Dynamic responses of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to global temperature changes between 1850 and 2010

Changes in Earth's temperature have significant impacts on the global carbon cycle that vary at different time scales, yet to quantify such impacts with a simple scheme is traditionally deemed difficult. Here, we show that, by incorporating a temperature sensitivity parameter(1.64 ppm yr~(-1) ?C~(-1)) into a simple linear carbon-cycle model, we can accurately characterize the dynamic responses of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2) concentration to anthropogenic carbon emissions and global temperature changes between 1850 and 2010(r~2 0.96 and the root-mean-square error 1 ppm for the period from 1960onward). Analytical analysis also indicates that the multiplication of the parameter with the response time of the atmospheric carbon reservoir(～12 year) approximates the long-term temperature sensitivity of global atmospheric CO_2concentration(～15 ppm?C~(-1)), generally consistent with previous estimates based on reconstructed CO_2 and climate records over the Little Ice Age. Our results suggest that recent increases in global surface temperatures, which accelerate the release of carbon from the surface reservoirs into the atmosphere, have partially offset surface carbon uptakes enhanced by the elevated atmospheric CO_2 concentration and slowed the net rate of atmospheric CO_2 sequestration by global land and oceans by ～30%since the 1960 s. The linear modeling framework outlined in this paper thus provides a useful tool to diagnose the observed atmospheric CO_2 dynamics and monitor their future changes.     

Incorporation of a dynamic root distribution into CLM4.5: Evaluation of carbon and water fluxes over the Amazon

Roots are responsible for the uptake of water and nutrients by plants and have the plasticity to dynamically respond to different environmental conditions. However, most land surface models currently prescribe rooting profiles as a function only of vegetation type, with no consideration of the surroundings. In this study, a dynamic rooting scheme, which describes root growth as a compromise between water and nitrogen availability, was incorporated into CLM4.5 with carbon–nitrogen(CN) interactions(CLM4.5-CN) to investigate the effects of a dynamic root distribution on eco-hydrological modeling. Two paired numerical simulations were conducted for the Tapajos National Forest km83(BRSa3) site and the Amazon, one using CLM4.5-CN without the dynamic rooting scheme and the other including the proposed scheme. Simulations for the BRSa3 site showed that inclusion of the dynamic rooting scheme increased the amplitudes and peak values of diurnal gross primary production(GPP) and latent heat flux(LE) for the dry season, and improved the carbon(C) and water cycle modeling by reducing the RMSE of GPP by 0.4 g C m~(-2)d~(-1), net ecosystem exchange by 1.96 g C m~(-2)d~(-1), LE by 5.0 W m~(-2), and soil moisture by 0.03 m~3m~(-3), at the seasonal scale, compared with eddy flux measurements, while having little impact during the wet season. For the Amazon, regional analysis also revealed that vegetation responses(including GPP and LE) to seasonal drought and the severe drought of 2005 were better captured with the dynamic rooting scheme incorporated.     

Down to Earth: Contextualizing the Anthropocene

The ‘Anthropocene’ is now being used as a conceptual frame by different communities and in a variety of contexts to understand the evolving human–environment relationship. However, as we argue in this paper, the notion of an Anthropos, or ‘humanity’, as global, unified ‘geological force’ threatens to mask the diversity and differences in the actual conditions and impacts of humankind, and does not do justice to the diversity of local and regional contexts. For this reason, we interpret in this article the notion of an Anthropocene in a more context-dependent, localized and social understanding. We do this through illustrating examples from four issue domains, selected for their variation in terms of spatial and temporal scale, systems of governance and functional interdependencies: nitrogen cycle distortion (in particular as it relates to food security); ocean acidification; urbanization; and wildfires. Based on this analysis, we systematically address the consequences of the lens of the Anthropocene for the governance of social-ecological systems, focusing on the multi-level, functional and sectoral organization of governance, and possible redefinitions of governance systems and policy domains. We conclude that the notion of the Anthropocene, once seen in light of social inequalities and regional differences, allows for novel analysis of issue-based problems in the context of a global understanding, in both academic and political terms. This makes it a useful concept to help leverage and (re-)focus our efforts in a more innovative and effective way to transition towards sustainability.     

东北地区春季首场透雨的变化特征及与青藏高原地面加热场强度的关系

利用1958—2012年4—5月东北地区(39°~55°N、118°~135°E)101个站点逐日降水资料、青藏高原地区(25°~40°N、73.75°~103.75°E)JRA-55的地面感热和潜热通量月平均再分析资料以及NCEP/NCAR-I大气环流场的月平均再分析资料,分析了春播期首场透雨出现日期的时空变化特征及其与透雨量和播种期降水量间的关系,以及对青藏高原地面加热场强度异常的响应及其可能机制。结果表明:透雨日期自1958年以来在东北地区的西北和东南大部分区域呈现略微偏晚的趋势;中部有略微偏早的趋势。春播期首场透雨出现时间偏早(晚)的地方,首场透雨量小(大),春播期总降水量多(少)。同时,4月青藏高原地面加热场强度增强(减弱),有利于(不利于)来自北方的冷空气和南方的暖湿气流在东北上空交汇,且上升气流增强(减弱),水汽输送充沛(减少),导致该地区春季首场透雨出现的时间偏早(晚)。     

