The effect of causal parameter bounds in PSHA‐based ground motion selection

In this paper the effect of causal parameter bounds (e.g. magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, and site condition) on ground motion selection, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) results, is investigated. Despite the prevalent application of causal parameter bounds in ground motion selection, present literature on the topic is cast in the context of a scenario earthquake of interest, and thus specific bounds for use in ground motion selection based on PSHA, and the implications of such bounds, is yet to be examined. Thirty‐six PSHA cases, which cover a wide range of causal rupture deaggregation distributions and site conditions, are considered to empirically investigate the effects of various causal parameter bounds on the characteristics of selected ground motions based on the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach. It is demonstrated that the application of relatively ‘wide’ bounds on causal parameters effectively removes ground motions with drastically different characteristics with respect to the target seismic hazard and results in an improved representation of the target causal parameters. In contrast, the use of excessively ‘narrow’ bounds can lead to ground motion ensembles with a poor representation of the target intensity measure distributions, typically as a result of an insufficient number of prospective ground motions. Quantitative criteria for specifying bounds for general PSHA cases are provided, which are expected to be sufficient in the majority of problems encountered in ground motion selection for seismic demand analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全新世中期青海海东地区聚落选址与环境解读

依托GIS技术,对全新世中期海东地区河湟谷地的聚落选址特征进行分析,指出马家窑文化、齐家文化、卡约-唐汪文化与辛店文化时期的聚落均对海拔2000~2200 m的高程区间具有强烈的选择倾向,这一首选海拔区间标识了全新世中期河湟谷地水热条件优良的森林与草原植被过渡地带。齐家文化之后的卡约-唐汪文化与辛店文化以2000~2200 m海拔高程区间为核心,分别向较高海拔山区与较低海拔河谷地带扩展生存空间,且聚落分布重心发生迁移,聚落聚集程度降低。4000 aBP前后气候开始转为干冷,导致高海拔山区森林退化与河谷水热条件变化,是齐家文化以后的人类文明对环境的适应方式发生变化的主要原因。     

改进微粒群算法在梯级电站长期优化调度中的应用

微粒群算法是一种简洁高效的智能优化算法，但基本算法容易陷入局部最优，并且搜索精度不高。本文在基本算法的基础上引入锦标赛选择机制和自适应惯性权重因子，提出了改进微粒群算法（MPSO）。将MPSO算法应用到黄河上游梯级电站的长期调度中，并与动态规划法和基本算法的调度结果相比较。实例表明了MPSO算法的有效性和可靠性，从而为梯级电站水库（群）长期优化调度提供了一种新的、有效的优化方法。     

三峡水库引水工程(方案)秦巴段地壳稳定性评价研究

三峡水库引水工程（方案）是南水北调的重要补充工程,具有重要的战略意义和经济意义。本文在分析现今构造应力场、地壳结构、构造格架、活动断裂、地震活动、工程地质岩组等影响地壳稳定性主要因素的基础上,利用模糊数学综合评价模型分构造稳定性和岩土体稳定性两个层次评价工程场地的稳定性。评价结果表明,三峡引水工程场地地壳稳定性较高,适合兴建大型引水工程。同时,运用地壳稳定性评价结果对三条规划线路进行了优化比选,结果表明以中线为最好。     

On the advantage of sharing a holdfast: effects of density and occurrence of kin aggregation in the kelp Lessonia berteroana

We investigated the density‐dependent and genetic relatedness that regulate the occurrence of inter‐individual (genet) fusion forming plurigenotypic organisms in the brown alga Lessonia berteroana. Recruitment generally occurs at high densities in the inter‐tidal, allowing contact of neighbouring holdfasts as they grow and expand on the substrate. Algal density, by contrast, is regulated by the effects of herbivory and wave impact, which often lead to low holdfast density. Herein, we investigated whether the occurrence of plurigenotypic organisms and their genotypic composition (number of genotypes per plurigenotypic organism) are density dependent and affected by kin selection in the inter‐tidal kelp L. berteroana. Four microsatellite loci were used to analyse DNA from 260 samples obtained from shared and non‐shared holdfasts, at two sites with high and two site with low holdfast density. Analyses showed that fusions forming plurigenotypic organisms are extremely common. Interestingly, the frequency of fusions was higher in low‐density sites, in which 100% of the plants had at least two genotypes and the average was 3.5. In high‐density sites, 62% of plants were plurigenotypic, with an average of 2.8 genotypes per plant. Additionally, we found that genotypes that shared a holdfast had a significantly higher genetic relatedness than the average in the population, compatible with a kin structure. Density dependence and kin structure suggest that the occurrence of plurigenotypic organisms is linked to environmental quality, and that kin or multilevel selection may be favouring the fusion of genetically related genets.     

