Evaluation of Agricultural Climatic Resource Utilization During Spring Maize Cultivation in Northeast China Under Climate Change

Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production.This study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during 1951-2100.Model outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and 2000.Agricultural climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring maize.Three indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and 2100.These indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global warming.All three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,respectively.In Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after 2030.The spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift northeastward.Overall,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning Province.Spring maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.     

东北地区玉米整地、播种和收获气象适宜度评价模型

天气、土壤条件影响玉米整地、播种和收获作业的质量及作业效率,进而影响到苗情、产量和生产成本,东北地区相关的农业气象要素是土壤湿度、土壤解冻深度、温度、日雨量和风力等.根据气象、土壤条件对玉米整地、播种和收获的影响,用模糊隶属函数建立了这些农事活动气象适宜度评价函数及其农业气象指标,用权重法分别建立了整地、播种和收获综合气象适宜度评价模型.检验结果表明,这些模式和指标符合实际,可以用于相关农事活动的气象适宜度评价业务.在气温和降水等气象要素预报的基础上,该模型还可以用于相关农事气象适宜度和适宜期的预报.     

我国北方春季沙尘暴的异常及其对冬季青藏高原地面感热的响应

选用中国178个常规气象观测站建站～2000年历年春季沙尘暴日数资料,分析了近50a来中国北方春季沙尘暴的气候特征。在此基础上进一步揭示了我国北方沙尘暴的形成、发展以及造成的危害。结果表明：我国北方春季沙尘暴存在东西反位相差异,近50a来,春季沙尘暴日数总体趋势在减少,但20世纪末又有明显的回升趋势。这不仅与影响我国北方的冷空气路径有关,还与青藏高原冬季地面感热的异常密切相关。     

夏季西北太平洋和南中国海台风生成与前期冬春主要环境条件的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料、OLR资料和中国气象局编辑的<台风年鉴>及<热带气旋年鉴>资料,对西北太平洋和南中国海夏季中心附近的平均风力达8级(17 m/s)或以上的热带气旋(含热带风暴、强热带风暴和台风,以下统称台风)牛成频数与气候背景的关系进行了研究分析.对台风牛成多寡的气候背景差异和特征进行比较表明,前期冬春季海温和赤道辆合带的异常与夏季台风生成有密切的关系.前期冬春季在类似于La Nina型海温距平分布背景下,从冬至夏在赤道中太平洋160°E附近的ITCZ有一个向西北方向加强北抬的过程,太平洋ITCZ的活动偏北偏强,赤道太平洋有异常活跃的ITCZ向西太平洋台风主要源地推进,有利于后期夏季台风的生成;相反,前期冬春季在类似于E1 Nino型海温距平分布背景下,赤道西太平洋ITCZ偏弱偏南,不利于后期夏季的台风生成.在夏季多台风年,前期冬季西太平洋暖海温异常为后期台风的发展提供了重要的有利背景,在暖海温的持续作用下,对流层的风场辐合异常增强,增加了暖海温区的水汽供应.到了前期春季,热带辐合带的扰动扮演了更为重要的角色.随着赤道辐合带的北移,附加的异常辐合位于暖海温区时,会激发出低空大尺度水汽辐合与自由大气中潜热释放之间的正反馈,有利于后期台风的生成.当前期冬季至春季西北太平洋海温持续异常偏冷时,对流层的风场为辐散异常,减少了冷海温区的水汽供应,导致赤道辐合带不活跃,缺乏必要扰动,夏季台风生成偏少.     

四川的地热水资源

四川的地热水资源丰富，大多数热水出露于构造断裂带和洒谷地区，主要储集在三叠纪地层中的碳酸盐岩里。根据温（热）泉的分布状况、热水的类型和物理化学特征，对地热田进行了预测分区。     

Abiotic versus biotic controls on the development of the Fairmont Hot Springs carbonate deposit, British Columbia, Canada

The relict Fairmont Hot Springs deposit, formed largely of carbonates, covers an area of 0·5 km², and is up to 16 m thick. The triangle‐shaped discharge apron, which broadens down‐valley, is divided into a proximal part with beds dipping at <10° and a distal part with beds dipping at 10° to 15°. The deposit is formed of the: (1) Basal Macrophyte; (2) Lower Carbonate; (3) Middle Clastic; (4) Upper Carbonate; and (5) Upper Clastic Sequences. Two charcoal samples embedded in the Lower Carbonate Sequence yielded dates of 8690 ± 90 and 8270 ± 70 cal yr bp , indicating that much of the deposit formed post‐glacially during the Early to Mid‐Holocene. Deposit aggradation ceased in the Mid to Late Holocene when the Fairmont Creek valley was incised. The Lower and Upper Carbonate Sequences, which are the thickest sequences, are composed of nearly equal parts of travertine (abiotic) and tufa (biotic), with feather dendrite travertine, radiating dendrite travertine and stromatolite tufa dominating. Competition between calcite precipitation rates and biotic growth rates controlled the distribution of tufa and travertine across the discharge apron. Calcite and biotic growth rates were controlled largely by flow velocity across the apron which, in turn, was controlled by topography and regular fluctuations in spring water discharge volume. During times of high spring discharge, slow sheet flow over the proximal part of the apron promoted stromatolite growth, whereas fast, turbulent flow on the distal part of the apron induced rapid feather dendrite formation. During times of low spring discharge, quiescent, shallow evaporative pools, conducive to radiating dendrite formation, formed on the proximal part of the apron, whereas slow flow on the distal part promoted stromatolite growth. Facies with high calcite supersaturation experienced rapid abiotic dendrite growth that precluded most biotic growth.     

