近震信号检测参数设置研究

地震信号检测是进行各种地震数据分析和处理的首要任务,STA/LTA方法具有算法简单、便于实时处理等特点,被广泛应用于地震信号检测.结合实际震例数据研究STA/LTA方法进行地震信号检测的各种影响因素,得到该方法进行检测时最合理的参数设置范围.     

Source parameters determination for earthquakes in Kushiro,Japan considering source time function

This paper applies a new formulation to do moment tensor inversion for earthquakes in the Kushiro area of Japan. Comparing with conventional moment tensor inversion method, the new one takes the effect of source time function into consideration. For the inversion, best solution is obtained by minimizing the difference between the observed seismograms and the synthetic ones. And the best-fitting focal depth is determined from the variance reduction. The results indicate that half duration of source time function is proportional to the magnitude of earthquakes. Large earthquakes have long half duration, whereas that of moderate-small earthquakes is comparatively shorter. The focal mechanisms of all three earthquakes are of thrust fault type, which is mainly ascribed to the collision of the North American plate with the Eurasia plate in the late Cretaceous or Paleogene.     

The comparison of altimeter retrieval algorithms of the wind speed and the wave period

With the launch of altimeter,much effort has been made to develop algorithms on the wind speed and the wave period.By using a large data set of collocated altimeter and buoy measurements,the typical wind speed and wave period algorithms are validated.Based on theoretical argument and the concept of wave age,a semi-empirical algorithm for the wave period is also proposed,which has the wave-period dimension,and explicitly demonstrates the relationships between the wave period and the other variables.It is found that Ku and C band data should be applied simultaneously in order to improve either wind speed or wave period algorithms.The dual-band algorithms proposed by Chen et al.(2002) for the wind speed and Quilfen et al.(2004) for the wave period perform best in terms of a root mean square error in the practical applications.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.     

从构造热事件探讨湖南志留纪沉积时限兼论盆地演化特征

湖南地区志留纪的沉积时限一直以来争议颇多,笔者通过对该区沉积特征及层序地层、构造运动分析发现:小溪峪组属于一套有障壁海岸浅海细碎屑沉积,是海水由南东向北西退却期的沉积响应,属于早期高水位体系域;泥盆系云台观组属一套海侵型的海相陆源碎屑岩沉积,从野外的界面特征分析云台观组为一套开阔海岸受波浪作用明显的以石英砂为主体的沉积物,属于广西运动之后由东南向北西形成的海侵过程的沉积响应。小溪峪组与云台观组二者所属沉积盆地环境和演化不同,其界面属于Ⅰ型层序界面,不整合接触。广西运动导致的江南造山带的隆起在430Ma左右结束,志留纪沉积盆地应大部分消亡,由此认为志留纪沉积盆地接受的沉积物时间也应在相对应时段中,小溪峪组在湖南地区不存在晚志留纪沉积物。     

Foraging strategy of little auks under divergent conditions on feeding grounds

A dual foraging strategy (long versus short trips) has been described for some species of seabirds, such as petrels, albatrosses (Procellariiformes) and penguins (Sphenisciphormes). Such a strategy has recently been reported for little auks ( Alle alle ) from the central coast of west Spitsbergen, Svalbard. This has been explained as a response to poor trophic conditions close to the breeding colony, and better conditions further away (150 km). In the present study, we investigated the foraging strategy of little auks in Hornsund, southern Spitsbergen, during two seasons with contrasting oceanographic conditions. During 2004, foraging conditions for little auks were good: cold Arctic waters rich in profitable high-energy food were dominant in their feeding grounds. Conversely, during 2006 there was a great influx of warm Atlantic water in the feeding area, inducing poor foraging conditions. In both seasons we examined the pattern of foraging trip lengths automatically with a video camera (both adults from four nests in each year), and by direct non-stop observation of 20–54 individually marked birds. Our results showed that the dual strategy and the ratio of short and long trips were consistent, regardless of the conditions in the feeding grounds. This suggests that the strategy is inherent and may be crucial for the self-maintenance of adults.     

连续变量的自适应局部空间同位模式挖掘算法

目前,局部空间同位模式挖掘方法存在需要预设定邻域范围、挖掘的结果无统计显著性意义而难以对结论进行科学地判定等问题,如当前常用的\begin{array}{c}K\end{array}近邻方法难以确定合适的搜索圆半径,而固定距离法由于空间数据集的多尺度特性,距离阈值的设定对结果的影响较大。因此,针对连续变量的空间采样点数据集,本文提出了一种自适应局部空间同位模式挖掘算法。首先,定义了连续变量的空间同位模式兴趣度函数、模式指示器函数及Voronoi邻域,并通过构建Voronoi邻域矩阵避免了预设定邻域阈值的问题,最后采用\begin{array}{c}{G_i}^{*}\end{array}统计量进行局部空间同位模式及其区域的发现,使挖掘的结果具有统计显著性意义,进而帮助专家对挖掘结果做出更科学的判定。通过使用真实的连接了烟草适应性评价结果的耕地地力样点调查数据和水污染数据,对开发的算法进行测试。实验结果表明,算法无需预设邻域范围,可查找同区域内的不同空间同位模式。实验所发现的局部空间同位模式发现了实验数据研究区域存在的特有现象,对耕地地力调查工作具有实际的指导作用。     

Application of Fourier series in managing the seasonality of convective and monsoon rainfall

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the performance of Fourier series in representing seasonal variations of the tropical rainfall process in Malaysia. Fourier series are incorporated into a spatial-temporal stochastic model in an attempt to make the model parsimonious and, at the same time, capture the annual variation of rainfall distribution. In view of Malaysia’s main rainfall regime, the model is individually fitted for two regions with distinctive rainfall profiles: one being an urban area receiving rainfall from convective activities whilst the other receives rainfall from monsoonal activities. Since both regions are susceptible to floods, the study focuses on the rainfall process at fine resolution. Fourier series equations are developed to represent the model’s parameters to describe their annual periodicity. The number of significant harmonics for each parameter is determined by inspecting the cumulative fraction of total variance explained by the significant harmonics. Results reveal that the number of significant harmonics assigned for the parameters is slightly higher in the region with monsoonal rains. The overall simulation results show that the proposed model is capable of generating tropical rainfall series from convective and monsoonal activities.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor K. Hamed