Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

柴达木盆地东部烃源岩的生源与沉积环境

用色谱-质谱、稳定同位素质谱等分析测试技术，对柴达木盆地东部地区寒武系、奥陶系、泥盆系、石炭系和侏罗系岩样进行地球化学特征分析。从饱和烃生物标志化合物特征、正构烷烃单体碳同位素分布特征等方面入手，对该区的烃源岩的生源与沉积环境作了详细研究。结果表明，柴达木盆地东部地区古生界有机质多为菌、藻类生源，少数有陆源有机质混入（主要是石炭系）。有机质多为强还原环境的海相沉积，少数为海陆过渡相沉积。侏罗系在一些地区和层段并非典型的成煤环境，而是属于滨浅湖相，少数为半深湖-深湖环境，因此具有一定的生烃能力。     

科学家的人文关怀--读80年前德日进第一次来华时的书信

文章通过读德日进1923～1924年第一次来华工作期间的书信，介绍了德日进思想中的几个重要侧面：其宗教思想中的“上帝”及“现世”；学术研究应跨学科综合进行；精神生活的首要地位以及如何看待东西方文化的异同。     

IMPACT OF LATENT HEAT FLUX ON INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON DURING EL NI(N)O/LA NI(N)A YEARS

El Ni(n)o or La Ni(n)a manifest in December over the Pacific and will serve as an index for the forecasting of subsequent Indian summer monsoon,which occurs from June to mid-September.In the present article,an attempt is made to study the variation of latent heat flux (LHF) over the north Indian Ocean during strong El Ni(n)o and strong La Ni(n)a and relate it with Indian monsoon rainfall.During strong El Ni(n)o the LHF intensity is higher and associated with higher wind speed and lower cloud amount.During E1 Ni(n)o all India rainfall is having an inverse relation with LHF.Seasonal rainfall is higher in YY+1 (subsequent year) than YY (year of occurrence).However there is a lag in rainfall during El Ni(n)o YY+1 from June to July when compared with the monthly rainfall.     

Aequorea taiwanensis n. sp. (Hydrozoa, Leptomedusae) and mtCOI sequence analysis for the genus Aequorea

Aequorea taiwanensis, a new hydrozoan species from the Taiwan Strait was described using morphological and molecular characteristics. Both morphological and mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (mtCOI) data supported A. taiwanensis n. sp. as a valid species. Sequence divergence and genetic distance of A. taiwanensis n. sp., A. papillata and A. conica were analysed based on the mtCOI gene sequences. The mtCOI sequences from these three species of the genus Aequorea showed high variation frequency, with sequence divergences ranging from 9.10% to 11.9%, and pairwise genetic distances ranging from 0.097 to 0.130. MtCOI sequence analysis provided diagnostic molecular systematic characteristics for accurate identification and discrimination of the species of Aequorea or their populations, and will be used to resolve evolutionary relationships among them.It was suggested that 10%—20% pairwise mtCOI sequence differences indicated the specieslevel divergence among congeneric species in the Hydromedusae.     

Perturbed solution of sea-air oscillator for the E1 Ni(n)o/La Ni(n)a-Southern Oscillation mechanism

A class of coupled system of the E1 Ni(n)o/La Ni(n)a-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic behavior of solution for corresponding problem is considered.     

In Situ Determination of Au and Cu in Natural Pyrite by Near‐Infrared Femtosecond Laser Ablation‐Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry: No Evidence for Matrix Effects

Gold and copper concentrations were determined in natural pyrite by near‐infrared femtosecond LA‐ICP‐QMS, using both sulfide reference materials (pyrrhotite Po‐726 and in‐house natural chalcopyrite Cpy‐RM) and NIST SRM 610 as external calibrators. Firstly, using NIST SRM 610 as the external calibrator, we calculated the Au concentration in Po‐726 and the Cu concentration in Cpy‐RM. The calculated concentration averages for Au and Cu were similar to the values published for Po‐726 and Cpy‐RM, respectively. Secondly, we calculated Au and Cu concentrations taking NIST SRM 610 as an unknown sample and using Po‐726 and Cpy‐RM as external calibrators. Again, the average values obtained closely reflected the preferred concentrations for NIST SRM 610. Finally, we calculated Au and Cu concentrations in natural pyrite using sulfide and silicate reference materials as external calibrators. In both cases, calculated concentrations were very similar, independent of the external calibrator used. The aforementioned data, plus the fact that we obtained very small differences in relative sensitivity values (percentage differences are between 5% and 17% for ⁵⁷Fe, ⁶³Cu and ¹⁹⁷Au) on analyses of silicate and sulfide RMs, indicate that there were no matrix effects related to the differences in material composition. Thus, it is possible to determine Au and Cu in natural sulfides using NIST silicate glasses as an external calibrator.     

