The effect of glaciation on the intensity of seismic ground motion

Seismicity is known to contribute to landscape denudation through its role in earthquake‐triggered slope failure; but little is known about how the intensity of seismic ground motions, and therefore triggering of slope failures, may change through time. Topography influences the intensity of seismic shaking – generally steep slopes amplify shaking more than flatter slopes – and because glacial erosion typically steepens and enlarges slopes, glaciation may increase the intensity of seismic shaking of some landforms. However, the effect of this may be limited until after glaciers retreat because valley ice or ice‐caps may damp seismic ground motions. Two‐dimensional numerical models (FLAC 6.0) were used to explore how edifice shape, rock stiffness and various levels of ice inundation affect edifice shaking intensity. The modelling confirmed that earthquake shaking is enhanced with steeper topography and at ridge crests but it showed for the first time that total inundation by ice may reduce shaking intensity at hill crests to about 20–50% of that experienced when no ice is present. The effect is diminished to about 80–95% if glacier ice level reduces to half of the mountain slope height. In general, ice cover reduced shaking most for the steepest‐sided edifices, for wave frequencies higher than 3 Hz, and when ice was thickest and the rock had shear stiffness well in excess of the stiffness of ice. If rock stiffness is low and shear‐wave velocity is similar to that of ice, the presence of ice may amplify the shaking of rock protruding above the ice surface. The modelling supports the idea that topographic amplification of earthquake shaking increases as a result of glacial erosion and deglaciation. It is possible that the effect of this is sufficient to have influenced the distribution of post‐glacial slope failures in glaciated seismically active areas. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

页岩气勘探目标层段优选

探讨了页岩气勘探目标层段优选中含气量、埋深及有机碳含量之间的互相补偿关系,并初步提出了相应的参考特征值。Ⅰ型、Ⅱ1型、Ⅱ2和Ⅲ型有机质热进入生气主峰的成熟度门限依次递降,Ro分别为1.2%、0.9%、0.7%和0.5%,相应的深度界限依次减小;对美国页岩气产层实际资料统计分析后认为,要形成工业价值的页岩气,在1 000 m、2 000 m、3 000 m深度页岩含气量至少应达到0.5 m3/t、1.0 m3/t、1.5 m3/t;根据渝东南地区下志留统龙马溪组Ⅰ型有机质页岩研究表明,要达到一定的含气量,有机碳含量与深度应互相补偿。若要含成熟有机质的页岩吸附气含量达到1.0 m3/t,则在500 m、1 000 m、2 000 m深度处TOC值需依次达到1.4%、1.1%和0.9%以上。     

A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes

A Bayesian approach to palaeoecological environmental reconstruction deriving from the unimodal responses generally exhibited by organisms to an environmental gradient is described. The approach uses Bayesian model selection to calculate a collection of probability-weighted, species-specific response curves (SRCs) for each taxon within a training set, with an explicit treatment for zero abundances. These SRCs are used to reconstruct the environmental variable from sub-fossilised assemblages. The approach enables a substantial increase in computational efficiency (several orders of magnitude) over existing Bayesian methodologies. The model is developed from the Surface Water Acidification Programme (SWAP) training set and is demonstrated to exhibit comparable predictive power to existing Weighted Averaging and Maximum Likelihood methodologies, though with improvements in bias; the additional explanatory power of the Bayesian approach lies in an explicit calculation of uncertainty for each individual reconstruction. The model is applied to reconstruct the Holocene acidification history of the Round Loch of Glenhead, including a reconstruction of recent recovery derived from sediment trap data. The Bayesian reconstructions display similar trends to conventional (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares) reconstructions but provide a better reconstruction of extreme pH and are more sensitive to small changes in diatom assemblages. The validity of the posteriors as an apparently meaningful representation of assemblage-specific uncertainty and the high computational efficiency of the approach open up the possibility of highly constrained multiproxy reconstructions.     

