Variational analysis of dynamics of fissured poroelastic rocks

Rocks can be modeled in a continuum framework as fissured, poroelastic materials, i.e., materials with two degrees of porosity, one due to the fissures and another one due to the pores. The governing equations of motion of fissured poroelastic rocks established by Beskos are rederived here by establishing a variational statement which also provides the boundary conditions of the problem. This is accomplished by considering strain, dissipation and kinetic energies as well as the work of external forces. The above statement is also derived here by employing the method of weighted residuals.     

ISA model: A constitutive model for soils with yield surface in the intergranular strain space

In this article, a new constitutive model for soils is proposed. It is formulated by means of plasticity, but in contrast to the precedent works, it presents a yield function describing a surface within the intergranular strain space. This latter is a state variable providing information of the recent strain history. An expression for the plastic strain rate has been proposed to guarantee the stress rate continuity. Under the application of medium or large strain amplitudes, the constitutive equation becomes independent of the intergranular strain and delivers a mathematical structure similar to some Karlsruhe hypoplastic models. Some simulations of monotonic and cyclic triaxial test are provided to evaluate and analyze the model performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical implementation of the installation/mooring line and application to analyzing comprehensive anchor behaviors

With the application of innovative anchor concepts and advanced technologies in deepwater moorings, anchor behaviors in the seabed are becoming more complicated and pose a great challenge to the analytical methods. In the present work, a large deformation finite element (FE) analysis employing the coupled Eulerian–Lagrangian technique is performed to simulate the installation/mooring line, and then is applied to analyzing comprehensive anchor behaviors in the seabed. By connecting cylindrical units with each other using connector elements, the installation/mooring line is constructed. With the constructed installation/mooring line, FE simulations are carried out to investigate comprehensive anchor behaviors in the seabed, including long-distance penetration of drag anchors, keying of suction embedded plate anchors and non-catastrophic behavior of gravity-installed anchors. Through comparative studies, the accuracy of the proposed method is well examined. A parametric study is also undertaken to quantify the effects of the frictional coefficient, initial embedment depth, and soil weight on the profile of the embedded anchor line and the shackle load. The present work demonstrates that the proposed FE model, which incorporates the installation/mooring line and the anchor, is effective in analyzing the comprehensive anchor behaviors in the seabed.     

Linking foraging behavior and diet in a diving seabird

Foraging behavior and diet of breeding seabirds may be analysed simultaneously with the combined use of remote sensing devices and stable isotope analysis. Imperial shag, Phalacrocorax atriceps, breeding at Punta León colony, Argentina, were equipped with global positioning system (GPS) loggers to record foraging trips and blood samples were taken after removal of the devices in order to analyse their nitrogen and carbon stable isotope composition in whole blood and plasma. Whole blood was correlated to plasma isotopic composition for each individual (n = 35), linking diet in the short and medium term. Sexes did not differ in isotopic signatures. The maximum distance reached and the total number of dives that individuals made on two consecutive foraging trips were correlated to their plasma nitrogen isotopic signature. Individuals that went further from the colony and dived fewer times presented more positive signatures, indicative of benthic prey consumption (e.g. Raneya brasiliensis). Diet was predominantly benthic with some individuals incorporating pelagic prey (Engraulis anchoita) and even cephalopods (Octopus tehuelchus). Within breeding pairs (n = 9), different combinations of foraging and prey preferences were observed. Estimated trophic levels of these individuals were similar to those of the same species in other colonies further south along the Patagonian coast.     

Study of Influence of Regional Geodynamic Background on Strata Behaviors in China's Tongxin Mine

Strata behaviors are mainly affected by regional geodynamic background. The influence of rock mass stress and energy distribution on strata behaviors in the Tongxin mine is studied in terms of regional tectonic movement, seismic activity and tectonic stress field. The results show that the extrusion lifting movement of Kouquan fault adjacent to the Tongxin mine results in the stress concentration in the rock of the Carboniferous coal bed and accumulation of a large amount of elastic energy and forms structural background of Tongxin mine. Due to various seismic activities in the mine area, the strain energy is known to reach much higher levels, up to 0.5×10⁸ J^1/2. Since the stratigraphic structure is sensitive to the mining operation, the strain energy could cause strong strata behaviors. A special geological structure model of the Tongxin mine is established based on the geodynamic division method. The distribution of regional structure stress field is determined by the rock mass stress analysis system. Based on this model, Tongxin mine is divided into five areas with high stress, eight areas with low stress and eight areas with gradient stress. The strong strata behaviors mostly occur in high stress areas. These results could provide guidance to predict the strength of regional or mine pressure and control strata behavior in different areas.     

