Probabilistic aspects of micropaleontologic assemblage zones

A micropaleontologic assemblage zone is defined by occurrence of some characteristic species among many coeval species. When number of assemblage-defining species and total number of species observed are designated as Aand N,respectively, the ratio, A/N,is strongly dependent on duration of the assemblage. Theoretical consideration on the basis of a micropaleontologic cohort model shows that, when origination rate and extinction rate of species are obtained, the most reasonable ratio (A/N) and duration of the assemblage can be determined. The probabilistic model described in this paper provides a theoretical relation between the ratio and the duration. Inaccuracy in correlating micropaleontologic data to certain assemblage zones established can not be avoided because of many natural sorting and artificial biases. Ambiguity arising when data with a small number of characteristic species are correlated with a certain assemblage is numerically estimated.     

Assessment of SARAL/AltiKa Wave Height Measurements Relative to Buoy,Jason-2, and Cryosat-2 Data

SARAL/AltiKa GDR-T are analyzed to assess the quality of the significant wave height (SWH) measurements. SARAL along-track SWH plots reveal cases of erroneous data, more or less isolated, not detected by the quality flags. The anomalies are often correlated with strong attenuation of the Ka-band backscatter coefficient, sensitive to clouds and rain. A quality test based on the 1 Hz standard deviation is proposed to detect such anomalies. From buoy comparison, it is shown that SARAL SWH is more accurate than Jason-2, particularly at low SWH, and globally does not require any correction. Results are better with open ocean than with coastal buoys. The scatter and the number of outliers are much larger for coastal buoys. SARAL is then compared with Jason-2 and Cryosat-2. The altimeter data are extracted from the global altimeter SWH Ifremer data base, including specific corrections to calibrate the various altimeters. The comparison confirms the high quality of SARAL SWH. The 1 Hz standard deviation is much less than for Jason-2 and Cryosat-2, particularly at low SWH. Furthermore, results show that the corrections applied to Jason-2 and to Cryosat-2, in the data base, are efficient, improving the global agreement between the three altimeters.     

新型张力腿式储油处理平台的动力响应分析

针对目前小油田早期生产中存在的不足,提出一种适用于浅水海域的新型张力腿式储油处理平台,该平台主要由储油箱、浮箱、吸力桩、系泊链和甲板结构构成,具备原油处理和储存功能。应用非线性时域耦合分析法,研究了有义波高、平均波周期、水深对该平台的运动响应和系泊链张力的影响。计算结果表明,波高对平台动力响应有较大影响,有义波高每增加0.4 m,平台水平位移相应增加0.408 m,而系泊链力随有义波高的增加呈准线性增大;波周期对平台水平运动影响显著,平均波周期从6.5 s逐级变化至8.5 s时,最大水平位移自3.760 m渐增至5.467 m,而波周期对系泊链力影响较小,变化率一般小于10%;该新型平台对水深大于20 m的浅水海域有良好的动力特性,而对水深小于20 m的海域却表现异常。因此,该新型张力腿式平台能满足水深不小于20 m浅海区的油田早期生产需要。     

Progress in Studies of the Precipitation Diurnal Variation over Contiguous China

This paper summarizes the recent progress in studies of the diurnal variation of precipitation over con- tiguous China. The main results are as follows. （1） The rainfall diurnal variation over contiguous China presents distinct regional features. In summer, precipitation peaks in the late afternoon over the south- ern inland China and northeastern China, while it peaks around midnight over southwestern China. In the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River valley, precipitation occurs mostly in the early morning. Summer precipitation over the central eastern China （most regions of the Tibetan Plateau） has two diurnal peaks, i.e., one in the early morning （midnight） and the other in the late afternoon. （2） The rainfall diurnal variation experiences obvious seasonal and sub-seasonal evolutions. In cold seasons, the regional contrast of rainfall diurnal peaks decreases, with an early morning maximum over most of the southern China. Over the central eastern China, diurnal monsoon rainfall shows sub-seasonal variations with the movement of summer monsoon systems. The rainfall peak mainly occurs in the early morning （late afternoon） during the active （break） monsoon period. （3） Cloud properties and occurrence time of rainfall diurnal peaks are different for long- and short-duration rainfall events. Long-duration rainfall events are dominated by strat- iform precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring in the late night to early morning, while short-duration rainfall events are more related to convective precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring between the late afternoon and early night. （4） The rainfall diurnal variation is influenced by multi-scale mountain-valley and land-sea breezes as well as large-scale atmospheric circulation, and involves complicated formation and evolution of cloud and rainfall systems. The diurnal cycle of winds in the lower troposphere also contributes to the regional differences     

