反应谱控制选波的地震动时频非平稳特性差异性分析

时程分析法中地震波的选取关乎结构抗震分析结果是否准确,基于规范反应谱进行选波分析,研究不同选波控制指标下所选出的地震波在时域、频域等方面的特性及误差大小,并进行工程验证。结果表明:采用拟合反应谱选波方法所选的地震动在时、频域上特性差异较大,是导致时程分析法中结构响应差异性较大的主要原因,且选用更为严格的控制指标并不能有效降低所选出地震动时频非平稳之间的差异性。     

Periodicity in quasar redshifts or selection effects?

Peaks at high redshifts in individual samples of quasars can be explained as due to selection effects. It is concluded that peaks in quasar redshift distribution do not obey any generalformula that can constitute a periodicity, even though individual samples may favour some redshifts of smaller values, viz. z < 1.     

近地小行星探测目标选择

从数以万计的近地小行星(NEAs)中选择探测目标,是一项非常重要的工作.选择小行星时需要考虑的主要问题是:NEAs的轨道参数、自旋周期、大小、科学价值、表面特征以及到达NEAs的时间.本文采用排除法从众多近地小行星中确定候选者,并根据科学目标的要求确定最终探测目标.     

A framework for the evaluation of ground motion selection and modification procedures

This study develops a framework to evaluate ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) procedures. The context is probabilistic seismic demand analysis, where response history analyses of a given structure, using ground motions determined by a GMSM procedure, are performed in order to estimate the seismic demand hazard curve (SDHC) for the structure at a given site. Currently, a GMSM procedure is evaluated in this context by comparing several resulting estimates of the SDHC, each derived from a different definition of the conditioning intensity measure (IM). Using a simple case study, we demonstrate that conclusions from such an approach are not always definitive; therefore, an alternative approach is desirable. In the alternative proposed herein, all estimates of the SDHC from GMSM procedures are compared against a benchmark SDHC, under a common set of ground motion information. This benchmark SDHC is determined by incorporating a prediction model for the seismic demand into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis calculations. To develop an understanding of why one GMSM procedure may provide more accurate estimates of the SDHC than another procedure, we identify the role of ‘IM sufficiency’ in the relationship between (i) bias in the SDHC estimate and (ii) ‘hazard consistency’ of the corresponding ground motions obtained from a GMSM procedure. Finally, we provide examples of how misleading conclusions may potentially be obtained from erroneous implementations of the proposed framework. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

导航卫星非差精密定轨测站选取策略分析

推导了测站分布对定轨精度影响的公式,提出一种兼顾测站数量、观测数据质量以及测站地理分布的测站选取策略。利用IGS和iGMAS全球观测网数据,设计了3种不同的测站分布方案,进行GPS精密定轨实验。结果表明,使用30个全球均匀分布的测站,GPS三维定轨精度能达到6.0 cm左右|使用40个全球均匀分布的测站,GPS三维定轨精度能达到3.5 cm的水平|使用50个全球均匀分布的测站,GPS三维定轨精度能达到2.8 cm以内|超过50个的测站对GPS定轨精度提高基本上没有贡献。     

Evaluation of a recently proposed record selection and scaling procedure for low‐rise to mid‐rise reinforced concrete buildings and its use for probabilistic risk assessment studies

This paper evaluates a recent record selection and scaling procedure of the authors that can determine the probabilistic structural response of buildings behaving either in the elastic or post‐elastic range. This feature marks a significant strength on the procedure as the probabilistic structural response distribution conveys important information on probability‐based damage assessment. The paper presents case studies that show the utilization of the proposed record selection and scaling procedure as a tool for the estimation of damage states and derivation of site‐specific and region‐specific fragility functions. The method can be used to describe exceedance probabilities of damage limits under a certain target hazard level with known annual exceedance rate (via probabilistic seismic hazard assessment). Thus, the resulting fragility models can relate the seismicity of the region (or a site) with the resulting building performance in a more accurate manner. Under this context, this simple and computationally efficient record selection and scaling procedure can be benefitted significantly by probability‐based risk assessment methods that have started to be considered as indispensable for developing robust earthquake loss models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Copula models for frequency analysis what can be learned from a Bayesian perspective?

Large spring floods in the Québec region exhibit correlated peakflow, duration and volume. Consequently, traditional univariate hydrological frequency analyses must be complemented by multivariate probabilistic assessment to provide a meaningful design flood level as requested in hydrological engineering (based on return period evaluation of a single quantity of interest). In this paper we study 47 years of a peak/volume dataset for the Romaine River with a parametric copula model. The margins are modeled with a normal or gamma distribution and the dependence is depicted through a parametric family of copulas (Arch 12 or Arch 14). Parameter joint inference and model selection are performed under the Bayesian paradigm. This approach enlightens specific features of interest for hydrological engineering: (i) cross correlation between margin parameters are stronger than expected , (ii) marginal distributions cannot be forgotten in the model selection process and (iii) special attention must be addressed to model validation as far as extreme values are of concern.     

2010年上海世博会选址研究

根据2010年上海世博会对快捷高效的综合交通运输体系、优美的亲水环境、有效的危机管理系统、高标准的防灾体系等运营环境的基本要求,结合该市中心城区高昂的土地置换成本、高强度的交通流量压力、较弱的承灾能力等客观实际条件,文章提出了将世博会选址于上海临港新城的建议,认为这将有利于发挥临港新城的综合交通网络优势,彰显国际性港口城市的会展功能,形成城市化发展的多重社会经济效应,推动上海加快实施海洋开发战略等。     

A System for Fast Cartographic Sounding Selection

Soundings on nautical charts provide information about the shape of the ocean bottom between chart depth curves. A single chart may have thousands of soundings posted on it. This article describes a system for automatic cartographic sounding selection. In this system, a new algorithm for automated selecting soundings is developed. The algorithm is employed in such a way that it can guarantee (a) fast and accurate selecting sounding, (b) processing the circular depth curves, (c) solving the overplotting problems between depth curves and soundings, and (d) keeping selected soundings “prettier.” The system was intensively tested using real data sets, and its superiority has been revealed by the testing results.     

Population dynamics of cryptogenic calcarean sponges (Porifera,Calcarea) in Southeastern Brazil

The calcarean sponge Paraleucilla magna is classified as being an invasive species on the Mediterranean Sea, where it causes economic damages to mollusc farms. On the Brazilian coast, this species is considered to be cryptogenic, and information on its ecology is scarce. The same is true for Sycettusa hastifera, another calcarean sponge with a worldwide distribution. Data on the ecology of these species could help in elucidating their potential to become a threat if they are found to be exotic species in Brazil. In the present work, we studied habitat selection, growth and mortality of early juveniles of P. magna and habitat selection of S. hastifera in a Marine Reserve from Southeastern Brazil, where these species are abundant in the benthic community. Granite plates were used for habitat selection analysis, varying in substrate inclination (vertical and horizontal) and exposure to light and hydrodynamism (exposed and sheltered). To analyse the growth and mortality rates, sponges were mapped and then measured once a week for 10 weeks. If a monitored sponge was not found in the following week, it was considered to be dead. Our results showed that, although P. magna and S. hastifera are capable of inhabiting substrates exposed to different environmental conditions, they showed habitat preferences. Growth of the juveniles of P. magna seemed not to have damaged any neighbouring invertebrates. The mortality of juveniles of this species was higher during the first 2 weeks of life but its causes could not be elucidated.