北京市怀柔区北干沟金矿床与韧性剪切带的关系

北干沟金矿床是韧性剪切带含金石英脉型金矿床。韧性剪切带以发育糜棱岩和片理化带为特征,应变强度和退化变质作用从边缘到中心逐渐增强,并形成鞘褶皱;韧性构造岩具有分带性;产于韧性剪切带中心部位的石英脉是主要的含金脉体;韧性剪切带的形态、活动阶段及韧性剪切变质岩的分带性对金矿具有明显的控制作用。     

基于气温和体感温度的中国南方地区供暖必要性分析

利用1961—2017年中国各省市701个完整时间序列逐日气象资料的台站数据,以《民用建筑供暖通风与空气调节设计规范》(GB50736—2012)中的供暖标准为指标,采用滑动5 d平均方法,从气温和体感温度两种角度,分析了中国南方地区省市供暖的必要性.结果表明:从气温计算的采暖期看,江苏省、安徽省北部、四川省西部、贵州...     

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海“空台”环流特征分析

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海出现了史无前例的“空台”事件。利用NCEP再分析数据集、中国气象局（CMA）台风最佳路径等资料研究了此次“空台”现象的大尺度环流背景及动力和热力学特征。使用台风潜在生成指数（DGPI）分析发现2020年7月大尺度环流背景不利于台风生成,环流系统的异常通过影响对流层垂直风切变和垂直运动限制了台风的活动。2020年7月马斯克林高压较常年明显偏西偏弱,导致索马里急流强度减弱,越赤道气流不活跃,菲律宾以东洋面和南海海域盛行一致的偏东气流,历史同期活跃在该区域的季风槽无法建立,从而不利于热带扰动的生成。北半球极涡主体偏向西半球一侧,影响东半球冷空气势力较弱,副热带高压位置偏西;南亚高压较历史同期偏强且偏东,其东侧强盛的偏东气流将洋中槽截断,在西北太平洋区域出现反气旋性环流,该区域下沉气流增强,导致副热带高压强度增强,对流层中层强烈的下沉气流抑制了台风的生成和发展。此外,受中高层环流系统异常的影响,7月菲律宾吕宋岛以东洋面和南海地区环境垂直风切变较常年偏高2～4 m/s,南海部分海域偏高达4～8 m/s,同时该区域内异常偏强的下沉气流导致对流层低层相对湿度偏低,大气层...     

Analysis of threshold and incipient conditions for sediment movement

Prediction of threshold conditions and incipient motion is the essential issue for the study of sediment transport. This work compares existing empirical threshold curves proposed for Shields diagram, a method based on the concept of probability of sediment movement, and an empirical method based on movability number. These methods are used to predict the incipient motion conditions for experimental runs taken from various studies. Most of the experimental data, used in this work, have not been used before in derivation of alternative formulations for Shields diagram and other methods. The empirical threshold curves based on the Shields entrainment function was the least successful at predicting the measured incipient motion conditions, while the use of the movability number gives good predictions of critical shear velocity compared with experimental data.     

库岸边坡倾角及水位变化对红土型库岸稳定性影响研究

水库库岸失稳对水库安全运行有重大影响。采用土工试验和干湿循环试验,结合数值计算及理论分析,研究红土型库岸边坡倾角和库水位升降与库岸稳定性的关系。结果表明:(1)在一定初始干密度条件下,红土抗剪强度随水位升降循环次数增加而非线性减小,且在水位升降循环约10次时趋于稳定。(2)在一定水位升降速率、升降幅度和升降循环次数条件下,红土型库岸稳定安全系数随库岸边坡倾角的增加总体上呈减小的趋势,且在边坡倾角为50°左右存在稳定安全系数极小值。(3)在一定水位升降循环次数条件下,水位上升到坡高的60%左右为上升阶段的相对危险区域,且水位上升速率对库岸稳定安全系数影响很小;水位下降至坡高的70%左右为库水位下降阶段的相对危险区域,且水位下降速率越大,库岸稳定安全系数越小。(4)针对一定初始干密度,库岸稳定安全系数先随水位升降循环次数的增加而减小,但在水位升降循环次数约10次后逐渐趋于稳定。库岸岩土体性质及库岸边坡倾角、水位变化都会对库岸稳定产生影响。     

