How to achieve the 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets for China's industrial sector: Retrospective decomposition and prospective trajectories

The Chinese government actively follows the low-carbon development pattern and has set the definite targets of reducing carbon emissions by 2030. The industrial sector plays a significant role in China's economic growth and CO₂ emissions. This is the first study to present a specific investigation on the retrospective decomposition (1993–2014) and prospective trajectories (2015–2035) of China's industrial CO₂ emission intensity (ICEI) and industrial CO₂ emissions (ICE), aiming at China Industrial Green Development Plan 2016–2020 targets and China's 2030 CO₂ emission-reduction targets. We introduce process carbon intensity, investment and R&D factors into the decomposition model and make a combination of dynamic Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis to identify whether and how the targets would be realized from a sector-specific perspective. The results indicate that investment intensity is the primary driver for the increase in ICEI, while R&D intensity and energy intensity are the leading contributors to the reduction in ICEI. Under existing policies, it is very possible for the industrial sector to achieve the 2020 and 2030 intensity-reduction targets. However, the realization of 2030 emission-peak target has some uncertainties and needs extra efforts in efficiency improvement and structural adjustment. All the five scenarios would achieve the 2020 and 2030 intensity-reduction targets, except Scenario N4 for China Industrial Green Development Plan 2016–2020 target. Nonetheless, only three scenarios would realize the 2030 emission-peak target. With strong efficiency improvement and structural adjustment, ICE would hit the peak in 2025. In contrast, with high/low efficiency improvement and weak structural adjustment, ICE would fail to reach the peak before 2035. Both ICEI and ICE have substantial mitigation potentials with the enhancement of efficiency improvement and structural adjustment. Finally, we suggest that the Chinese government should raise the baseline requirements of efficiency improvement and structural adjustment for the industrial sector to achieve China’s 2030 targets.     

福建春季西南急流暖湿强迫背景下的强对流天气流型配置及环境条件分析

根据2002—2013年福建26次春季强对流天气过程中12例由西南急流暖湿强迫产生的强对流天气的高低空环流配置,利用常规高空、地面观测资料以及NCEP再分析资料,运用中尺度对流天气的天气图分析技术建立福建春季西南风低空急流暖湿强迫背景下的强对流天气流型的识别方法,并统计静力稳定度、水汽、抬升和垂直风切变条件及相应物理量要素,初步揭示了福建省春季西南急流暖湿强迫背景下的强对流天气过程的特征和规律。此类强对流天气是由对流层中、高层干冷空气位于低层强烈发展的暖湿平流之上形成显著条件不稳定层结,逆温、干暖盖、中低层有利的水汽条件,上干下湿的温湿廓线以及低空辐合、高空辐散为强对流天气的发生提供了有利的环境条件,强对流天气系统由地面的锋面、辐合线、热低压、925 hPa辐合线以及西南急流脉动等中尺度天气系统触发,对流生成后在西南风急流引导下移入有利于对流发展的不稳定区域使得对流持续发展,强垂直风切变配合较大的对流有效位能有利于对流风暴持续发展。     

Could baseline establishment be counterproductive for emissions reduction? Insights from Vietnam’s building sector

This article provides insights into the role of institutions involved in climate governance working towards a future low-carbon society at the national level, within the global climate change governance architecture. Specifically, it contributes to understanding the fragmented governance of energy efficiency policy in developing countries by focussing on Vietnam’s building sector, identifying key institutions related to underlying discourses, national and international power relations, resource distribution and coalitions. It uses the case of baseline setting in developing Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to illustrate institutional dynamics, nationally and transnationally, as well as to question whether demands for baseline setting achieve the ideal trade-off between actual GHG emissions reduction and institutionalized demands for accountability. The analysis reveals that, in addition to domestic efforts and challenges, the international agenda greatly influences the energy efficiency policy arena. The article presents lessons to be learnt about policy processes from the specific Vietnamese case, reflecting on the role of international actors and discourses in it. Finally, it argues for the abolition of baselines in favour of adequate monitoring and evaluation, from the perspective that requirement for deviation from fictitious baselines is unproductive and only serves an international techno-managerial discourse.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Baseline establishment is commonly considered an initial step in developing NAMAs, in order to facilitate the demonstration of a deviation from such baselines. The requirement to produce baselines is traditionally not questioned by policy practitioners. Thus, significant development resources are allocated to the establishment of baselines and the bridging of data gaps, often without consideration as to whether baselines are a necessary instrument for NAMA implementation. We suggest omitting the lengthy and resource-consuming practice of establishing baselines and recommend proceeding forthwith to the planning and implementation of mitigation and energy efficiency policies. As conditions vary significantly in different contexts, it would be more appropriate to measure the initial situation, establishing the ‘base point’, and monitor development from that point. The present article might serve as motivation for policymakers to question traditional approaches to policy development and consider alternatives to maximize the cost efficacy of NAMA programmes and facilitate their implementation.     

