集合预报及其在中期天气预报中的应用

作者概述了集合预报的基本概念，集合预报中期天气预报中的意义与作用，现有的主要集合预报产品以及集合预报在美国美国国家气象中心和欧洲中期天气预报的业务运行。简要介绍了我国国家气象中心在动力延伸预报和集合预报方面的试验研究情况。     

东北地区一次短时大暴雨β中尺度对流系统分析

利用常规气象探测、FY气象卫星、多普勒天气雷达、地面自动站资料以及NECP、EC高时空分辨率再分析资料,对比分析了2014年8月30日(简称“8.30”)和9月8日(简称“9.08”)南疆西部两次短时强降水天气中尺度特征。结果表明：“8.30”过程发生在高压脊前西北气流内,“9.08”过程出现在低涡底部平直西风带内,两次过程中地面和低空中尺度辐合线均是短时强降水的重要影响系统;造成短时强降水的β中尺度对流云团发展迅速、移动快,两次短时强降水分别产生在对流云团TBB梯度最大处和发展过程中范围最大时。两次过程在雷达回波特征方面存在明显差异,对流风暴质心高度明显不同,“8.30”过程影响系统为高质心γ中尺度超级单体,最强回波高度6 km,具有中低层辐合、高层辐散、旋转特征;“9.08”过程影响系统为低质心γ中尺度普通单体风暴,最强回波高度2 km,雷达径向速度上两次过程边界层辐合线对对流风暴的产生和加强有重要作用。

     

一次强对流天气过程中尺度对流系统特征分析

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料、FY2C云图及广州新一代多普勒天气雷达产品,对2007年6月9～10日发生在广东省的一次强对流天气过程中的中尺度对流系统（MCS）进行了分析,主要结论有：1）对流层中高层辐散低层辐合,以及“上千下湿”相配置的垂直环流结构特征,和不稳定的大气层结为此次暴雨的形成提供了所需的动力条件和水汽条件;2）MCS云系生成、发展于南支槽和西南低涡东南侧的暖湿气流所形成的云系中;3）在雷达回波图上,MβCS回波的发展具有明显的右移风暴移动特点和“列车效应”,且发展成熟阶段的回波呈显著的“弓形”和“人字形”水平回波演变结构。     

An East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon Index Defined by Moist Potential Vorticity

Based on consideration of both thermodynamic and kinetic features of the subtropical summer monsoon in East Asia,a new index is defined by the moist potential vorticity (MPV) for this monsoon.Variation features of the subtropical summer monsoon over 60 years are analyzed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) data from 1948 to 2007.Results show that the new index can well reflect the seasonal,interannual,and interdecadal variations of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon.Correlation analysis of the new index and precipitation data from 160 stations in China shows that in high-index years,the summer monsoon is strong,and more rain falls in eastern North China,southwestern China,and along the coast of South China and less rain falls in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.In low-index years,the opposite occurs.Lastly,the new index is compared with four established monsoon indices.The new index is found to have an advantage in representing summer rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.     

Last interglacial sea levels on the south coast of New South Wales

Remnants of the Last Interglacial shoreline occur at Middle Lagoon on the far south coast of New South Wales. Relict beach sediments can be traced to a height of at least +4.8 m and are indicative of a former mean sea level of about +3 m. Thermoluminescence (TL) ages of 126 ± 13 ka and 114 ± 15 ka were determined for beach and aeolian facies respectively. Sands in the lower part of an exposure on the adjacent Gillards Beach gave TL ages of 108 ± 13 ka, but sands in the upper part of that exposure gave an age of 19.9 ± 3.5 ka. This chronological evidence of a stratigraphic unconformity in what was initially taken as pedogenic differentiation at Gillards Beach is supported by contrasting electron traps and colour centres in crystal lattices of quartz grains in these two samples. No tectonic displacement is apparent. This site provides the first evidence of the Last Interglacial sea level for 1000 km along the coast between Gippsland and Newcastle.     

曲周地区早、中全新世古年径流深状况的推估

利用中国北方 30个小汇水流域的现代资料数据建立了年平均温度和年降水-年平均径流深关系式 ;利用先前测得的河北平原南部曲周地区的河间洼地沉积物的磁化率和碳酸盐氧同位素组分以及其他研究者建立的磁化率与气候变量之间的关系式和氧同位素组分与气候变量之间的关系式 ,推估了曲周地区早、中全新世的古年温度状况和古年降水状况 ;以推估的古年温度和古年降水以及建立的年平均温度和年降水-年平均径流深关系式 ,推估了曲周地区早、中全新世的古年径流深状况。     

Watershed-scale vegetation,water quantity,and water quality responses to wildfire in the southern Appalachian mountain region,United States