基于孔隙率的延安黄土抗剪强度模型

孔隙率对黄土抗剪强度具有非常重要的影响,然而,孔隙率对黄土抗剪强度影响效果的认识并不充分。本文以陕西省延安黄土为研究对象,开展不同孔隙率的黄土直剪试验研究,探讨了孔隙率对粘聚力与内摩擦角的定量变化关系;并以此为基础,构建了基于孔隙率的延安黄土抗剪强度模型,并对其进行了验证。研究结果表明:(1)延安黄土粘聚力与孔隙率间呈幂函数变化关系;(2)延安不同孔隙率黄土内摩擦角取值呈现出两个区间,当孔隙率n≥0.4时,其内摩擦角在25±2.5°的范围内变动,而当孔隙率n<0.4时,其内摩擦角在29.5±2°的范围内变动;(3)通过分析得到了基于孔隙率的延安黄土抗剪强度模型,且该模型得到的黄土抗剪强度理论值与实测值间的误差较小,相对误差均在7%以内,具有较高的精确度。研究成果不仅能为延安黄土抗剪强度研究等提供技术支持,而且还能为该地区的工程建设等方面提供理论参考。     

秦岭—淮河南北供暖格局变化及其影响因素

基于秦岭—淮河南北及其周边196个气象站点观测资料,构建实际和动态供暖指数,对中国南北过渡带供暖格局变化进行分析,并探讨冬季北极涛动（AO）异常与供暖效率的响应关系。结果表明：① 固定供暖策略下,1960-2016年秦岭—淮河南北实际供暖能耗偏高,呈现“南多北少,西低东高”的变化特征,且低纬度地区供暖需求下降信号早于高纬度;② 对比区域变暖前后,秦岭—淮河南北冬季供暖能耗1960-1990年和1990-2016年两阶段空间特征,发现“整体南高北低,北部东高西低”的格局并未发生变化,供暖南北波动界线依然维持在秦岭山脉—淮河平原中部;③ AO强弱波动与区域冬季供暖能耗具有明显的时空响应关系,是影响中国南北过渡带供暖格局变化的重要因素。当AO负相位时,除四川盆地和巫山山区之外,秦岭—淮河南北其他区域实际供暖能耗明显下降,特别是淮河平原和长江下游的过渡地带响应尤为明显,未来应该有针对性制定气候适应对策。     

Pricing Weather Derivatives Index based on Temperature: The Case of Bahir Dar,Ethiopia

In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.     

Current-induced scour beneath initially elevated subsea pipelines

When a subsea pipeline is laid on an uneven seabed, certain sections may have an initial elevation with respect to the far-field seabed, e_o, and thus potentially affecting the on-bottom stability of the pipeline. This paper focuses on quantifying the effects of the upstream dimensionless seabed shear stress, θ_∞, and Reynolds number, Re, on: (1) the maximum dimensionless seabed shear stress beneath the pipe, θ_max, to be compared to the critical shear stress in order to determine whether scour would occur and progress towards an equilibrium state; and, (2) the dimensionless equilibrium scour depth beneath the pipe, S_eq/D. Using a 2-D Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach along with the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model, a parametric study involving 243 computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations was conducted. The simulation results were used to develop a closed-form equation for the prediction of θ_max. Subsequently, experimental measurements of S_eq/D have been compiled from published literature, to develop a new closed-form equation for the prediction of S_eq/D with a high correlation to the experimental data. In summary, we present two closed-form equations for the prediction of θ_max and S_eq/D for pipelines with an initial e_o/D, which are applicable for both clear-water and live-bed conditions. The effects of θ_∞ and Re have been included, albeit Re having a small influence as compared to the other parameters.     

2004年初春武汉机场临近的两次强雷暴天气过程分析

使用常规地面和高空原始报文资料,采用最优插值法,对2004年4月29日出现在武汉天河机场临近的两次强雷暴天气过程进行了客观诊断分析。结果表明:两次强雷暴天气,前一次为典型的飑线天气过程,后一次为超级雷暴单体天气过程;高空槽、冷锋、中尺度低值系统是当天两次强雷暴天气的触发机制;低空深厚湿层(水汽丰富)、高低空存在急流强风带对当日飑线天气的形成和发展较为有利,强的不稳定层结、强的环境风垂直切变以及上层干、下层湿的湿度层结对当天超级雷暴单体的形成和发展十分有利。