内蒙古河套灌区春玉米作物系数试验研究

作物系数曲线是估算作物生长季耗水量变化的重要参数。基于2013年4—9月内蒙古巴彦淖尔市临河区田间水分试验和1994—2013年气象站观测资料,利用水量平衡法反求春玉米作物系数,分析生长季内的变化规律, 建立动态模拟方程,并与联合国粮农组织 (FAO) 分段直线法结果进行比较, 提出胁迫条件下作物系数的叶面积修正方法。结果表明:玉米作物系数随发育进程可用三项式曲线描述,变化趋势与产量水平无关, 但随产量增高而变幅增大;以出苗后相对积温为时间变量建立模拟方程效果较好,决定系数 (R2) 均在0.92以上;模拟计算出各站点最大 (1.30~1.48) 和平均 (0.831~0.919) 作物系数,与FAO分段直线法计算的典型值和区间值基本一致,生长中期平均相对误差为3.4%~7.2%;提出利用相对叶面积指数修正作物系数的计算方法;通过2014年实例检验,土壤水分模拟值与实测值的平均相对误差为6.3%,相对误差小于15%的占95.8%。     

基于载波相位的GPS周跳恢复方法研究

在GPS定位中,周跳的探测和修复是获得高精度定位结果的前提。针对载波相位周跳数据的探测和修复这一问题已经提出了很多方法,但都有各自的不足之处。文中针对恶劣环境下的载波相位定位问题,通过使用多个历元的数据构建方程,提出一种新的整周模糊度定义方法,并预期能够在仅有3颗可用卫星且周跳发生时实现快速、准确的定位。     

基于抗差估计的实时单站GPS同震速度获取方法

基于实时单站GPS载波相位历元差分测速模型,引入抗差最小二乘估计,并根据IGGⅢ方案选择合适的等价权因子来削弱小周跳和粗差对结果的影响,并采用一组静态数据和2011年日本"3.11"地震期间MIZU站的高频数据对算法进行测试。结果表明,在含有小周跳和粗差的情况下,抗差最小二乘估计能够明显改善解算速度,可以实时获取测站毫米级的同震速度。     

一种改进的基于 BDS 三频非差观测的周跳实时探测与修复模型

BDS三频观测条件下可以组合得到具有优良特性的虚拟载波观测量,有利于改善非差观测数据的周跳实时探测与修复。文中提出一种基于BDS三频非差数据的周跳实时探测与修复模型:首先,采用消电离层无几何HMW组合观测量探测和修复EWL周跳;然后,将经过修复的EWL观测量与WL组合消除几何相关项,忽略电离层延迟残差进而确定WL周跳;最后采用经过修复的WL观测量与NL组合形成无几何观测量,并通过优化载波相位组合确定电离层延迟的变化量以探测和计算NL周跳,并通过简单变换得到原始载波观测量的周跳值。通过实测BDS三频数据对模型可行性进行验证分析,结果表明,即使在30s的采样率以及电离层活动活跃条件下,该模型都可有效实时探测和修复各类周跳。     

遥感与地球系统科学

地球作为一个高度复杂的非线性系统,各圈层(大气、海洋、陆地、生物、冰雪圈、固体地球)尤其是人类活动等任何组成成份的变化,都会引起地球系统的变化。人类可持续发展面临的巨大科学挑战之一是认识人类赖以生存的、复杂变化的地球系统,认识地球系统如何变化及主要驱动因素,认识地球系统未来变化趋势及如何提高对全球变化的适应能力。卫星独特的全球覆盖和日尺度的观测改变了地球科学的研究方法,它强调所能探测到的多时空尺度上的物理动力过程,在全球范围应对气候变化、能源和环境挑战具有重要作用,揭开了地球系统多学科交叉的新纪元。以地球系统的视野,抓住驱动地球系统的关键循环过程(如能量、水、生物化学循环),是当前地球系统科学的发展趋势。地球系统科学(全球变化)研究需要长期稳定、准确性较高的卫星观测数据,以水循环为例,卫星遥感具备获取全球范围水循环关键参数能力,但是系统性综合观测能力不足,整体精确性受到综合化的可靠空间数据集的限制。目前中国正在积极研制发展新型水循环卫星WCOM(Water Cycle Observation Misssion),并寄希望以此为核心传感器发起全球分布式水循环观测星座系统,进一步提高中国在国际水循环观测与地球系统科学研究方面的话语权与领先能力。     

北斗系统姿态测量中周跳探测与修复方法

针对姿态测量基于短基线精密相对定位,而观测值的周跳直接影响基线解算精度,将导致姿态解算结果数据质量下降的问题,提出了姿态测量应用中的周跳组合探测修复方法。文章在分析姿态解算原理及误差影响程度的基础上,结合经典电离层残差法和多项式拟合法,探讨其在北斗卫星导航系统中周跳探测修复的方法原理、缺陷及对北斗数据探测修复效果,结合实际情况提出了姿态测量应用中的组合探测修复方法。采集真实数据实时解算,定量计算了修复后的基线解算精度和姿态测量效果,验证了所提出的方法可用于实际测量解算,处理后的姿态测量精度满足使用需求,研究结果对北斗姿态解算有参考价值。