深部地质钻探钻柱失效行为分析

国家的“三深一土”规划确定全面开展深地探测,而在深地探测中钻柱是最重要的连接纽带,其长期在充满钻井液的井眼内工作,受力十分复杂,且受腐蚀、磨损、温度等影响,极易发生钻柱失效事故,造成重大经济损失。研究发现,振动是引起钻柱失效的主要原因,但是深部地质钻探中除了振动引起钻柱失效外,还包括钻柱质量因素、人为因素、钻井质量、套管下入因素、测斜因素以及钻井液因素引起的钻柱失效,本文针对这些影响因素提出了对应的预防措施。同时随着地质钻探井深的不断加深,地质钻探钻柱动力学研究会变得越来越重要,这就需要地质钻探人员在充分考虑地质钻探钻柱失效影响因素的前提下,加大对地质钻探钻柱动力学的研究,以更好地保证深部地质钻探的顺利进行。     

搬迁农户生计策略与土地利用行为耦合协调度分析--以贵州省习水县为例

易地扶贫搬迁改变了搬迁农户生计策略,同时影响了其土地利用行为,二者之间的耦合协调度直接影响着农户的可持续生计。本文以贵州省习水县易地搬迁农户调研数据为基础,构建以农户生计策略和土地利用行为为子系统的耦合协调度模型,分析2个子系统之间的耦合关系和耦合协调关系。研究表明:纯农型农户、农兼型农户、兼农型农户生计策略与土地利用行为之间的耦合度值介于0.4~0.5之间,水平较低,处于拮抗状态;不同类型农户生计策略与土地利用行为系统耦合协调度值均处于0.39~0.49之间,处于濒临失调阶段,存在较大优化空间;传统的农业生产形式对于改善农户生计无明显效果,引导农户向专业农业型农户转变对于促进移民安置区“人地系统”协调发展大有裨益。研究结果可为农户生计与土地利用的可持续发展提供理论依据。     

Indian Ocean Dipole-related Predictability Barriers Induced by Initial Errors in the Tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM

利用GFDL CM2p1模式, 本文探讨了初始海温误差对印度洋偶极子(IOD)事件可预报性的影响. 当热带印度洋存在初始海温误差时, IOD预报发生了冬季预报障碍(WPB)现象和夏季预报障碍(SPB)现象. WPB发生与否与正IOD事件发展位相冬季的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关. 即当冬季存在ENSO时, IOD预测不发生WPB现象, 反之亦然. 相比之下, SPB发生与否和ENSO没有必然联系. 此外, 进一步探讨了最容易导致SPB现象的初始海温误差的主要模态, 指出该模态在热带印度洋上表现为东-西偶极子型, 这和前人研究中最容易导致WPB现象的初始海温误差模态相似. 当在热带印度洋上叠加这些初始海温误差后, 热带太平洋上出现了海表温度异常和风场异常, 进而通过大气桥和印尼贯穿流的作用影响热带印度洋, 使之在夏季出现了东-西偶极子型的海表温度异常, 该异常在Bjerknes作用下快速发展, 加强, 最终导致SPB现象的发生.     

基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.     

10~30 d延伸期可预报性与预报方法研究进展

10~30 d延伸期的可预报性既依赖于初始条件,也与缓变的下垫面有关,寻找延伸期时段内可预报性较高的低频特征,识别延伸期的可预报性来源及影响的物理机制是提高延伸期预报水平的关键。近年延伸期可预报性来源、热带大气季节内振荡监测预测和影响等领域的研究取得较大进展,提出和应用了动力统计相结合以及大气低频信号释用等新的延伸期预报方法。对延伸期可预报性来源及其与初值和外强迫异常的关系分析表明,海气相互作用能提高亚洲和西太平洋区域延伸期时段大气环流和要素的可预报性。热带大气季节内振荡、平流层爆发性增温以及各种次季节尺度的海气、陆气耦合作用和大气响应均为延伸期预报提供了重要的可预报性来源。由于数值模式延伸期时段的预报性能与实际业务需求还存在一定距离,基于动力统计相结合和物理统计的延伸期预报方法被广泛应用于业务预报,表现出一定的预报技巧。