Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

Seismic evaluation of existing nuclear facility using ambient vibration test to characterize dynamic behavior of the structure and microtremor measurements to characterize the soil: a case study

The methods used for a building seismic hazard evaluation are presented with the associated results. The goals of the study are (1) to check the soil nature and the existence or not of a possible site effect around the installation and (2) to characterize the dynamic behavior of the building using ambient vibration records.

The results of the soil study with the Nakamura method are very difficult to interpret because they are not stable in space and time. The spectral ratios method has been used with regional earthquake records. The results of the application of this method allowed us to conclude that the installation was free of site effect.

The ambient vibration measurements on the building brought the conclusion to determine the first and second modes of the structure. These results have been used to calibrate numerical model. The modal shapes in plan (high roof) and in elevation (main column) have been evaluated. The damping of the building has been computed using ambient vibration records.     

An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability

Introduction There have been nearly 40 years for earthquake prediction since the research on earthquake prediction was carried out in plan by some advanced countries since 1960s. For the hard long process of earthquake prediction, Alen, American famous scientist and former president of the evaluation commission of earthquake prediction in California, USA, said that the difficulty of earthquake prediction is more than the expected and the practical progress of earthquake prediction is more sl…     

金沙江干热河谷土地荒漠化评价方法研究

什么样的退化土地才是荒漠化土地，土地荒漠化的发生发展以及程度和区别等问题的定量确定，至今有关报道甚少。干热河谷是我国西南地区特殊的生态环境类型，自然资源丰富，但土地荒漠化问题十分突出，这一现象的定量认识尤为重要。针对土地景观生态系统的复杂和模糊性，在建立评价指标的基础上，采用模糊综合评判的方法，对土地荒漠化程度进行定量评价，为荒漠化土地的预防和防治提供科学依据和决策支持。     

关于水资源承载力理论与方法的研究

本文首先明确了水资源承载力的基本概念 ,指出可持续发展理论、水 -生态 -社会经济复合系统理论、二元模式下的水文循环机制和过程是水资源承载力研究的理论基础 ,对水资源承载力研究的基本内容、评价指标体系的建立和评价方法进行了较全面的概括和总结。     

吉林省通榆县旅游资源模糊评价研究

该文基于模糊数学的理论和方法 ,从不同角度、不同层次对吉林省通榆县的旅游资源进行综合评价 ,并针对旅游资源特征 ,提出了发展旅游业的基本构思。     

大连市城市内部居住环境评价的空间结构——基于面源模型的分析

以大连市为例 ,首先利用ARC/INFO软件将研究地区划分成 162个元胞作为评价的基本空间单元 ,建立了居住环境评价的面源模型。其次利用MDS方法确定了评价因子、列联表法验证了居民属性与居住环境评价之间的相互独立程度、因子分析方法探讨了居住环境评价结构的平行性。最后应用GIS对居住环境评价空间分异现象进行了分析。     

西藏自治区沙漠化控制重要性评价

根据区域沙漠化敏感性与沙漠化程度及其对人类生命安全、农田和草场损失、基础设施(交通、水利设施等)、环境等所构成威胁程度的轻重,划分不同沙漠化控制重要性等级。本文应用GIS技术,在对西藏自治区土地沙漠化敏感性评价的基础上,根据西藏自治区的实际,将影响目标层分为农牧业人口分布、城镇人口数量、居民点分布、草场分布、交通干线以及特殊区域(如重要的江河源)等,并确定评价指标,从而对沙漠化控制的重要性进行评价。     

西藏自治区土壤侵蚀特点及现状

西藏自治区地域辽阔,土壤侵蚀复杂多样。本文在野外调查的基础上,对西藏自治区土壤侵蚀特点作了全面论述,并对西藏自治区不同类型土壤侵蚀区的土壤侵蚀现状做了较全面的分区评价。同时取雅江中游地区19个县作为典型区域,利用1999年1:20万TM遥感图像土壤侵蚀解译结果,对该典型区域的土壤侵蚀现状作了定量评价。最后根据评价结果,对西藏自治区土壤侵蚀的发展趋势做了预测。     

汾河口傍河水源地激发补给量研究

该文阐述傍河水源地地下水资源构成和补给特性。利用野外试验与室内数值模拟相结合方法，分析汾河口傍河水源地可采水资源量，数值模型刻画黄河实际摆动边界，考虑潜水延迟给水和极端干旱气候条件等多种方案；利用环境同位素技术追踪傍河水源地开采条件下的河水激发补给过程和补给强度。研究表明，在渗透性较好的常年性河流旁建立的水源地，具有抵御极端气象、水文环境以丰补歉的能力，枯水年动用的含水层储存量。丰水年恢复性强。