On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.     

1981-2015年西藏全区气候季节的变化

利用1981-2015年西藏全区39个气象观测站的观测资料,采用修订气候季节划分方法,分析了39站季节起始日与季节长度,代表站的季节极端日期、极端长度、季节早晚、季节长短等级变化趋势及其对农牧业、旅游业的影响。结果表明：西藏近35年来,春、夏、秋、冬季平均起始日分别为2月25日、5月31日、9月15日和11月28日,平均长度分别为99 d、106 d、73 d和87 d,且区域差异比较明显。波密、加查、尼木、狮泉河、申扎站春季的起始日在提前,分别为-5.8、-1.2、-3.3、-2.5、-2.3 d·（10a）^-1;秋冬季的开始日在推迟,分别为1.4（1.5）、2.1（4.2）、1.9（4.4）、1.0（2.5）、1.2（4.0）d·（10a）^-1。春（夏、秋）季持续时间在延长,分别为7.0（1.3、0.1）、0.04（3.3、2.1）、1.0（4.6、2.5）、0.1（3.4、1.6）、1.7（1.8、2.8）d·（10a）^-1;冬季持续时间在缩短,分别为-8.5、-5.4、-7.8、-5.1、-6.2 d·（10a）^-1。春季的提前与季节长度的延长,使作物播种期与牧草返青期提早;秋季的推迟与季节长度的缩短使得作物复种机会大;同时对农作物的种植结构、作物品种熟性布局以及旅游业都有一定的影响。     

Probabilistic aspects of micropaleontologic assemblage zones

A micropaleontologic assemblage zone is defined by occurrence of some characteristic species among many coeval species. When number of assemblage-defining species and total number of species observed are designated as Aand N,respectively, the ratio, A/N,is strongly dependent on duration of the assemblage. Theoretical consideration on the basis of a micropaleontologic cohort model shows that, when origination rate and extinction rate of species are obtained, the most reasonable ratio (A/N) and duration of the assemblage can be determined. The probabilistic model described in this paper provides a theoretical relation between the ratio and the duration. Inaccuracy in correlating micropaleontologic data to certain assemblage zones established can not be avoided because of many natural sorting and artificial biases. Ambiguity arising when data with a small number of characteristic species are correlated with a certain assemblage is numerically estimated.     

以生态-经济为导向的江苏省土地开发适宜性分区

随着城市化和工业化进程的加快,经济发达地区大量的农业及生态保护用地被侵占,开发可持续性受到威胁。从协调经济、人口、资源、环境相互关系出发,空间开发强调因地制宜,即让开发成本低、资源环境容量大的地区承担高强度的工业化和城市化等社会经济活动;而让生态价值高、开发难度大的区域承担农业和生态维护功能。土地开发适宜性分区,以生态-经济为导向,借鉴已有区划方法,采用要素层-关系层-逻辑层-应用层的技术路线,评价适宜各单元的开发强度,划分开发与保护空间。将这一方法运用于江苏省的案例研究之中,以县和省辖市市区为基本评价单元,通过选择自然生态与经济社会两方面的指标,综合分析生态和经济重要性指数,将江苏全省划分为优先开发区域、适度开发区域、适度保护区域、优先保护区域和灰色区域等五大类型区。这一结果可以作为引导空间开发秩序、实施区域建设空间管制的重要依据。     

黄海海浪季节变化的数值模拟研究

利用第三代海浪数值模式SWAN,研究了黄海海浪有效波高的季节变化特征及相关的物理过程。结果表明,在黄海的大部分区域,混合浪有效波高的最大值出现在冬季,而最小值则基本出现在夏季。北黄海北部和山东半岛南岸的近海海域呈现稍微不同的季节变化,有效波高的最大值出现在春季。全年4个季节中混合浪有效波高的空间分布基本一致:均在济州岛西南最大,沿黄海中部区域向北和由中部区域向近岸区域逐渐减小。黄海海浪为风浪占主,涌浪有效波高远小于风浪有效波高。在黄海的大部分区域,白冠耗散和四波非线性相互作用对黄海海浪的季节变化均至关重要;对于外海区域,四波非线性相互作用更为重要,而对于近海区域,白冠耗散则影响更大。本研究旨在研究黄海海浪的季节变化特征及其物理过程,为进一步探讨该海域海浪在其他时间尺度上的变异特征和动力学过程提供研究基础。     