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

     

丽江7.O级地震后的思考与启示

介绍了１９９６ 年２ 月３ 日丽江７０ 级地震前出现的异常项目和计算指标以及预报预测概况。总结了这次工作中的经验和教训。     

S变换在定点形变观测中的应用

应用S变换,对比分析湖州地震台秒采样定点形变观测到新疆皮山县6.5级地震的频谱动态演化特征,VP倾斜仪和JCZ地震计记录的地震波较为相似,不同的震相有不同的周期,有显著的震相特征,但SSQ倾斜仪不同震相的周期没有显著的差异性。     

滇西地震预报实验场场区水平形变分析

利用场区各种类型水平形变网数据，求得红河断裂中、北段的区域应力场基本特征是：（１）北区为张性左旋型，（２）中区为压性右旋型，（３）南区为张性右旋型。场区区域应力场基本以张性为主，中区的压性右旋型恰好反映转换区应力场的局部特征。北区主应变积累和速率比南区大，最大处在剑川，而高敏感区在后山定两岭。基于水平形变和应变分析，获得了场区现今主要活动构造参数。利用地震前兆形变信息和震后效应进行了地震震例分析。并对３～５年内的潜在震源区进行了预估。     

如何开展地震现场科普宣传工作初探

地震科普宣传工作多是在地震发生之前开展,主要偏重的是如何地震避险。地震灾害发生后对灾区民众如何有效地减轻地震灾害及合理地配合外来救援力量的科普宣传缺乏系统性。本文从地震现场科普宣传的形式、内容及如何更好地实现现场科普宣传三个方面对地震现场科普宣传工作进行分析,旨在为利用地震现场科普宣传维护震区的社会稳定、减轻灾害损失及顺利地开展地震现场救援提出建议。     

珠三角外向型制造业非正规部门的形成发展机制——以广州市狮岭镇皮具产业为例

作为世界城市化发展中的普遍现象,非正规部门的形成发展一直是研究重点。以广州狮岭皮具产业为例,以非正规工厂和临时工为对象,研究了外向型制造业中非正规部门的形成发展机制。研究认为：正规企业为满足产品生产和降低成本的需求而采取的生产分包模式是非正规部门形成的根本因素;正规企业劳动保障的缺失与工人对自由轻松的工作方式的追求促使工人转入非正规工厂和临时工市场,推动了非正规部门的发展;当地宽松的管制环境为非正规部门的存在提供了可能。全球金融危机在短期内对非正规部门的发展起到了催化作用。研究支持了新马克思主义理论,认为正规部门和非正规部门是相互联系的关系,是产业经济发展中有利的组成要素。非正规部门不是劳动者进入正规部门的“跳板”,而是他们逃避正规经济过度剥削的“避难所”。最后讨论了有关非正规部门和非正规劳动者的政策启示。     

沈阳市部门企业地理集聚与城市结构

基于产业空间聚集分布情况探寻城市结构特征,是当前大都市区实证研究中的聚焦点所在,但由于方法论的限制而无法真正揭示产业地理集聚之间的内在关联性。基于已有研究基础,试图通过完善潜力模型、设置距离参数、结合主成分分析法实现对产业地理集聚测度方法论的完善与发展,并选取极具代表性大都市区核心城市——沈阳市为样本单元,以2008年的经济普查部门企业数据开展实证检验。结果表明：沈阳市部门企业之间除了交通运输、仓储和邮政中心产业属于地方化经济外,其余的均为企业关联;水利、环境和公共设施管理业产业依附于制造业呈临街抑或隔街集聚,而与公共管理和组织产业之间同街道集聚;支配主角之间,存在中心CBD主宰制造业的布局,而制造业又在很大程度上影响着交通运输、仓储和邮政中心的布局;企业地理集聚形成的城市结构依然是一个明显的“单中心圈层”结构,没有表现出“去中心化”抑或多极化或分散化演变趋势。研究成果与现实情况基本吻合,侧面说明该模式对揭示城市产业地理集聚模式以及由此形成的城市结构特征具有一定的解释力。