A comparison of state space and multiple regression for monthly forecasts: U.S. Fuel consumption

Monthly consumption forecasts for U.S. oil, natural gas, and coal are made using state space and multiple regression applied to the same data. These forecasts are compared with actual consumption for a test period. The forecasts made using state space are preferred to those made using multiple regression models for both expost and exante cases. The state space forecasts track data cycles better than do the regression forecasts. Average absolute forecast errors are less for the state space models than they are for the multiple regression models.     

利用一维时间序列重建动力系统的初步研究

通过对月平均气温一维时间序列作相空间拓展,和假定相空间状态变量随时间的演化方程含有线性和非线性二次项,再根据拓展后的资料进行拟合,利用最小二乘法求出各项系数,保留其方差贡献大的项,以重建动力系统.实际计算结果表明,重建的低阶动力系统有可能对月平均气温所表征的短期气候演化过程的非线性特性作出描写.     

REPRESENTATION OF SPECTRA BY CONTINUOUS FUNCTIONS

A general framework for manipulating spectra as functions in traditional multivariate methods such asPCA and PLS is described.The functional representation is very convenient for compression,ensuringsmoothness and continuity.There are two fundamentally different types of representations:(a)byfunctions and(b)by function coefficients.The use of coefficients is the most practical way of analysis.     

The Location of Office Space in the Metropolitan Service Economy of the United States, 1985–1990

As the economic base of most American metropolitan areas relies increasingly on services, office industries have shifted to a more pivotal role in the new metropolitan service economy. Using primary office-space usage data of the time period 1985–1990, the changing spatial patterns of this new metropolitan service economy are investigated. It is found that the primary office activities are predominantly concentrated in a relatively small number of the largest metropolitan areas. However, an emerging spatial dispersion in primary office activities is also exhibited. Such dispersion is extremely strong at the upper end of the urban hierarchy. The Sunbelt-Snowbelt dichotomy fails to reveal any differences in the growth pattern of the new metropolitan service economy. A more diversified growth pattern of primary office activities is observed. Concentrated dispersion is the major spatial characteristic of this new metropolitan service economy.     

垂直地震力作用下弹性半空间上扁壳基础的解析解

用布希涅斯克定义的弹性半空间内的垂直位移包括两项积分,除了积分号前面系数的差别之外,第一项积分是单层位势而第二项积分为双层位势。若扁壳基础是正高斯曲率的几何曲面,则壳底与半空间表面间的挤压强度就是半空间表面作用的分布垂直荷载。当越过边界时,双层势位的函数值和单层势位的法向导数值发生跳跃。利用这些性质,本文得出布希涅斯克积分的反演公式,从而避开要求解偏微分—积分方程组的巨大数学困难而易于得出解析解。以椭园抛物面扁壳为例说明本文方法的应用。     

Multivariable variogram and its application to the linear model of coregionalization

In this article, we present the multivariable variogram, which is defined in a way similar to that of the traditional variogram, by the expected value of a distance, squared, in a space withp dimensions. Combined with the linear model of coregionalization, this tool provides a way for finding the elementary variograms that characterize the different spatial scales contained in a set of data withp variables. In the case in which the number of elementary components is less than or equal to the number of variables, it is possible, by means of nonlinear regression of variograms and cross-variograms, to estimate the coregionalization parameters directly in order to obtain the elementary variables themselves, either by cokriging or by direct matrix inversion. This new tool greatly simplifies the procedure proposed by Matheron (1982) and Wackernagel (1985). The search for the elementary variograms is carried out using only one variogram (multivariable), as opposed to thep(p + 1)/2 required by the Matheron approach. Direct estimation of the linear coregionalization model parameters involves the creation of semipositive definite coregionalization matrices of rank 1.     

New Investigation on the Space Group of Chevkinite

Chevkinite specimen from a rare-earth mineral deposit in Sichuan,southwest ofChina have been studied in detail by means of transmission electron microscope(TEM).The selected area electron diffraction(SAED)and convergent beam electron diffraction(CBED)patterns,obtained from different crystal zone axis direction,proved coineidently that the space group of chevkinite is C2/m.Fringe lattice image obser-vation showed the mineral crystal is structurally uniform in microscale,and it is anideal specimen for electron diffraction analysis.The mineral studied here is similar to theone from Bayan Obo,Inner Mongolia,China,in chemical composition and REE distri-bution.The chemical formula of the crystal is(Ce,La,…,Ca)_4 Fe~2-(Fe,Ti,Nb)_2O_8 (Si_2O_7)_2 .From our study,we come to the conclusion that the space group of the natu-ral chevkinite is C2/m,instead of P2_1/a as synthetic one.Up to now,chevkinitecompositionally similar to the synthetic one,in which the complete replacements of Ce,La by Nd and Fe by Mg or Co o     

利用微机进行航片转绘

本文所述方法的基本思路是：根据空间后方交会原理建立单张航片的投影变换模型，利用扫描仪输入航片调绘数据和地形高程数据，利用投影变换模型对航片数据进行变换处理，从而实现对航片的转绘。该方法适用于高山、丘陵、平地的航片转绘。     

空间后交的一种新算法

根据矩阵理论，推导了空间后交的一种新算法．这种方法简单易行，无需线性化，其计算结果、精度与传统方法一致．     

论自动化和智能化空间对地观测数据处理系统的建立

未来１０年遥感对地观测技术的发展使得遥感影像的获取将走向多种传感器、多分辨率、多谱段和多时相。各国计划发射的对地观测卫星将使我们能够同时获取大量的、不同分辨率的、多谱段的可见光、红外、微波辐射和侧视雷达的数据。从而构成用于全球变化研究、环境监测、资源调查、灾害防治的多层次遥感影像金字塔。为了能够及时地、充分地利用这些对地观测数据来回答地学研究和人类社会发展所面临时的问题，更好地发挥遥感为国民经济建设服务的巨大潜力，必须从技术上建立一个自动化和智能化的空间对地观测数据处理系统。鉴于目前应用滞后于发射，软件落后于硬件的现实情况，本文简要叙述建立自动化和智能化空间对地观测数据处理系统的必要性和可能性，分析建立该系统的主要目标和需解决的关键技术并希望国家集中各有关方面的人力和财力来共同攻关，以建立和完善我国的地球科学信息系统，提高综合研究与深入分析的现代化水平。