闽南沿海地区不同日观测次数大气稳定度的对比

本文通过地处闽南沿海地区崇武气候站不同日观测次数大气稳定度的对比分析表明 :采用 8个时次和 4个时次观测记录所统计的稳定度频数 ,误差较小(与 2 4个时次比较 ,下同 ) ,对重要结论无大影响 ,能够较准确地描述大气稳定度的状况和特征 ;而采用 3个时次观测资料分析 ,其误差大 ,甚至导致相反的结果 ,实际应用时必须慎重。     

A time-dependent numerical model of the mild-slope equation

On the basis of the previous studies, the simplest hyperbolic mild-slope equation has been gained and the linear time-dependent numerical model for the water wave propagation has been established combined with different boundary conditions. Through computing the effective surface displacement and transforming into the real transient wave motion, related wave factors will be calculated. Compared with Lin’s model, analysis shows that calculation stability of the present model is enhanced efficiently, because the truncation errors of this model are only contributed by the dissipation terms, but those of Lin’s model are induced by the convection terms, dissipation terms and source terms. The tests show that the present model succeeds the merit in Lin’s model and the computational program is simpler, the computational time is shorter, and the computational stability is enhanced efficiently. The present model has the capability of simulating transient wave motion by correctly predicting at the speed of wave propagation, which is important for the real-time forecast of the arrival time of surface waves generated in the deep sea. The model is validated against analytical solution for wave diffraction and experimental data for combined wave refraction and diffraction over a submerged elliptic shoal on a slope. Good agreements are obtained. The model can be applied to the theory research an d engineering applications about the wave propagation in a biggish area.     

1996-2022年黄河三角洲行水河口岸线稳定性研究

黄河清八汊现行河口自改汊以来发生了巨大变化,监测其岸线变化,探讨其稳定程度对海岸带可持续发展以及海岸带韧性评估具有重要意义。本研究利用GPS、GIS、RS技术从1996—2022年黄河三角洲行水河口的220幅遥感影像中推断出年平均海岸线位置,同时根据行水河口摆动次数划分为5个阶段,并以此为基础对海岸线变迁及其稳定性进行定量分析。结果表明：行水河口岸线长期处于动态变化过程中,整体呈淤进状态,各岸段岸线时空变化特征不同,最大侵蚀（-73.89m/a）区出现在两丁坝之间,最大淤积（393.20m/a）区出现在河口区附近。研究区90%的岸线表现为较强淤积至严重淤积,稳定性指数由两丁坝之间（0.135）、2007年出汊前旧河口（0.068）、2007年出汊后新生河口（0.006）依次降低。入海水沙量、河口位置变迁以及沿岸输沙是影响岸线稳定性出现时空差异的主要原因。     

基于随机分析的滑坡稳定性二元评价方法

对利用随机分析方法建立安全系数与可靠性相耦合的滑坡稳定性二元评价体系进行了探索。利用随机分析方法可确定滑坡安全系数的分布形态,计算出最大可能安全系数下的滑坡破坏概率P_f,用最大可能安全系数和可靠性得出可靠安全系数来评价该滑坡的稳定性。在折减后的安全系数的极限状态中,根据典型的不同最大可能安全系数及相应的临界破坏概率,建立了二元滑坡稳定性分区,用于滑坡稳定性评价。研究实例表明:利用随机分析方法建立这种二元体系是可行的,可以更加精确和客观的对滑坡稳定性做出评价。      

南海西沙海域永乐海底峡谷形成演化过程分析

远海孤立碳酸盐台地周缘发育了碳酸盐岩峡谷,对其开展研究有助于深刻理解碳酸盐碎屑沉积物的“源-汇”体系及深水油气成藏等方面。文章利用多波束测深、高分辨率二维多道地震等数据,精细刻画南海西沙海域永乐海底峡谷的地貌形态及内部充填特征,揭示该峡谷沉积演化过程,分析峡谷成因控制因素及稳定性。永乐海底峡谷形成演化可分为萌芽、汇聚和拓展3个阶段,随着演化过程的发展,峡谷规模及对沉积物输运作用增加。永乐海底峡谷形成及演化主要受古地貌隆起形成的负地形和沉积物重力流侵蚀作用影响。峡谷在第四纪以后仍有较明显的活动迹象。分析显示永乐海底峡谷是西北次海盆的重要物质输送通道,其沉积演化过程及稳定性对研究碳酸盐台地沉积物输运等深水沉积过程及岛礁工程建设具有一定参考意义。     