Selection for growth performance of tank-reared Pacific white shrimp, Litopenaeus vannamei

Seven growth-related traits were measured to assess the selection response and genetic parameters of the growth of Pacific white shrimp, Litopenaeus vannamei, which had been domesticated in tanks for more than four generations. Phenotypic and genetic parameters were evaluated and fitted to an animal model. Realized response was measured from the difference between the mean growth rates of selected and control families. Realized heritability was determined from the ratio of the selection responses and selection differentials. The animal model heritability estimate over generations was 0.44±0.09 for body weight (BW), and ranged from 0.21±0.08 to 0.37±0.06 for size traits. Genetic correlations of phenotypic traits were more variable (0.51–0.97), although correlations among various traits were high (>0.83). Across generations, BW and size traits increased, while selection response and heritability gradually decreased. Selection responses were 12.28%-23.35% for harvest weight and 3.58%–13.53% for size traits. Heritability estimates ranged from 0.34±0.09 to 0.48±0.15 for harvest weight and 0.17±0.01–0.38±0.11 for size traits. All phenotypic and genetic parameters differed between various treatments. To conclude, the results demonstrated a potential for mass selection of growth traits in L. vannamei. A breeding scheme could use this information to integrate the effectiveness constituent traits into an index to achieve genetic progress.     

Could Cohesion Policy push EU climate efforts?

The main purpose of this article is to evaluate the extent to which the Cohesion Policy of the EU contributes to its climate change mitigation effort. While climate change mitigation and the EU Cohesion Policy have been both thoroughly studied theoretically, the novelty of the present article lies in an analysis of their mutual relationship. Also, a unique feature of this research is an analysis of the contribution of the Cohesion Policy to climate change mitigation over a period of 20 years, including a comparison of the three last programming periods (2000–2006, 2007–2013 and 2014–2020). The results of this research suggest that, while the beginning of the new millennium saw the Cohesion Policy neglecting the issue of climate change mitigation, the current programming period (2014–2020) placed it among its key priorities. This conclusion is supported by a comprehensive set of data on five selected indicators. This article also displays the results against the perspective of the overall climate change mitigation objectives of the EU.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The present article shows how a policy, which used to be considered rather distant from climate change, progressively adopted climate change mitigation as one of its principal objectives. As such, it provides a practical guidance on the integration of climate change mitigation in other policy areas, which may be applied not only in a supranational organisation but also on a national, regional or local level.     

基于无人机影像和面向对象随机森林算法的岩溶湿地植被识别方法研究

目前对岩溶湿地的重视程度远低于其他湿地类型,缺乏利用遥感技术进行岩溶湿地植被高精度识别的研究,但岩溶湿地同其他湿地类型一样,湿地面积退化严重,亟待需要解决。因此,本文选取受人类活动影响较大、湿地退化较为严重的广西桂林会仙喀斯特国家湿地公园的部分核心区域作为研究区,以DJI大疆御Mavic Pro无人机航摄影像为数据源,利用泛化能力强、分类精度高的面向对象随机森林算法实现了会仙岩溶湿地植被的高精度分类,探究无人机可见光影像和面向对象随机森林算法在岩溶湿地植被识别中的适用性,为无人机遥感技术应用于岩溶湿地的研究和保护提供技术参考。首先,在eCognition Developer9.0中利用多尺度迭代分割算法对影像图层进行分割;然后,基于以往在进行面向对象分类研究的经验来指导我们进行特征选择,充分考虑了影像的光谱和纹理特征、植被指数、无人机遥感数据派生的研究区数字地表模型（DSM）和几何特征;最后,在RStudio中实现了随机森林算法参数的调优、模型的构建以及分类。结果显示,面向对象随机森林算法对会仙湿地植被具有较高的识别能力,在95%置信区间内总体精度为86.75%,Kappa系数为0.83。在单一典型岩溶湿地植被识别精度中,狗牙根-白茅-水龙植被群丛的用户精度在90%以上,生产者精度高于80%,竹子-马甲子-桂花生产者精度高于80%,但是用户精度较低,仅为70.59%。     

江蓠属藻胆蛋白的研究──Ⅰ 诱变、突变体筛选及藻胆蛋白的光谱特性

用N-甲基-N′-硝基-N-亚硝基胍（MNNG）对龙须菜配子体进行诱变处理，并筛选出色素突变体。又以真江蓠、细基江篱繁枝变型、龙须菜及其突变体为材料进行了藻胞蛋白的提取、纯化及藻胆蛋白光谱特性的研究。结果表明，江蓠属三个物种藻胆蛋白的含量有明显差异，龙须菜的野生型藻体与突变体之间藻胆蛋白含量的差异比不同物种之间的差异更为显著。江蓠属三个物种中藻胆蛋白的吸收光谱中以藻红蛋白（PE）变化最大：细基江蓠繁枝变型PE的吸收光谱有二峰一肩，属Ⅰ型R-PE，而真江蓠和龙须菜的PE的吸收光谱有三个峰，属Ⅱ型R－PE：龙须菜的不同突变型藻体的吸收光谱也有Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型R－PE之分。不同物种藻蓝蛋白也有R－PC和C－PC的差异，异藻蓝蛋白的吸收光谱及三种藻胆蛋白的荧光发射光谱也略有变化。并以光合进化的观点分析了本文的实验结果。     

粗集属性划分的集成遥感分类

提出了一种基于粗集属性划分的遥感分类新方法, 构造了基于粗集的集成遥感分类器。该分类器利用粗集理论将输入的属性集合划分为多个约减, 利用这些约减构造多个训练子集。每个训练子集训练神经网分类器, 在决策时将多个单个分类器的结果进行投票选举。这种方法即减少了单个分类器的输入属性个数, 又避免了由于属性选取造成单一分类器在某些分类上的错误偏见。该分类器与神经网分类器方法, 以及属性选取与神经网结合方法进行了比较。结果表明RSEC无论在分类精度上, 还是在不同样本个数条件下的精度稳定程度上均有较好表现。