Modeling erosion of sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic

Morphodynamic modeling is employed in the present work to predict the long-term evolution (over the next 100 years) of typical sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic. The studied objects are the coasts of Varandey (the Barents Sea), Baydaratskaya Bay and Harasavey (the Kara Sea). The model developed takes into account both the short-term processes (storm events) and long-term factors (for example, changes in sea level, inter-annual variations in gross sediment flux, lack or excess of sediment supply). Predicted and observed morphological changes in coastal profiles are shown to agree well for time scales ranging from weeks to decades. It is revealed that under given environmental conditions, the morphological evolution is strongly influenced by storm surges and associated wind-driven circulation. The water level gradient created by a surge generates a seaward flow at the bed. This outflow is shown to be an important destructive mechanism contributing to the erosion and recession of Arctic coasts. The rate of change is found to depend on both the exposure of the coast (relative to the direction of dominant winds) and its height above the sea. The open coast of Varandey is expected to retreat as much as 300–500 m over 100 years, while recession of the less exposed coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay would not exceed about 100 m/century. If long-term sediment losses are insignificant, the rate of erosion decays with time and the morphodynamic system may tend toward equilibrium. It is concluded that the expected relative sea-level rise (up to 1 m over the nearest 100 years) is non-crucial to the future coastal evolution if an erosion activity is already high enough.     

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.     

The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic

During the 1920s and 1930s, there was a dramatic warming of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, reduced sea ice conditions and enhanced Atlantic inflow in northern regions continued through to the 1950s and 1960s, with the timing of the decline to colder temperatures varying with location. Ecosystem changes associated with the warm period included a general northward movement of fish. Boreal species of fish such as cod, haddock and herring expanded farther north while colder-water species such as capelin and polar cod retreated northward. The maximum recorded movement involved cod, which spread approximately 1200 km northward along West Greenland. Migration patterns of “warmer water” species also changed with earlier arrivals and later departures. New spawning sites were observed farther north for several species or stocks while for others the relative contribution from northern spawning sites increased. Some southern species of fish that were unknown in northern areas prior to the warming event became occasional, and in some cases, frequent visitors. Higher recruitment and growth led to increased biomass of important commercial species such as cod and herring in many regions of the northern North Atlantic. Benthos associated with Atlantic waters spread northward off Western Svalbard and eastward into the eastern Barents Sea. Based on increased phytoplankton and zooplankton production in several areas, it is argued that bottom-up processes were the primary cause of these changes. The warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to constitute the most significant regime shift experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century.     

Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

Effects of a Short-term Environmental Change on a Brackish-water Polychaete Community

Abstract. Aquatina lake is a brackish basin, connected with the Adriatic Sea along the mast of Apulia (Italy), with a mean salinity of 26%. The abundance and biomass of fifteen polychaete species were recorded by monthly samples in a pilot area of the lake from February 1989 to February 1990. Naineris laevigata was dominant, both in number of individuals and biomass. During 1990, obstruction of freshwater inflow to the lake caused an increase in salinity up to 4O%, followed by some changes in the polychaete community. Noromasrus hiericeus became dominant, and the abundances of the other species decreased except for Naineris laevipru . Salinity assumed normal values after three months, but community responded slowly becauie the massive presence of N. latericeus inhibited the recovery of other species. An abiotic disturbance, followed by a biotic disturbance, altered the structure of the polychaete community.     

Seasonal Changes in Soluble Carbohydrates, Starch, and Energy Content in Mediterranean Seagrasses

Abstract. In all scagrass species investigated, rhizomes were the main storage organs for soluble carbohydrate reserves, and the highest levels were found in Cymodocea nodosa (U cria ) A scherson . Sucrose was the primary soluble carbohydrate identified in Posidonia oceanica (L.) D elile , and Zostera noltii H ornem . This disaccharide was dominant in Cymodocea nodosa roots, as well as in its rhizome in winter. Myo-inositol was the main cyclitol in Zostera noltii. In Cymodocea nodosa leaves 1-chiro-inositol was the main sugar component; it was also present to a lesser extent in the roots and rhizomes. The amounts of glucose and fructose were correlated with growth to a certain extent in all species. Higher amounts of starch were stored in the rhizomes of Posidonia oceanica and Zostera noltii. The energy content of Mediterranean scagrasses was significantly higher than in tropical species. No distinct seasonal trend in energy content could be observed.     

Seasonal Changes in Nitrogen, Free Amino Acids, and C/N Ratio in Mediterranean Seagrasses

Abstract. Seasonal changes in nitrogen, free amino acids, and carbon were investigated in the three Mediterranean seagrasses Posidonia oceanica, Cymodocea nodosa , and Zostera noltii. Leaves, rhizomes, roots, as well as dead plant material were analysed separately. Highest N-concentrations were obtained in the winter months, regardless of species or plant part. In contrast to the other two species, the N-content in Posidonia was higher in the rhizomes than in the leaves.
In the investigated species, marked differences in the free amino acid (FAA) composition were detected between species: Proline, lacking in Posidonia , was the main component in Cymodocea. In Posidonia , FAA decreased from 320umol g^-1 (dry wt) in leaf sheaths to 1.5 umol g^-1 (dry wt) in the leaf tips. The function of proline as a possible storage and/or stress metabolite is discussed.
High C/N values in dead P. oceanica and C. nodosa rhizomes as well as in P. oceanica wrack seem to be related to considerable resistance to decomposition. Low C/N ratios did not increase in detached C. nodosa and Z. noltii leaves, which began to decompose shortly after detachment from the plants.     

Natural expansion and experimental manipulation of seagrass (Zostera spp.) abundance and the response of infaunal invertebrates

A study of an expanding seagrass bed on the south-west coast of British Columbia, Canada involved documentation and explanation of the pattern of expansion of the vegetation as well as documentation and experimental investigation of the accompanying changes in the distribution of infaunal invertebrates. Expansion followed a major environmental change, improved water clarity initiated in 1969 when a causeway blocked access to the site for silty Fraser River water. The original eelgrass (Zostera marina) bed expanded landward over 30 m year⁻¹, probably causing more and more water to be retained in the bed at low tide and thus improving its own habitat. More rapid expansion occurred from 1979–1983 after Z.japonica colonized at the landward edge of the eelgrass bed and in a separate intertidal area. Expansion ceased around 1983 coincident with, but probably independent of, further construction.Burrowing shrimp (Callianassa californiensis) decreased in abundance between 1977 and 1984 in areas where the two seagrasses colonized. Short-term experiment over one summer and fall showed that removal of all shoots allowed adult shrimp and tube worms to colonize the sediment while addition of shoots of Z. japonica by transplanting caused temporary decreases in shrimp abundance. After a few weeks an established shrimp population destroyed the transplants. Among reasonable alternate hypotheses for the decline in Callianassa, the effect of sediment texture can be eliminated, but either direct negative effects of seagrass, i.e. inhibition of the burrowing of adult shrimp or of settlement of juveniles, or indirect effects, i.e. the harboring of more predators of shrimp in seagrass beds, deserve further study.