A hybrid ensemble method for improved prediction of slope stability

Accurate prediction of slope stability is a significant issue in geomechanics with many artificial intelligence (AI) techniques being utilised. However, the application of AI has not reached its full potential because of the lack of more robust algorithms. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid ensemble method for the improved prediction of slope stability using classifier ensembles and genetic algorithm. Gaussian process classification, quadratic discriminant analysis, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, adaptive boosted decision trees, and k‐nearest neighbours were chosen to be individual AI techniques, and the weighted majority voting was used as the combination method. Validation method was chosen to be the 10‐fold cross‐validation, and performance measures were selected to be the accuracy, the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Grid search and genetic algorithm were used for the hyperparameter tuning and weight tuning respectively. The results show that the proposed hybrid ensemble method has great potential in improving the prediction of slope stability. Compared with individual classifiers, the optimum ensemble classifier achieved the highest AUC value (0.943) and the highest accuracy (0.902) on the testing set, denoting that the predictive performance has been improved. The optimum ensemble classifier with the Youden's cut‐off was recommended for slope stability prediction with respect to the AUC value, the accuracy, the true positive rate, and the true negative rate. This research indicates that the use of the classifier ensembles, rather than the search for the ideal individual classifiers, might help for the slope stability prediction.     

3D stability of unsaturated soil slopes with tension cracks under steady infiltrations

Most classical approaches for evaluating the stability of soil slopes with cracks are performed under two-dimensional (2D) condition. Three-dimensional (3D) effect and suction-induced effect of unsaturated soils are generally neglected in assessing the slope stability. This paper develops a 3D limit analysis method to evaluate the stability of an unsaturated soil slope with tension cracks under steady infiltrations. The boundary-value problem is formulated based on the 3D rotational failure mechanism by taking the effects of suction, effective unit weight, and tension crack into account. A simplified method is proposed to calculate the work rate of unsaturated soil weight. A layer-wise summation method is developed based on the divergence theorem to calculate the internal energy dissipation rate. Detailed discussions are conducted to investigate the effects of suction and Poisson's ratio on the stability of unsaturated soil slopes. Examples are given to illustrate the 3D effect, the suction-induced effect as well as the effects of infiltration and water in cracks on the slope stability.     

Lateral strength and critical depth in infinite slope stability analysis

Infinite slope (IS) method is the simplest limit equilibrium method for slope stability analysis. It gives reliable results for slides where the longitudinal dimension prevails on the depth of the landslide. Usually results are conservative since ignoring the effects of the strength along lateral bounds. Here, starting from the assumption of considering the effects of the shear strength along lateral bounds by a rectangular cross section, a new expression of the safety factor is investigated, based first on an elliptical and then on a parabolic cross section of the landslide mass. The safety factor evaluated in this way can be quite different from those returned by the classic formula of IS model, in particular when the width of the landslide is narrow with respect to its depth and the ratio between the width and the depth of the landslide is lower than 5. An interesting implication of the proposed model is that if cohesion differs from zero, there is a ‘critical depth’, where the safety factor has a minimum value. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mathematical identification of diffuse and localized instabilities in fluid‐saturated sands

The mathematical properties of diffuse and localized failure modes in fluid‐saturated sands are investigated. The granular medium is modeled as an elastoplastic solid, and a recently proposed set of scalar indices, here referred to as moduli of instability, is used to identify the onset of potential bifurcations of the incremental response. First, the analytical properties of these moduli are discussed, stressing their dependence on the kinematic constraints associated with the imposed deformation modes. Then, by using an elastoplastic model for sands, drained and undrained loading paths are simulated under axisymmetric, plane‐strain and simple shear conditions. For each deformation mode, the instability moduli are computed and monitored throughout the simulations, with the purpose of elucidating the consequences of changes in control conditions. In addition, it is illustrated that suitable linear transformations allow the same strategy to be used to perform drained or undrained shear band analyses and predict the interval of possible band inclinations. The final comparison against literature experiments on loose Hostun sand shows that the instability moduli are indicators of the loss of resistance against specific modes of deformation. As a result, they can be used to identify and explain a number of failure mechanisms that can be commonly observed in experiments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability analysis on Jinjia dam hydropower project in Chongqing City

The stability analysis is one of the chief problems at hydropower stations. The Jinjia Hydropower Station is a significant project in Southwest China. The paper adopts the rigidity limited equilibrium theory and evaluated stability of the slope body, which will provide the evidences for further detail design.