Reservoir operation by staging due to climate variability

The changing environment enhances the hydrological cycle and increases the frequency of extreme floods. In this paper, the impacts of climate variability on flood season segmentation are determined and the scientific basis for determining corresponding flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) is provided. Climate variation was determined and then the flood season was divided into several sub-seasons using the results of the set pair analysis method (SPAM) and four indices; peak floods crossing the transitional periods were sampled to obtain a design flood hydrograph; and, finally, seasonal FLWLs were determined for reservoir operation. The performance of this reservoir staging operation was evaluated for a case study in the Chengbihe Reservoir, China.     

Ecotourism and mass tourism in Southern Thailand: Spatial interdependence, structural connections, and staged authenticity

The desire to spend leisure time in natural settings represents a key factor behind the recent and rapid growth of ecotourism. A search by ecotourists for remote landscapes and locations has shaped the way in which geographers have defined ecotourism, but few scholars have explored, in detail, the mechanics of the spatial relationship between ecotourism and mass tourism, two forms of travel usually considered mutually exclusive in spatial terms. Using the island of Phuket — southern Thailands premier resort destination — as a case study, this paper investigates the spatial overlaps and connections between ecotourism and mass tourism and tests the assumption that ecotourism and mass tourism must exist spatially apart in order for the former to succeed. Despite Phukets association with mass tourism, and the small physical distances between built-up mass tourist areas and natural ecotourism settings, the communicative staging of natural authenticity allows ecotourism companies to convey geographical remoteness to tourists. Although ecotourism in Phuket must struggle constantly to overcome the perceptual impact of spatial proximity to resort locations, the tourist markets and business networks of the existing mass tourism industry remain crucial to the survival of ecotourism in this region. Thus, contrary to conventional notions that ecotourism and mass tourism must exist as separate entities, this paper argues that an interconnected, symbiotic, and spatially-contiguous relationship between the two is necessary in the case of Phuket.     

Performance of elevated tanks in<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> 7.7 Bhuj earthquake of january 26th, 2001

The current designs of supporting structures of elevated water tanks are extremely vulnerable under lateral forces due to an earthquake and the Bhuj earthquake provided another illustration when a great many water tank stagings suffered damage and a few collapsed. The more popular shaft type stagings suffer from poor ductility of thin shell sections besides low redundancy and toughness whereas framed stagings consist of weak members and poor brace-column joints. A strength analysis of a few damaged shaft type stagings clearly shows that all of them either met or exceeded the strength requirements of IS:1893-1984, however, they were all found deficient when compared with requirements of the International Building Code. IS:1893-1984 is unjustifiably low for these systems which do not have the advantage of ductility and redundancy and are currently being underestimated at least by a factor of 3 and need an upward revision of forces immediately.     

肾癌的CT分期诊断(附41例CT--病理对照)

本文对41例肾细胞癌进行CT——病理对照分析，探讨CT对肾癌术前分期诊断的价值。结果显示CT与病理分期的符合率为I期肿瘤78％，Ⅱ期肿瘤83％，Ⅲ期肿瘤75％，Ⅳ期肿瘤100％，总体符合率为85％。CT诊断淋巴结转移的敏感性是67％，静脉瘤栓100％，周围结构受侵100％。本文还讨论了CT对，肾癌术前分期的依据和失误的主要原因。     

数字化地震仪的响应及其使用

本文介绍数字化地震仪的分级结构、基础知识以及在频域和时域从数字化记录中除去模拟级仪器响应的方法     

基于Copula函数的太湖流域汛期洪涝灾害危险性分析

太湖流域位于长江入海口,地处中国沿海经济带和长江沿线内陆经济带的交汇处,是中国高度城镇化地区之一.流域汛期降水受到多重天气系统的影响,不同的天气系统带来时空分布各异的降水,给该地区城镇防洪排涝工作造成了巨大的挑战.本文基于Copula理论对太湖流域汛期洪涝风险进行研究,考虑了因降水主导因素不同所造成的流域洪涝风险的时空差异性.在时间角度,采用降水主导因素发生时间的概率分布,将汛期划分为梅汛期和台汛期;在空间角度,通过Copula函数,对研究区进行聚类划分;在此基础上,根据太湖流域防洪规划,对流域梅汛期和台汛期的洪涝风险进行分析.研究结果表明:①太湖流域的汛期划分为:6月24日7月21日为梅汛期,7月22日9月22日为台汛期;②根据各分区降水和太湖水位的联合分布函数拟合效果的优劣,在梅汛期,太湖流域被划分为P-Ⅰ区、P-Ⅱ区和P-Ⅲ区;在台汛期,整个流域的降水作为一个整体,不分区;③到2025年,太湖流域在梅汛期和台汛期出现排涝不利情境的风险概率分别为2.4%和1.1%.本文的研究方法可以为太湖流域设计暴雨的调整、洪水资源的利用以及防洪排涝实时调度的决策提供科学参考.     

新疆土层应力地震异常类型初步分析

自1998年8月起,新疆地区开展土层钻孔应力测量,先后建成7个台。期间在新疆及邻区,多次发生中、强震。在部分地震前,应力仪记录到了异常,其异常类型大致有3种:(1)年变畸变型,主要表现为打破年变规律的畸变,异常时间在3个月以上;(2)阶变型异常,以快速跃变为特点,一般幅度较大;(3)波动型异常,以张压交替变化为显著特点。随着新疆土层应力测量资料的不断积累和震例的逐步增多,依据其异常类型特征有可能对地震三要素的预测有所帮助。