1961-2005年中国霾日气候特征及变化分析

利用1961-2005 年中国霾日统计资料, 对中国霾的时空气候分布特征、变化趋势进行了详细分析, 并探讨了霾变化的可能原因及其与太阳总辐射、日照时数变化的关系。结果表明: 近45 年来, 中国年和四季霾日的空间分布特征均呈现东多西少的空间分布态势, 东部地区集中在三个多发区, 分别为长江中下游、华北和华南; 季节变化, 除东北地区、青藏高原、西北西部四季霾日均很少且变化不明显外, 其余大部分地区均呈现为冬季多, 夏季少, 春秋 季居中的特点。近45 年, 全国平均年霾日数呈现明显的增加趋势, 2004 年为最高值。我国东部大部地区主要呈现增加趋势, 尤其霾多发地区, 如长江中下游、珠江流域及河南西部等 地, 霾日增加幅度大, 趋势显著, 人类活动造成的大气污染物增加及天气气候变化是这些地区霾日呈现增加趋势的可能原因, 我国西部地区和东北大部地区则以减少趋势为主。华北、长江中下游地区、华南地区霾日变化趋势与日照时数变化趋势相反, 霾的增加是造成太阳总 辐射减少的主要原因之一。东北地区、西北地区、西南地区、青藏高原霾日变化和日照时数变化均呈现不明显的减少趋势, 但由于这些地区霾日发生少, 其变化不会对日照时数和太阳总辐射变化造成很大的影响。     

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of rain events at an inland locality in northeastern Borneo,Malaysia

Understanding the intensity and duration of tropical rain events is critical to modelling the rate and timing of wet‐canopy evaporation, the suppression of transpiration, the generation of infiltration‐excess overland flow and hence to erosion, and to river responsiveness. Despite this central role, few studies have addressed the characteristics of equatorial rainstorms. This study analyses rainfall data for a 5 km² region largely comprising of the 4 km² Sapat Kalisun Experimental Catchment in the interior of northeastern Borneo at sampling frequencies from 1 min^?1 to 1 day^?1. The work clearly shows that most rainfall within this inland, forested area is received during regular short‐duration events (<15 min) that have a relatively low intensity (i.e. less than two 0·2 mm rain‐gauge tips in almost all 5 min periods). The rainfall appears localized, with significant losses in intergauge correlations being observable in minutes in the case of the typical mid‐afternoon, convective events. This suggests that a dense rain‐gauge network, sampled at a high temporal frequency, is required for accurate distributed rainfall‐runoff modelling of such small catchments. Observed rain‐event intensity is much less than the measured infiltration capacities, and thus supports the tenet of the dominance of quick subsurface responses in controlling river behaviour in this small equatorial catchment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A bivariate gamma distribution for use in multivariate flood frequency analysis

A gamma distribution is one of the most frequently selected distribution types for hydrological frequency analysis. The bivariate gamma distribution with gamma marginals may be useful for analysing multivariate hydrological events. This study investigates the applicability of a bivariate gamma model with five parameters for describing the joint probability behavior of multivariate flood events. The parameters are proposed to be estimated from the marginal distributions by the method of moments. The joint distribution, the conditional distribution, and the associated return periods are derived from marginals. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by representing the joint probabilistic behaviour between correlated flood peak and flood volume and between correlated flood volume and flood duration in the Madawask River basin in the province of Quebec, Canada. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Jordan日照记录阈值分析

本文是通过10个月的日射、日照资料对比观测、统计的乔唐、康氏和光电式日照计记录阈值的平均值和标准偏差,分析了乔唐日照计进光孔径、涂药方式对感光迹线的影响,测定了感光药的吸收光谱,并根据日出日没时直接日射辐照度的平均变化率,估算了由阈值的不确定度引起的日照时数的误差,从而为我国几十年的乔唐日照资料的评价提供依据。