淮河中游新石器时代遗址出土石器的演变所反映的人地关系——以双墩和尉迟寺遗址为例

本文以淮河中游新石器早期的双墩遗址和中晚期的尉迟寺遗址的出土石器为主线,辅以其他遗存和遗址地层剖面的环境磁学、元素地球化学证据,探讨了石器工具的演变所反映的人地关系。研究表明:双墩古人最主要的生产活动是砍伐树木和狩猎,而尉迟寺则是谷物生产和狩猎。双墩古人使用投掷和其他多种狩猎方式,在猎物充足的全新世大暖期获取了大量的肉食资源。尉迟寺时期狩猎水平虽有所提高,但剧烈波动的气候和迅速增加的人口,使猎获量下降。双墩时期人们砍伐的树木较为细小,木料之间的结合以捆绑为主。而尉迟寺时期人们砍伐的树木比较粗大,木器和房屋已使用卯榫结构。双墩时期已有了水稻种植,但采集农业占有较大比重。尉迟寺时期的农业以种植为主,采集农业为有益的补充,该时期的出土石器和农业类型与环境演变有明显的相关性。     

北京地区中硬场地地震动效应研究

依据典型工程场地的地震安全性评价报告,研究北京地区中硬场地地震动效应。首先,统计分析了地震安全性评价结果中的场地地震动放大效应。再利用201个工程场地的钻孔资料进行土层地震反应计算,分析不同地震动输入下的场地地震动放大效应。结果表明,北京地区中硬场地地震动放大效应明显,得到的场地地震动峰值加速度转换系数Ka高于《中国地震动参数区划图》（GB18306-2001）中的值,大震水准下更为突出。因此,如在北京地区直接采用《中国地震动参数区划图》（GB18306-2001）中的调整系数,可能会低估北京地区中硬场地的地震动放大效应,降低抗震设防标准。最后指出,场地地震动峰值加速度转换系数明显具有区域性,应根据详细的场地地震动效应研究结果,合理地确定场地地震动转换系数。     

Application of Dempster-Shafer theory in mineral resource potential mapping

The Dempster-Shafer theory has been successfully applied to mineral resource potential mapping in GIS environmental. In this applied form, basic probability assignment and combined basic probability assignment are applied to measuring map pattern and map pattern combination, respectively; and the environment composed of the only two singleton sets (deposit set and non-deposit set), is used for expressing the entire map area. For a subarea in which the certain map pattern combination exists, the combined basic probability assignment corresponding to the map pattern combination existing in this subarea, expresses the belief of inferring the subarea belonging to the deposit set from the evidence that the corresponding map pattern combination existing in the subarea. Thus, it may be served as a statistical index measuring the relative mineral resource potentials of the subarea. And it may be determined like 1) dividing the map area into a series of small equal-sized grid cells and then select the training sample set composed of the well-known grid cells or the entire grid cells; 2) estimating the basic probability assignments corresponding to each map pattern fromthe training sample set; 3) determining the map pattern combination existing in each cell, and then appling the Dempster's Rule of Combination to integrating the all basic probability assignments corresponding to the map patterns existing in the cell into the combined basic probability assignment. Mineral resource potential mapping with the Dempster-Shafer theory is demonstrated on a case study to select mineral resource targets. The experimental results manifest that the model can be compared with the weights of evidence model in the effectiveness of mineral resource target selection.     

Comparison of the atmosphere above the South Pole, Dome C and Dome A: first attempt

The atmospheric properties above three sites (Dome C, Dome A and the South Pole) on the Internal Antarctic Plateau are investigated for astronomical applications using the monthly median of the analyses from ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). Radiosoundings extended on a yearly time-scale at the South Pole and Dome C are used to quantify the reliability of the ECMWF analyses in the free atmosphere as well as in the boundary and surface layers, and to characterize the median wind speed in the first 100 m above the two sites. Thermodynamic instability properties in the free atmosphere above the three sites are quantified with monthly median values of the Richardson number. We find that the probability to trigger thermodynamic instabilities above 100 m is smaller on the Internal Antarctic Plateau than on mid-latitude sites. In spite of the generally more stable atmospheric conditions of the Antarctic sites compared to mid-latitude sites, Dome C shows worse thermodynamic instability conditions than those predicted above the South Pole and Dome A above 100 m. A rank of the Antarctic sites done with respect to the strength of the wind speed in the free atmosphere (ECMWF analyses) as well as the wind shear in the surface layer (radiosoundings) is presented.     

