Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.     

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones: A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone (TC) vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds. It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall, which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution. In contrast, the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall. These led to stronger boundary layer inflow, stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall, and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall. These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall, followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC. Our study demonstrates that accurate in- itialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC. Additionally, monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.     

汶川8级强震极震区破坏情况与烈度

展现了汶川8级强震现场考察的极震区破坏情况,以及依据《中国地震烈度表》判断所达到的地震烈度,简要讨论了发震断层的类型和地震破坏特点     

Building damage in Dujiangyan during Wenchuan Earthquake

A field damage survey of 1,005 buildings damaged by the Wenchuan Earthquake in Dujiangyan City was carried out and the resulting data was analyzed using the statistical method. It is shown that buildings that were seismically designed achieved the desired seismic fortification target; they sustained less damage than the non-seismically designed buildings. Among the seismically designed buildings investigated, RC frame buildings performed the best in terms of seismic resistance. Masonry buildings with a ground story of RC frame structure were the second best, and masonry buildings performed the worst. Considering building height, multistory buildings sustained more severe damage than high-rise buildings and 2- and 3-story buildings. Compared to residential buildings, public buildings, such as schools and hospitals, suffered more severe damage.     

黑龙江省闪电活动特征及其与地面相对湿度的响应关系

利用2006-2017年黑龙江省闪电定位资料和日平均地面相对湿度资料,采用数理统计、Pearson相关分析、GIS空间分析技术,研究了闪电密度和强度对地面相对湿度（R_H）的响应关系。结果表明：地面R_H过小或过大都不利于闪电活动产生;当R_H < 25%时,几乎无闪电发生,当R_H < 77%时,R_H增加有利于闪电活动发生,当R_H>79%时,随着R_H增加,闪电活动减少;当R_H < 77%时,闪电密度与之呈正相关,闪电强度与之呈负相关;当R_H>79%时,闪电密度与之呈负相关,闪电强度与之呈正相关;地面R_H的临界值域约为77%-79%;70%≤ R_H ≤ 90%区间为闪电易发湿度区间,在闪电密度与湿度相关度高的区域,闪电更趋于集中发生在闪电易发湿度区间。     

臭氧、保鲜剂及温度对哈密瓜呼吸强度及贮藏效果的影响

本文研究了不同温度、不同浓度臭氧溶液和保鲜剂溶液处理对哈密瓜呼吸强度及贮藏效果的影响。实验结果表明。低温有利降低了哈密瓜的呼吸强度，其中4℃是较佳的贮藏温度，2℃贮温会使哈密瓜发生冷害。500mg／L、750mg／L、1000mg／L浓度的伊麦唑与伊源果蜡复合使用能够降低哈密瓜的呼吸强度，但三个处理组之间对瓜呼吸强度影响的差异不明显。     

冬、夏季青藏高原地面加热场激发的500hPa遥相关型

本文用青藏高原地面加热场强度来表征高原的加热状况，并用统计的方法，分析了冬季（２月）和夏季（７月）青藏高原地面加热场强度与同期５００ｈＰａ位势高度的遥相关关系，得到如下结论：冬季高原地面加热场可激发北半球５００ｈＰａ产生遥相关型，这种遥相关型可看成是二维Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波列由低纬向东北方向传播；夏季高原地面加热场可激发北半球５００ｈＰａ产生类似于ＥＵ型的遥相关，这种遥相关型可看成二维Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波列由     

Fracture mechanics analysis of multiple cracks in anisotropic media

This paper presents a single‐domain boundary element method (BEM) for linear elastic fracture mechanics analysis in the two‐dimensional anisotropic material. In this formulation, the displacement integral equation is collocated on the un‐cracked boundary only, and the traction integral equation is collocated on one side of the crack surface only. A special crack‐tip element was introduced to capture exactly the crack‐tip behavior. A computer program with the FORTRAN language has been developed to effectively calculate the stress intensity factors of an anisotropic material. This BEM program has been verified having a good accuracy with the previous researches. Furthermore, by analyzing the different anisotropic degree cracks in a finite plate, we found that the stress intensity factors of crack tips had apparent influence by the geometry forms of cracks and media with different anisotropic degrees. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

1980年以来中国农地利用变化的区域差异

依托1980~2002年的中国农产品成本收益资料与中国农业统计年鉴等基础数据,从集约度、播种面积与耕地撂荒变化三个方面,对中国1980年以来农地利用变化的区域差异进行了研究。结果表明：① 西部地区农地利用的集约度具有强劲的上升态势,而东、中部地区在1992~1993年时集约度下降显著,在1997年以后,集约度具有明显的持续下降趋势;② 东部地区农地利用的总播种面积显著下降,而西部地区却有相当稳定的扩大趋势;③ 东部、中部与西部地区三种粮食作物的播种面积变化均经历了一个“三缩二扩”的变化过程：“缩小 (1980~1985)-扩大 (1985~1991)-缩小 (1991~1994)-扩大 (1994~1999)-再缩小 (1999~ 2002)”;但在变化幅度与发展态势上,三个区域之间差异明显。东部地区的播种面积有显著的下降态势,而中部与西部地区在1999年以前,其总的态势是播种面积有所扩大,此后播种面积明显下降,但其下降幅度小于东部地区;④ 中部地区耕地撂荒案例最多,涉及地域最广,东部地区次之,西部地区相对较少;东部地区的耕地撂荒现象主要出现在1992~1995年,而中部地区高度集中在1998~2002年,西部地区耕地撂荒的时间分布较为均匀,没有高度集中出现的特点。