德令哈地震台测震干扰频谱特征及背景分析

通过3个台站地脉动频谱特征的对比,发现德令哈地震台地脉动记录6.5-7.5 Hz频段存在明显的高频干扰.根据2008年1月至2010年10月以来该高频干扰的频谱演化规律,对其产生背景来源做初步分析,在一定程度上解释了德令哈地震台P波记录个数减少的原因.     

An Isotope Dilution ICP‐MS Method for the Determination of Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca Ratios in Calcium Carbonate

Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios in calcium carbonate are important components of many palaeoclimate studies. We present an isotope dilution method relying on a single mixed spike containing ²⁵Mg, ⁴³Ca and ⁸⁷Sr. Dozens of samples per day, as small as 10 μg of carbonate, could be dissolved, spiked and run in an ICP‐MS with a precision of 0.8% (2 RSD). Two instruments types, a sector field and a quadrupole ICP‐MS, were compared. The best long term precision found was 0.4% (2 RSD), although this increased by up to a factor of two when samples of very different Mg or Sr content were run together in the same sequence. Long term averages for the two instruments concurred. No matrix effects were detected for a range of Ca concentrations between 0.2 and 2 mmol l^‐1. Accuracy, tested by measuring synthetic standard solutions, was 0.8% with some systematic trends. We demonstrate the strength of this isotope dilution method for (a) obtaining accurate results for sample sets that present a broad Mg and Sr range and (b) testing solid carbonates as candidate reference materials for interlaboratory consistency. Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca results for reference materials were in good agreement with values from the literature.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987114000644

正1.Introduction This special issue of Geoscience Frontiers is a tribute volume honoring the life and career of Jacques Touret.A set of research papers has been assembled,which broadly reflect his research interests over his 50 plus year career.These papers focus on the role that fluids play during the formation and evolution of the Earth's crust.Below I provide a brief summary of the life of Jacques Touret,along with a select bibliography of his more important papers.This is then followed by a brief introduction to the papers assembled for this special issue.     

The influence of the Tula,Hidalgo complex on the air quality of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Using an air quality model, this study shows how emissions from the “Miguel Hidalgo” refinery of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the thermoelectric plant “Francisco Pérez Ríos” of the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE, Federal Electricity Commission) in Tula, Hidalgo influence the atmosphere of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The model couples meteorology and chemistry. The weather scenario encompasses the period from October 20-28, 2005. Two scenarios are compared: the first assumes a 40% reduction in emissions of NO_x, SO₂, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the Tula complex (reduction scenario), and the second considers the scenario without reduction (baseline scenario). The model is compared with measurements of the Red Automática de Monitoreo Atmosférico (Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network). We observe that under certain weather conditions, the energy sector of Tula, Hidalgo affects the air quality in the MCMA. The reduction scenario is effective in reducing SO₂ concentrations; however, despite a 40% decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors, their concentrations in the MCMA did not decrease.     

Potential impact of albedo incorporation in boreal forest sector climate change policy effectiveness

Forests have an important role to play in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration and wood supply. However, the lower albedo of mature forests compared to bare land implies that focusing only on GHG accounting may lead to biased estimates of forestry's total climatic impacts. An economic model with a high degree of detail of the Norwegian forestry and forest industries is used to simulate GHG fluxes and albedo impacts for the next decades. Albedo is incorporated in a carbon tax/subsidy scheme in the Norwegian forest sector using a partial, spatial equilibrium model. While a price of EU€100/tCO₂e that targets GHG fluxes only results in reduced harvests, the same price including albedo leads to harvest levels that are five times higher in the first five years, with 39% of the national productive forest land base being cleared. The results suggest that policies that only consider GHG fluxes and ignore changes in albedo will not lead to an optimal use of the forest sector for climate change mitigation.

Policy relevance

Bare land reflects a larger share of incoming solar energy than dense forest and thus has higher albedo. Earlier research has suggested that changes in albedo caused by management of boreal forest may be as important as carbon fluxes for the forest's overall global warming impacts. The presented analysis is the first attempt to link albedo to national-scale forest climate policies. A policy with subsidies to forest owners that generate carbon sequestration and taxes levied on carbon emissions leads to a reduced forest harvest. However, including albedo in the policy alongside carbon fluxes yields very different results, causing initial harvest levels to increase substantially. The inclusion of albedo impacts will make harvests more beneficial for climate change mitigation as compared to a carbon-only policy. Hence, it is likely that carbon policies that ignore albedo will not lead to optimal forest management for climate change mitigation.     

The death spiral of coal in the U.S.: will changes in U.S. Policy turn the tide?

ABSTRACT

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.

Key policy insights

• Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.

• Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.

• Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.

• Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.

• Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.

     

Climate policy and dynamic efficiency gains A case study on Norwegian CO2-taxes and technological innovation in the petroleum sector

Abstract

Against increasing scientific evidence of human-induced global warming, and prevailing uncertainties regarding the fate of the Kyoto Protocol, the use of environmental taxes has been gaining increasing popularity in the OECD region. Economists often conjecture that such instruments provide a continuous incentive for technological innovation, which is likely to be a key determinant for success or failure in climate policy, at least in the long turn. However, there is little empirical evidence available to justify claims of that kind. The objective of this paper is to provide such evidence, by assessing the impacts of Norwegian CO₂-taxes, the key instrument in Norway's climate policy, on technological innovation in upstream petroleum operations. The balance of evidence suggests that the introduction of CO₂-taxes has provided some incentive for innovation that has shifted petroleum operations in a less emission-intensive direction. That said, the pattern of technological change pertains mostly to incremental process innovations, cumulative improvements, and adaptations of technologies already available. These insights may assist policymakers when formulating policy strategies and selecting instruments for climate change mitigation.     

Analysing preferences towards economic incentives in combating climate change: a comparative analysis of US states

In contrast to the federal government, some US states have taken an aggressive approach to curbing climate change. They use a variety of policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gases. These instruments can be categorized into two broad categories: economic incentives and command-and-control regulation. While the use of economic incentives has, on average, increased, some states employ them more than others. This article compares the propensity of different US states to employ economic incentives in the area of climate change. For this purpose, it analyses and tests four models: (i) a needs/responsiveness model, (ii) an interest group influence model, (iii) an innovation-and-diffusion model, and (iv) a combined model. Interestingly, this article finds that economic incentives are pushed out of the political agenda when states are confronted with a more severe problem in terms of carbon emissions and dependence on conventional energy. This article also finds support for the traditional, antagonistic view of ‘industry versus environmentalists’: electric utility companies tend to oppose economic incentives, while environmentalists and renewable energy producers tend to support them.     

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

Abstract

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period.