Wildfires are landscape scale disturbances that can significantly affect hydrologic processes such as runoff generation and sediment and nutrient transport to streams. In Fall 2016, multiple large drought-related wildfires burned forests across the southern Appalachian Mountains. Immediately after the fires, we identified and instrumented eight 28.4–344 ha watersheds (four burned and four unburned) to measure vegetation, soil, water quantity, and water quality responses over the following two years. Within burned watersheds, plots varied in burn severity with up to 100% tree mortality and soil O-horizon loss. Watershed scale high burn severity extent ranged from 5% to 65% of total watershed area. Water quantity and quality responses among burned watersheds were closely related to the high burn severity extent. Total water yield (Q) was up to 39% greater in burned watersheds than unburned reference watersheds. Total suspended solids (TSS) concentration during storm events were up to 168 times greater in samples collected from the most severely burned watershed than from a corresponding unburned reference watershed, suggesting that there was elevated risk of localized erosion and sedimentation of streams. NO₃-N concentration, export, and concentration dependence on streamflow were greater in burned watersheds and increased with increasing high burn severity extent. Mean NO₃-N concentration in the most severely burned watershed increased from 0.087 mg L⁻¹ in the first year to 0.363 mg L⁻¹ (+317%) in the second year. These results suggest that the 2016 wildfires degraded forest condition, increased Q, and had negative effects on water quality particularly during storm events.     

内蒙古南部晚二叠世同生变形构造与陆缘裂陷

内蒙南部林西县至正镶白旗林西—正镶白旗地区晚二叠世地层中,发现类型繁多的同生变形构造。除前人报道的滑卷层理、滑塌褶皱、滑塌砾岩和浊积砂砾岩以外,还有本文首次发现的大量球状体,包括滚动纺锤体、叠加滑卷球核、砾核滚动球、砂质滚动球和泥质滚动球。形态结构、成分组成和地层分布研究表明,这些构造形体均属重力成因和形成在陆棚—斜坡上。不同类型的构造形体可以组成来源演变序列,显示重力作用的加强,如滑卷层理通过"叠加滑卷"变成滑卷叠加球核,再通过"滚动粘结"变成滚动球体。它们形成和保存都受特定环境因素控制,因此各自具有特殊指相意义。大量同生变形构造出现,反映沿华北板块北缘出现陆棚、斜坡和深水海槽环境,证明晚二叠世兴—蒙海槽再次裂开,并形成"林西—九台裂陷带"。     

3D and 4D controls on carbonate depositional systems: sedimentological and sequence stratigraphic analysis of an attached carbonate platform and atoll (Miocene, Níjar Basin, SE Spain)

This study investigates the controls on three-dimensional stratigraphic geometries and facies of shallow-water carbonate depositional sequences. A 15 km² area of well-exposed Mid to Late Miocene carbonates on the margin of the Níjar Basin of SE Spain was mapped in detail. An attached carbonate platform and atoll developed from a steeply sloping basin margin over a basal topographic unconformity and an offshore dacite dome (Late Miocene). The older strata comprise prograding bioclastic (mollusc and coralline algae) dominated sediments and later Messinian Porites reefs form prograding and downstepping geometries (falling stage systems tract). Seven depositional sequences, their systems tracts and facies have been mapped and dated (using Sr isotopes) to define their morphology, stratigraphic geometries, and palaeo-environments. A relative sea-level curve and isochore maps were constructed for the three Messinian depositional sequences that precede the late Messinian evaporative drawdown of the Mediterranean. The main 3D controls on these depositional sequences are interpreted as being: (i) local, tectonically driven relative sea-level changes; (ii) the morphology of the underlying sequence boundary; (iii) the type of carbonate producers [bioclastic coralline algal and mollusc-dominated sequences accumulated in lows and on slopes of < 14° whereas the Porites reef-dominated sequence accumulated on steep slopes (up to 25°) and shallow-water highs]. Further controls were: (iv) the inherited palaeo-valleys and point-sourced clastics; (v) the amount of clastic sediments; and (vi) erosion during the following sequence boundary development. The stratigraphy is compared with that of adjacent Miocene basins in the western Mediterranean to differentiate local (tectonics, clastic supply, erosion history, carbonate-producing communities) versus regional (climatic, tectonic, palaeogeographic, sea-level) controls.     

勉略构造带新元古代洋盆俯冲作用：来自略阳地区纸房沟岩片火山岩锆石U- Pb年龄和Lu- Hf同位素的证据

纸房沟岩片位于勉略构造带略阳地区。通过细致的岩石学和地球化学研究,将纸房沟岩片内的火山岩分为拉斑玄武岩系列（Ⅰ类）和钙碱性火山岩系列（Ⅱ类）。Ⅰ类火山岩稀土配分曲线左倾,富Na贫P,整体具有N- MORB特点,形成于洋脊构造环境。相比Ⅰ类火山岩,Ⅱ类火山岩具有更高的SiO2(49.02％~61.86％)和K2O(0.32％~1.55％)含量,相对亏损Nb、Ta、P和Ti,形成于陆缘弧构造环境。Ⅱ类火山岩锆石Lu- Hf同位素测试结果显示,εHf(t)值主体为负值,介于-8.01~+0.77,表明其主要为古老地壳物质熔融成因。Ⅱ类火山岩LA- ICP- MS锆石U- Pb测年结果为854±3Ma(MSWD=0.12, n=30)、844±4Ma (MSWD=0.03, n=15),表明纸房沟岩片火山岩结晶时代为新元古代早中期。综合前人成果认为,纸房沟岩片火山岩为新元古代勉略洋盆俯冲的产物,俯冲作用一直持续到800Ma左右,该俯冲过程很可能是对全球性Rodinia超大陆聚合事件的响应。