Improved understanding of dynamic water and mass budgets of high-alpine karst systems obtained from studying a well-defined catchment area

Large areas of Europe, especially in the Alps, are covered by carbonate rocks and in many alpine regions, karst springs are important sources for drinking water supply. Because of their high variability and heterogeneity, the understanding of the hydrogeological functioning of karst aquifers is of particular importance for their protection and utilisation. Climate change and heavy rainfall events are major challenges in managing alpine karst aquifers which possess an enormous potential for future drinking water supply. In this study, we present research from a high-alpine karst system in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Großes Walsertal in Austria, which has a clearly defined catchment and is drained by only one spring system. Results show that (a) the investigated system is a highly dynamic karst aquifer with distinct reactions to rainfall events in discharge and electrical conductivity; (b) the estimated transient atmospheric CO₂ sink is about 270 t/a; (c) the calculated carbonate rock denudation rate is between 23 and 47 mm/1000a and (d) the rainfall-discharge behaviour and the internal flow dynamics can be successfully simulated using the modelling package KarstMod. The modelling results indicate the relevance of matrix storage in determining the discharge behaviour of the spring, particularly during low-flow periods. This research and the consequent results can contribute and initiate a better understanding and management of alpine karst aquifers considering climate change with more heavy rainfall events and also longer dry periods.     

固定铝log(Q/K)图解在温泉中的应用

为探讨常规和固定铝log(Q/K)图解法对温泉系统是否有效 ,采用WATCH程序 ,对江西 3个温度较高的温泉 ,即庐山温泉、汤湖温泉和横泾温泉 ,进行了探测性的研究 .采用常规log(Q/K)图解法计算时 ,由于参加计算的 4个水样的铝含量均未检出 ,计算结果显示只有不含铝的矿物玉髓和方解石相交于温度 1 0 0℃附近 ,热储总体上没有达到平衡 .在采用了固定铝log(Q/K)图解法并同时考虑冷水的稀释作用计算后 ,中低温地热系统中常见的蚀变矿物如浊沸石、纤蛇纹石、萤石和玉髓均显示了较好的收敛性 ,收敛的温度大致在 1 0 0～ 1 4 0℃ .并且上述矿物组合可见于某些温泉的深部钻孔中 ,计算结果与实际地质情况相吻合 .结果表明固定铝log(Q/K)图解法可以恢复温泉系统的热平衡状态     

河西走廊春末夏初降水的空间异常分布及年代际变化

利用河西走廊19个气象代表站建站至2002年5～6月降水量资料, 分析了河西走廊春末夏初干旱的基本气候特征; 在利用EOF和REOF方法进行降水空间异常变化分析和气候分区的基础上,讨论了第一时间系数(PC1)及各区代表站降水量的年代际变化规律. 结果表明, 河西走廊春末夏初降水量在第一空间尺度上为全区一致; 在第二空间尺度上可分为3个气候区; 在第三空间尺度上可分为5个自然气候区. 1980年代为近50 a来降水最多的10 a, 1990年代有所减少, 20世纪末至21世纪初有明显增加. 前期冬季欧亚径向环流加强, 亚洲区极涡面积扩大、强度加强, 冷空气活动频繁, 将有利于次年春末夏初河西走廊降水偏多. 欧洲青藏高原华北西太平洋的波列, 特别是东亚大槽的填塞和青藏高原低值系统频繁活动, 造成了500 hPa高空场上"东高西低"的典型多雨流型.     

济南平阴氡温泉水化学成分与同位素特征研究

在系统的分析济南平阴氡温泉水化学成分和同位素特征的基础上,结合当地地形和水文条件,研究了氡温泉水的起源和形成年龄,结果显示:济南平阴氡温泉水温为28.3℃,pH值为中性,水化学类型为Cl·SO4-Na·Ca型,富含氡、锶、氟、锂、溴、偏硅酸、偏硼酸等微量元素,且含量均符合理(医)疗热矿泉水水质标准,其中氡含量特别高是该温泉的一个显著特点。氡温泉水的同位素测定资料显示,平阴氡温泉热水起源于大气降水,用氚及14C法估算出的氡温泉水的表观年龄在15.81±2.17 ka。