The distribution of pelagic seabirds in relation to the oceanic environment of Gough Island

The distribution and the abundance of flying seabirds are described in relation to the marine environment near Gough Island in the south Atlantic Ocean. Results from a combined seabird, hydrographic and hydro-acoustic survey are assessed in order to highlight possible biotic-abiotic associations. In accordance with recently published work, the macroscale abundance and species composition of avifauna are explained in terms of Gough Island's position between two major biogeographic zones and by the island's utilization as a breeding site for pelagic seabirds. On the mesoscale, seabird abundance was greatest in areas of hydrographical variability, where results from acoustic transects and net hauls suggested concentration of potential food items (i.e. zooplankton and micronekton).     

South Africa's coastal-breeding white-breasted cormorants: population trends,breeding season and movements,and diet

White-breasted cormorants Phalacrocorax [carbo] lucidus breed around South Africa's coast and at inland localities. Along the coasts of the Northern, Western and Eastern Cape provinces, numbers breeding were similar during the periods 1977–1981 (1 116 pairs at 41 localities) and 2008–2012 (1 280 pairs at 41 localities). Along the coast of KwaZulu-Natal (not counted in 1977–1981), 197 pairs bred at nine localities in 2008–2012, when the overall number breeding around South Africa's coastline was about 1 477 pairs. Between the two study periods, numbers decreased in the Northern and Western Cape provinces following the loss of several breeding localities, but they increased in the Eastern Cape. In the Western Cape, however, numbers were stable east of Cape Agulhas and at nine well-monitored West Coast localities that were surveyed from 1978 to 2012. White-breasted cormorants breed throughout the year, with breeding at some localities more seasonal than at others and the timing of peaks in breeding varying at and between localities. In the vicinity of Saldanha Bay/Langebaan Lagoon (Western Cape), in Algoa Bay (Eastern Cape) and in northern KwaZulu-Natal, it is likely that birds moved between breeding localities in different years, although breeding often occurred at the same locality over several years. Human disturbance, presence of predators, competition for breeding space and occurrence of breeding by other waterbirds may influence movements between colonies. Securing sufficient good habitat at which white-breasted cormorants may breed will be important for conservation of the species. The species may breed at an age of 4 years, possibly younger. The bulk of their diet around South Africa's coast consists of inshore marine and estuarine fish species that are not intensively exploited by humans.     

2008年汶川地震重灾区的泥石流

2008年,在"5·12"汶川地震后,随着降雨的发生,地震重灾区的中高山区较普遍地多次发生了泥石流灾害,尤其是对一些地震灾民安置点板房区造成了危害,累计造成人员伤亡(含失踪)达450余人,进一步加重了灾情.按照地震与泥石流暴发的时间顺序分类,区内的泥石流属后发型地震泥石流.其特征主要为:泥石流活动频率增高,暴发点多,规模大小不一,流体件质一般以粘性为主,密度值多在2.0-2.3t/m<'3>之间;泥石流的活动范嗣与降雨关系密切,活动范围还受地形因素控制,主要集中在龙门山等中高山区;泥石流危害形式有冲毁、淤埋、堵塞主河等多种形式.因此,在汶川地震重灾区这样的Ⅸ域选址恢复重建,实质上是在上程地质条件复杂的不稳定区内选择相对稳定的安全岛,町供选择的场地极为有限.故恢复重建居民点时应因地制宜,尤其是岷江等江河峡谷区等地的居民点重建,宜保持当地居民传统的分散、多点居住的特点,而不宜于搞成规模较大的集中成片的居民点.这样既有助于场址的安全,义可以避免大规模泥石流、滑坡、崩塌、山洪等山地火害发生时造成大量的人员伤亡.地震重灾区2008年的泥石流活动显示,龙门山及邻近的邛崃山等山区因汶川地震的影响,泥石流已进入强烈活动时期.其强烈活动时间,可能持续10～30 a,甚至更长.对此,要有足够的重视.在可能遭遇泥石流的区域开展的各种工程建设,一定要加强防范措施,防止泥石流危害.