齿螯合接触离子对结构的物种存在,而具有双配位双齿螯合离子对结构的物种占少数,溶剂共享离子对结构几乎不存在。     

The life cycle of contributors in collaborative online communities -the case of OpenStreetMap

Over the last two decades, online communities have become ubiquitous, with millions of people accessing collaborative project websites every day. Among them, the OpenStreetMap project (OSM) has been very successful in collecting/offering volunteered geographic information (VGI). Very different behaviours are observed among OSM participants, which translate into large differences of lifespan, contribution levels (e.g. Nielsen’s 90–9-1 rule) and attitudes towards innovations (e.g. Diffusion of innovation theory or DoIT). So far, the literature has defined phases in the life cycle of contributors only based on the nature of their contributions (e.g. role of participants and edits characteristics). Our study identifies the different phases of their life cycle from a temporal perspective and assesses how these phases relate to the volume and the frequency of the contributions from participants. Survival analyses were performed using both a complementary cumulative distribution function and a Kaplan-Meier estimator to plot survival and hazard curves. The analyses were broken down according to Nielsen and DoIT contributors’ categories to highlight potential explanatory variables. This paper shows that two contribution processes combine with three major participation stages to form six phases in contributors’ life cycle. The volume of edits provided on each active day is driven by the two contribution processes, illustrating the evolution of contributors’ motivation over time. Since contributors’ lifespan is a universal metric, our results may also apply to other collaborative online communities.     

基于时空统计降尺度的淮河流域夏季分月降水概率预测

针对淮河流域水资源短缺、洪涝、干旱并存的问题,基于国家气候中心第二代季节气候模式的集合回报数据集(1991—2014年),建立时空相结合的统计降尺度模型,提前1—3个月预测该流域夏季分月降水,应用ROC(relative operating characteristics)评分评估比较了不同集合预测方案的预测技巧。交叉检验结果表明,样本数取18、20、22、28时,集合预测方案对3、4、5月三个起报时次预测的夏季各月降水技巧预测均高于模式预测技巧。2015—2017年的独立样本检验进一步表明该统计降尺度模型能够明显降低3月、5月起报的6月和8月的降水预测偏差。认为可尝试将该降尺度方法应用于淮河流域夏季降水预测及进一步的流域水文预测。     

地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统设计与实现

地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统是基于国省统一的CIMISS数据环境,准实时生成日、候、旬、月、年值等统计产品的业务系统,能够满足用户对准实时质控后地面气象资料统计值的业务需求。本文主要介绍地面气象资料实时历史一体化统计加工系统的开发,从软件的需求分析、统计方法、功能实现、关键技术等方面阐述了如何在技术上实现地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统。通过运行策略配置,实现了系统定时自动运行,进一步丰富了CIMISS系统地面气象资料的产品库。     

中原城市群城市引力范围界定及演变格局

通过构建反映城市综合实力的指标体系,运用熵值法对中原城市群30个城市2005,2010,2015年的综合实力分别进行测算与评定,运用基于扩展断裂点模型的加权Voronoi图方法对中原城市群各城市引力范围进行划分并展示了城市间引力界线的变化趋势,揭示了中原城市群30个城市3个年份的城市引力范围时空演变特征和变化规律。结果表明:3个年份,综合实力较高的地区基本分布在中原城市群中部和北部,东南部城市综合实力较弱,排名靠后,呈现出中北高、东南低两极化的发展规律;目前中原城市群城市引力范围格局中,郑州市的引力范围最大,其次是洛阳市、邯郸市,已经形成了以郑州为城市群核心的空间格局;3个年份,中原城市群的城市影响范围演变格局总体较为稳定,局部地区空间吸引范围变化较为明显,中、北部城市发展态势良好,影响范围有向北扩大的趋势;城市引力范围与其综合实力不完全呈正相关关系。     

基于闪电定位数据的地闪密度修订

利用湖北省闪电定位系统(Lightning Location System,LLS)资料,用网格地闪密度数据表征地闪的空间分布,测站距离因子表征探测站布局,对2015年地闪空间分布特征进行分析,结果表明,其密度与因子之间存在负相关,其中雷电流幅值5~30kA的密度分量与因子之间存在显著性相关,大于30kA的密度分量与因子相关不显著。同时发现探测站布局对地闪空间分布的疏密程度有一定的影响,因此有必要对密度进行修订,以消除测站布局的影响。运用线性回归方法及其残差理论,建立了网格地闪密度的修订模型和相对探测效率的统计模型。验证了密度分段修订和不分段修订结果的一致性。通过对理论探测效率和相对探测效率的对比分析,论证了地闪密度修订方法和相对探测效率统计方法的可行性。