预测有效波高的深度学习模型研究

研究基于RNN、LSTM、GRU深度学习模型,针对NOAA浮标数据集中的44013、44014、44017浮标的数据,通过斯皮尔曼相关性分析提高模型预测效果。实验结果表明,在进行相关性分析后,S-RNN、S-LSTM、 S-GRU的预测效果均比原始RNN、LSTM、GRU模型预测效果好。此外,提出一种基于LSTM的LSTM-Attention 波高预测模型,并进行相关实验,量化LSTM-Attention模型的预测效果,实验结果表明LSTM-Attention模型有更好的预测效果。为评估模型的泛化能力,研究还提出了一种采用邻近浮标数据进行学习,预测浮标缺失数据的方 法。实验结果表明,该方法的预测精度可以达到97.93%。本研究为海浪预测提供了新的方法和思路,也为未来深 度学习模型在海浪预测中的应用提供了参考。     

OC4漂浮式风电平台的水弹性响应及波浪载荷研究

漂浮式风电平台在波浪中的摇晃运动会导致塔架根部产生很大的弯矩,极大地威胁平台结构安全。同时流体的附连水质量效应对平台塔架结构的动响应有着较为显著的影响,因此充分考虑这种流固耦合效应有利于更加准确地评估平台塔架的结构动响应。采用三维频域线性水弹性方法计算塔架在流体作用下的结构共振频率特征以及各阶模态振动的主坐标响应特性,然后通过弹性模态叠加法获得塔架的弯矩载荷。并结合概率学手段,预报了短期极限海况下塔架弯曲载荷响应,为新一代漂浮式风电平台结构安全性评估和方案设计提供了技术支撑。     

Estimated mass and stiffness matrices of shear building from modal test data

A method that estimates mass and stiffness matrices of shear building from modal test data is presented in this paper. The method depends on only measurable points that are less in number than the total structural degrees of freedom, and on the first two orders of structural mode measured. So it is applicable to most of the general test. Based on this method modal data of unmeasurable points are estimated, then global mass and stiffness matrices of structure are obtained by using the first two orders of modal data. Taking advantage of iteration the optimum global mass and stiffness matrices are gained. Finally, an example is studied in this paper. Its result shows that this method is reliable. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emergence patterns and microhabitat preference of aquatic dance flies (Empididae; Clinocerinae and Hemerodromiinae) on a longitudinal gradient of barrage lake system

Aquatic dance flies (Empididae; Clinocerinae and Hemerodromiinae) are important components of freshwater assemblages, especially in running waters. They are predators as larvae and adults and thus essential for understanding aquatic food webs. This study was conducted in Plitvice lakes National Park (Croatia) representing a wide variety of freshwater habitats (springs, streams, lakes and tufa barriers). Adults were collected monthly from March 2007 until March 2009 using pyramid-type emergence traps at 13 locations. A total of 3865 specimens comprising 18 species were collected. The dominant genus was Chelifera, while the most abundant species was Hemerodromia unilineata. All species were univoltine except Chelifera precabunda, Chelifera pyrenaica and Chelifera stigmatica that were bivoltine. Considerable differences in composition and structure of aquatic dance flies assemblages were recorded along a longitudinal gradient of studied sites, primarily related to differences in physical and chemical parameters of water. Water temperature was the main factor influencing the timing of emergence. Hemerodromia species preferred variable water temperature throughout the year while the majority of the Chelifera species preferred stable water temperature characteristic of spring sites. Furthermore, discharge affected assemblage composition of aquatic dance flies. The highest abundance of aquatic dance flies was recorded in lotic habitats with fast water current over substrates of moss, gravel and particulate tufa with detritus. These results give a new insight on microhabitat preference and their distribution on unique karstic habitats.     

简单热带海气耦合模型中不同扰动形式的作用

在局地热平衡情况下,将物理量先用韦伯函数展开,然后去掉相应分量的滤波方 法,讨论了简单热带海气耦合模型中不同形式扰动的作用和贡献,结果表明,在热带海气耦合 系统中,大气准定常 Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波和海洋 Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波对于耦合系统贡献较大,它们决定着耦合系统 与耦合扰动的性质,而大气准定常Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波和海洋Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波对于耦合系统贡献相对较小．     

耗散大气中水平不均匀风场对内重力波传播的影响

采用包括耗散的射线跟踪方法,计算了在水平不均匀风场作用下,不同尺度重力波从对流层直至220km观测高度的传播,结果表明,垂直于重力波传播方向的风以及风剪切能够引起波射线的折射,从而导致重力波明显偏离初始传播方向.在强顺风场作用下,由于风场引起的捕获,大量重力波不能传播到观测高度.由于风场引起的多普勒频移,小周期的重力波在弱顺风条件下能够传播到观测高度.由于反射作用,强逆风场不支持周期低于约18min的较高频重力波的传播.而在弱逆风作用下,大部分中尺度范围重力波都能够传播到观测高度.本文统计了武汉电离层观象台的TID观测数据随热层风场的分布,统计结果与模拟结果符合较好.     

A critical analysis of the concept of planetary wave breaking

The concept of planetary wave breaking (McIntyre andPalmer, 1983; 1984) is critically reviewed. It is concluded that the wave breaking signature is not unique to any particular dynamic event in the stratosphere. Therefore, the classification of stratospheric transport events, such as wave breaking, groups fundamentally different events together. Better qualification of the wave breaking signature and a more solid theoretical basis of planetary wave breaking must be presented if the concept is to be of significant utility in describing stratospheric tracer transport.     

速度传感反馈地震计的参数稳定性分析

从理论上定量分析机械摆和环路滤波等开环诸参数变化对速度传感反馈地震计闭环参数的影响.研究指出,在环路设计中可半自由选取的开环阻尼取值对参数稳定性有重要影响.过大或过小的开环阻尼取值均可能造成参数稳定性急剧变差,影响地震计在只标不调的状况下长期连续稳定工作.     

岩石嵌固掏挖基础抗拔承载特性及其影响因素研究

岩石嵌固掏挖基础目前已经广泛应用于电力基础工程中。原状土由于受扰动较小,胶结性强,具有良好的抗剪强度,对掏挖基础抗拔承载力具有重要影响,因此研究原状土参数变化对基础上拔承载性能的影响规律具有重要意义。结合现场试验,建立数值模型,研究土体黏聚力、内摩擦角、弹性模量对基础上拔承载性能的影响规律。研究表明:土体内摩擦角和黏聚力对基础抗拔承载力具有较大影响,而弹性模量影响程度较低;参数的变化对土体塑性区发展规律影响较小。     

四氢呋喃水合物沉积物静动力学性质试验研究

利用研制的天然气水合物沉积物合成与力学性质测试一体化试验设备,以粉细砂土和蒙古砂土作为沉积物骨架,对四氢呋喃(THF)水合物沉积物进行了静动三轴试验,获得了水合物分解前后沉积物样品的应力-应变关系、强度和液化特性,对两种骨架的水合物沉积物的性质进行了对比,同时将水合物分解后的沉积物与对应的饱和土的动三轴试验结果进行了对比。结果表明：水合物沉积物均表现为塑性破坏;围压越大,水合物沉积物强度越高;水合物分解导致沉积物的强度大幅降低;水合物分解后沉积物液化所需的时间较饱和水沉积物缩短