我国东南沿海午后短时降水极端峰值强度与湿度和地表气温的关联

利用中国东南沿海地区55个站点的逐时降水、日平均地面温湿场、低空气温露点差及OISST海表温度资料,对午后短时降水的极端峰值强度与湿度和地表气温的关联进行分析。结果表明,东南沿海地区午后短时降水极端峰值强度随气温的变化趋势存在明显变化,日最高气温低于29℃时,峰值强度随气温升高而上升;日最高气温高于29℃时,峰值强度随气温升高而下降。分析水汽条件作用发现,峰值强度在高温条件下随气温的升高而下降的现象与相对湿度变化有关,日最高气温较高时,相对湿度随气温的升高而大幅减小。初步分析可知,当陆地达到较高温度并进一步增温时,附近海域海表温度变化不大,使得洋面水汽含量增加较少。在陆地水汽主要来自于海洋的情况下,伴随陆地的进一步升温,地表相对湿度将减小。     

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis on monthly-averaged distribution of sea surface wind and wave over the seas southeast of Asia using ERS-2 scatterometer data

The wind system over the seas southeast of Asia (SSEA) plays an important role in China's climate variation. In this paper, ERS scatterometer winds covering the period from January 2000 to December 2000 and the area of 2-41 °N, 105- 130°E were analyzed with a distance-weighting interpolation method and the monthly mean distribution of the sea surface wind speed were given. The seasonal characteristics of winds in the SSEA were analyzed. Based on WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model, distribution of significant wave height was calculated.     

Characteristics of rain events at an inland locality in northeastern Borneo,Malaysia

Understanding the intensity and duration of tropical rain events is critical to modelling the rate and timing of wet‐canopy evaporation, the suppression of transpiration, the generation of infiltration‐excess overland flow and hence to erosion, and to river responsiveness. Despite this central role, few studies have addressed the characteristics of equatorial rainstorms. This study analyses rainfall data for a 5 km² region largely comprising of the 4 km² Sapat Kalisun Experimental Catchment in the interior of northeastern Borneo at sampling frequencies from 1 min^?1 to 1 day^?1. The work clearly shows that most rainfall within this inland, forested area is received during regular short‐duration events (<15 min) that have a relatively low intensity (i.e. less than two 0·2 mm rain‐gauge tips in almost all 5 min periods). The rainfall appears localized, with significant losses in intergauge correlations being observable in minutes in the case of the typical mid‐afternoon, convective events. This suggests that a dense rain‐gauge network, sampled at a high temporal frequency, is required for accurate distributed rainfall‐runoff modelling of such small catchments. Observed rain‐event intensity is much less than the measured infiltration capacities, and thus supports the tenet of the dominance of quick subsurface responses in controlling river behaviour in this small equatorial catchment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration and controlling factors: Implications for climatic drought in karst areas

Variations in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and drought characteristics play a key role in the effect of climate change on water cycle and associated ecohydrological patterns. The accurate estimation of ET₀ is still a challenge due to the lack of meteorological data and the heterogeneity of hydrological system. Although there is an increasing trend in extreme drought events with global climate change, the relationship between ET₀ and aridity index in karst areas has been poorly studied. In this study, we used the Penman–Monteith method based on a long time series of meteorological data from 1951 to 2015 to calculate ET₀ in a typical karst area, Guilin, Southwest China. The temporal variations in climate variables, ET₀ and aridity index (AI) were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall trend test and linear regression to determine the climatic characteristics, associated controlling factors of ET₀ variations, and further to estimate the relationship between ET₀ and AI. We found that the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures had increased significantly during the 65-year study period, while sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity exhibited significant decreasing trends. The annual ET₀ showed a significant decreasing trend at the rate of ?8.02 mm/10a. However, significant increase in air temperature should have contributed to the enhancement of ET₀, indicating an “evaporation paradox”. In comparison, AI showed a slightly declining trend of ?0.0005/a during 1951–2015. The change in sunshine duration was the major factor causing the decrease in ET₀, followed by wind speed. AI had a higher correlation with precipitation amount, indicating that the variations of AI was more dependent on precipitation, but not substantially dependent on the ET₀. Although AI was not directly related to ET₀, ET₀ had a major contribution to seasonal AI changes. The seasonal variations of ET₀ played a critical role in dryness/wetness changes to regulate water and energy supply, which can lead to seasonal droughts or water shortages in karst areas. Overall, these findings provide an important reference for the management of agricultural production and water resources, and have an important implication for drought in karst regions of China.     

半干旱沙地-草甸区水面蒸发模拟及其影响因子辨识

在分析半干旱沙地—草甸区的水面蒸发过程及其影响因子的基础上,采用多元逐步回归分析方法,对水面蒸发的众多影响因子进行逐步筛选,找出显著影响因子,建立水面蒸发与其显著影响因子间的多元非线性回归模型,并模拟计算了彭曼蒸发公式、道尔顿水汽运输理论蒸发公式中的风函数,比较分析了彭曼模型、变异道尔顿模型、多元非线性回归模型计算的水面蒸发量。结果表明:彭曼模型、变异道尔顿模型和最终建立的多元非线性逐步回归模型所得结果十分接近,与实测水面蒸发量的趋势也很一致;除变异道尔顿模型稳定性稍差外,其余两者都具有较好的稳定性;多元非线性逐步回归方法可以找到水面蒸发的显著影响因子,剔除掉不显著影响因子,避免因子相关造成的影响,使所建回归模型具有良好的拟合效果,其决定系数达到了0.773,预测结果令人满意。