内蒙古地区决策气象服务满意度评价体系设计

文章依据内蒙古地区省级决策气象服务满意度评价工作的现状,提出决策气象服务满意度评价体系的一种设计方法,拟对今后提高决策气象服务用户满意度提供依据。     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

地面人影作业决策指挥系统建设的技术问题探讨

为做好地面人工影响天气决策指挥系统的研究和开发,提出各级人影办的职责和作业流程。在市级人影办指挥地面作业的体制内,省级人影办主要做好潜势预报和作业预警等项工作;市级人影办建立以GIS、雷达图像、作业点位置叠加为基础,作业指标为核心,高炮、火箭射程计算作业参数为关键,利用GPRS通信完成指挥中心到作业点的指令下达任务;县级人影办主要负责作业监测、部分作业点的指挥、作业和灾情信息上报,作业点管理等项工作。该方案可以提高形成作业指令的科学性和指令下达速度,使其进入业务应用。     

影视营销对游客旅游决策影响实证分析——以张家界借力《阿凡达》营销为例

以游客旅游决策过程和影视营销基本原理为基础,结合影视营销影响游客旅游决策机理,构建了影视营销对游客旅游决策影响模型和影响效果测评指标体系。以张家界借力《阿凡达》营销为例,研究发现:影视营销对激发游客旅游需要和动机、收集与评价信息以及确定旅游目的地影响效果一般,对游客旅游体验、游后评价、获取影视与旅游目的地相关信息影响效果比较好;区域、市场生命周期和年龄等因素对影视营销影响游客决策效果差异显著。     

岩石地球化学图解信息分析辅助系统的研究与开发

在岩石地球化学理论的框架下,用该领域专家在实际工作中的思维方法来描述岩石地球化学数据处理与分析的固有流程,以岩石地球化学参数和图解为应用研究对象,利用岩石地球化学与计算机软件技术交叉的研究方法,概括岩石地球化学数据的特征及其处理方法。通过对双变量图解、三变量图解特征的分析,将数据计算分为主量和微量元素相关参数计算、主量和微量元素标准矿物计算、同位素相关计算,设计合理、有效的算法,实现岩石地球化学图解的数据管理、分类、参数选择与计算、表达式识别、绘制、坐标转换、投点等图解成图全过程的自动化。     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

城市地震现场搜救指挥辅助决策系统的设计与开发

提出了一种基于GIS和空间决策技术的城市地震现场搜救指挥辅助决策系统的技术思路和解决方案,在软件的总体设计、功能模块、数据库建设、模块集成等方面进行了研究和开发,并以四川自贡市资料为例对系统功能进行了试验,最后给出了试验结果.应用GIS技术构建城市地震现场搜救指挥辅助决策系统是提高地震现场搜救工作效率的有效途径.     

利用砂体叠加部署聪明井提高勘探开发效果

通过相应属性的叠加可提高油气勘探开发的分析效果,减少投资风险。在勘探中采用精细沉积微相分析技术,通过对勘探目标区各小层沉积微相分析,编制各层的砂体分布图,提取各层砂体中主力砂体,编制小层主力砂体的叠加图;通过对叠加图分析,确定优势储层分布区域,进行成藏风险评价,提高了布井效果。而在油田开发调整中,通过对各单层进行精细沉积微相分析,确定其平面分布特征,结合各成因砂体的控制和动用程度,确定成因砂体内的剩余油分布情况,进而确定剩余油富集砂体,并制作剩余油富集砂体叠加图,据此以成因砂体为单元部署高效聪明调整井,提高了油田的采收率和开发效果。     

Environmental decision-making under uncertainty using intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IF-AHP)

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a utility theory based decision-making technique, which works on a premise that the decision-making of complex problems can be handled by structuring them into simple and comprehensible hierarchical structures. However, AHP involves human subjective evaluation, which introduces vagueness that necessitates the use of decision-making under uncertainty. The vagueness is commonly handled through fuzzy sets theory, by assigning degree of membership. But, the environmental decision-making problem becomes more involved if there is an uncertainty in assigning the membership function (or degree of belief) to fuzzy pairwise comparisons, which is referred to as ambiguity (non-specificity). In this paper, the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy set is applied to AHP, called IF-AHP to handle both vagueness and ambiguity related uncertainties in the environmental decision-making process. The proposed IF-AHP methodology is demonstrated with an illustrative example to select best drilling fluid (mud) for drilling operations under multiple environmental criteria.