An evaluation of systems for the integrated assessment of capture fisheries

Integrated fishery assessments are intended to take an integrated and wholistic view of fisheries management, to provide comprehensive systems-based evaluations of the sustainability of individual fisheries and their products. Using guidance derived from decision theory and management science, we develop 18 criteria to evaluate the likely effectiveness of nine integrated fishery assessment systems. The assessment systems do not consistently consider four key criteria: the socio-economic impacts of fisheries, the provision of food security, the local relevance of the assessment to the fishery under assessment, and the independent peer review of assessment outcomes. Other important areas of weakness include the lack of appropriate consultation processes relating to both the design of the assessment system and the outcomes of fishery assessments, and limitations in the quality of data and information used in assessments. Improvements will be needed in these areas across all the systems we evaluated if fishers, consumers, managers and other stakeholders are to be provided with consistently reliable assessment outcomes, and an assurance of the sustainability of capture fisheries.     

浮体间距对多浮体系统水动力系数的影响

根据三维线性势流理论，采用格林函数法，对多浮体系统的水动力系数进行了数值分析。数值算例中给出了在固定波频下水动力系数与浮体间相对位置关系曲线。水动力系数的变化幅度随着浮体间距离增大而变小。随着浮体间距的变化，水动力系数极值的出现具有明显的规律，相邻的极大值(或极小值)的间距为半个波长或一个波长。     

Inverse reconstructions of ecosystem flows in investigating regime shifts: impact of the choice of objective function

Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.     

Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

波浪作用下海床动力反应的数值分析

近海和离岸建筑物的基通常处于连续不断的小风浪作用之下，可将其变形视为弹性。基于二维广义Biot理论，提出了线性或非线性波浪作用下饱和弹性海床动力应应的时域有限元数值解法。静力平衡条件和Biot方程组成的边值方程可视为其特例，在比较算例中，数值计算得到的孔压和有效应力幅值沿海床深度的分布与解析解十分吻合。土骨架和孔隙流体的加速度对海床动力反应的影响很小。具体算例表明，线性波沿缓坡海床传播时，土层中超静孔压和有效应力幅值随之增大，有可能发生滑动坡坏。所提出的数值解法能够灵活地处理非线性波浪荷载，海底复杂地质条件和波浪沿缓坡传播等复杂情况。     

On the geologic structure of the Explora Escarpment (Weddell Sea,Antarctica) revealed by satellite and Shipboard data evaluation

Bathymetric, gravity, and magnetic data from Antarctic expeditions with RV POLARSTERN and satellite altimeter data from the Geosat Geodetic Mission are analysed using methods from geostatistics and geophysical inverse theory.The Explora Escarpment represents the edge between the Antarctic Continental Shelf and the Weddell Abyssal Plain. It is an important link in the reconstruction of Gondwana breakup, but a feature as large as the 2000 m deep Wegener Canyon was only discovered in 1984, when extensive bathymetric, gravimetric, and magnetic surveys with RV POLARSTERN began.Geostatistics, the theory of regionalized variables, is applied to integrate dense surveys of Wegener Canyon and sparse observations in adjacent areas into maps with full coverage of the 230 km by 330 km area at 10°–20° W/70°–72° S. The resultant highresolution bathymetric and gravity maps reveal detailed structures of the Explora Escarpment. Using geophysical inversion, the gravity terrain effect is calculated. Satellite data are used for their better coverage, but have much lower resolution. Nevertheless, the structures of Wegener Canyon and other more prominent features appear with surprisingly good correlation also in the Geosat altimeter data. While it was initially supposed that Wegener Canyon is purely an erosional structure, the magnetic map now provides evidence of the canyon's tectonic origin.     

Theory and Practice of Soft Clay Engineering

-The shear strength and deformation properties of soft clay are discussed first. Then some methods for predicting the performance of soft clay foundation are proposed. Finally, case histories are presented to illustrate some discussed aspects of soft clay.     

Heavy metals in marine sediments of Taranto Gulf (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy)

Al, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Ti and Zn concentrations have been determined in surface sediment samples collected in the Taranto Gulf (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy) in order to evaluate their levels and spatial distribution in this important area of the Mediterranean Sea. For various metals, the geoaccumulation index has been calculated as a criterion to assess if their concentrations represent contamination levels or can be considered as background levels. The results show that metals concentrations in sediments can be considered near the background levels found in the Mediterranean Sea.Analytical results have been elaborated by using a Geographical Information System (GIS) software to show metals accumulation areas. Using multivariate statistical analysis, we evaluate the possibility to distinguish the sampling stations, in relation to their geographical position. Results have showed metals distribution in the Taranto Gulf is principally influenced by industrial and urban wastes, located mostly in the northern coastal area of the Ionian Sea. Rivers in the Basilicata region and prevailing anticlockwise marine currents are further factors influencing metal accumulation in sediments.     

基于AHP法和灰色模式识别理论的海底管道系统路由定量风险评估

根据海底管道路由潜在风险的特点及风险类型,提出了一种将层次分析法（AHP法）和灰色模式识别理论相结合的海底管道系统路由定量风险评估方法,该方法利用AHP确定风险评价指标体系,运用灰色模式识别理论,建立识别结果标准,并结合实际工程进行计算,计算结果表明该方法是可行的.