用储层岩石抽提物的饱和烃色谱指纹识别油气层

利用储层岩石抽提物的饱和烃色 质总离子图的指纹特征判识储层的流体（油、气）类型。油层或油饱和的储层,饱和烃色 质总离子流图的特征是正构烷烃碳数分布宽,碳数分布在C₁₅～C₃₈之间,与原油样品的正构烷烃碳数分布相似;凝析气层的正构烷烃碳数分布略窄一些,碳数分布在C₁₅～C₃₅之间,低碳数（小于C₂₁）的正构烷烃相对于油层富集,高碳数（大于C₂₁）的正构烷烃丰度明显低于油层;干气层的正构烷烃碳数分布最窄,碳数分布在C₁₅～ C₂₈之间,只有低碳数的正构烷烃,高碳数的正构烷烃丰度极低。据此可用来识别油层、凝析气层和干气层,也可用于一些测井资料不全或测井质量差的老井的油气层复查、测井难以识别的火成岩油气层的识别,还可用于地层评价,为油气酸化层位的优选提供科学依据。     

Les orthomicaschistes,produits de la déformation cisaillante ductile synmétamorphe de granites avec transfert de matière : principaux caractères et exemples dans la chaîne varisque du Sud de la France

Résumé

Dans le segment varisque français, les associations d’orthogneiss et de micaschistes sont généralement interprétées comme correspondant originellement soit à des couples socle granitique -couverture pélitique, soit à des granités intrusifs dans un encaissant pélitique, soit encore à des séries détritiques ou volcano-détritiques. Certaines d’entre elles résultent en fait de la déformation cisaillante ductile hétérogène synmétamorphe d’anciens granités, associée à d’importants transferts de matière.

Cette interprétation se fonde essentiellement sur la reconnaissance dans des zones de cisaillement ductile de passages progressifs entre orthogneiss et micaschistes. Cette évolution, qui correspond à une séquence blastomylonitique ou sub-blastomylonitique, est caractérisée par une recristallisation complète, ou quasi-complète, dès le stade orthogneiss, accompagnée par une modification chimique marquée par une perte en Si, Ca et Na et une concentration corrélative en Al, Fe, Mg et Ti. Une telle évolution aboutit à des orthomicaschistes, roches entièrement recristallisées et à foliation bien définie, distincts des phyllonites et analogues aux « micaschistes rétrogrades ». Les associations métagranites - orthogneiss - orthomicaschistes reconnues occupent des surfaces allant de 50 à 500 km2 et l’épaisseur des nombreux niveaux d’orthomicaschistes va de quelques centimètres a plusieurs hectomètres.

En conséquence, dans les régions affectées par une intense déformation cisaillante ductile synmétamorphe, les transformations de granités peuvent être plus variées, plus importantes et plus généralisées qu’on ne l’admettait jusqu’ici.     

Comparative phylogeography of African rain forest trees: A review of genetic signatures of vegetation history in the Guineo-Congolian region

The biogeographic history of the African rain forests has been contentious. Phylogeography, the study of the geographic distribution of genetic lineages within species, can highlight the signatures of historical events affecting the demography and distribution of species (i.e. population fragmentation or size changes, range expansion/contraction) and, thereby, the ecosystems they belong to. The accumulation of recent data for African rain forests now enables a first biogeographic synthesis for the region. In this review, we explain which phylogeographic patterns are expected under different scenarios of past demographic change, and we give an overview of the patterns detected in African rain forest trees to discuss whether they support alternative hypotheses regarding the history of the African rain forest cover. The major genetic discontinuities in the region support the role of refugia during climatic oscillations, though not necessarily following the classically proposed scenarios. We identify in particular a genetic split between the North and the South of the Lower Guinean region. Finally we provide some perspectives for future study.