1993年7—9月的全球地震动态

１９９３年第三季度，全球地震活动水平为中等偏高，明显高于上半年平均水平。日本北海道西南近海发生７．６级浅源地震，但不属于日本海沟地震。埃及西奈半岛发生５．７级地震，为今年亚欧带西段之最大地震。马里亚纳群岛发生８．１级中深震，使西北太平洋地区地震水平达到全球第一。兴都库什地区接连发生三次较大中深震，可能对我国西部地区地震活动有影响。墨西哥恰帕斯州近海发生７．３级地震，美洲带新的地震活动轮回正式开始。印度南部发生６．３级中强震，属于板内地震。     

泰国的地震活动及地震工作的现状

应泰国气象厅的邀请，固定地震局派遣了由郑斯华、叶洪组成的中国国家地震局专家组，于１９９４年８月１７日至９月４日访问考察了泰国。访问期间，泰国地震专家们向专家组介绍了泰国的地震活动性和地震工作现状；专家组访问了泰国Ｃｈｕｌａｌｏｎｇｋｏｒｎ大学的土木工程系，了解了泰国地震工程研究的情况。本文介绍了泰国的地震构造和地震活动性以及泰国的地震工作现状等。     

1994年全球地震活动综述

１９９４年全球地震活动属于高水平，有４次大深震和４次浅源大地震。全球全年共发生６级以上地震１３４次，超过１９９３年。全球地震活动中心仍在太平洋西北边缘地震带。１０月４日的千岛群岛地震是最大的浅源地震；６月９日的玻利维亚地震是最大的深源地震。１９９４年全球地震活动开始转折，揭开强烈活动期的序幕。各大地震带的Ａ（ｂ）值几乎按同一比例上升，显示全球地震整体性增强。全球地震Ａ（ｂ）值在６月和１０月有两次高     

月球节点和太阳黑子活动与马边地区地震活动关系探讨

本文对月球每隔18．6年循环达其运行轨道最北节点N周期位置，和太阳黑子活动周期位相与马边－雷波－屏山区域地震活动的关系进行研究分析，发现，本区发生M≥3．6，级地震的“月－地”关系背景年，以及在“月－地”关系北景年对应的太阳黑子活动周期位相的特定条件下，存在因受特大黑子活动事件，引起太阳磁场极性变化的半周期和全周期为时间尺度的“日－月－地”高相关年的转折变异，激发本区破坏性地震或震群发生的时间规律，并用于对本区未来M≥5级地震活动的中期，短期预报。     

Rupture zones in the area of the 17.08.99 Izmit (NW Turkey) large earthquake (Mw 7.4) and stress changes caused by its generation

The M_w 7.4 Izmit earthquake of 17 August 1999 struck a part ofthe North Anatolian fault in the area of Izmit Bay (NW Turkey). Historicalinformation shows that the fault which moved during the generation of thisearthquake consists of two fault segments moved during the generation oflarge (M 7) earthquakes in 1719 and 1754, respectively. Since then onlythe central part (between Izmit and Lake Sapanca) of this fault ruptured bythe generation of a smaller shock (M = 6.6) in 1878.The spatial stress variations based on the calculation of changes in theCoulomb Failure Function (CFF) associated with this earthquake aresupported by the distribution of strong aftershock foci. Large positive valuesof CFF to the east and west of the mainshock epicenter are inagreement with the notion that secondary faults were triggered there by thegeneration of the main event. Large positive values of CFF are alsoobserved in the adjacent western fault segment where the 1766 event wasgenerated, evidencing the occurrence of the next strong earthquake in thissegment.     

漫湾水库蓄水前后库区地震活动性与构造应力场分析

对漫湾水库蓄水诱发地震作了分析，结果表明，蓄水后库区小震频次明显增加，近距离地震明显增多，在蓄水首次达到高水位和由高水位突降至低水位时，诱发了最强地震。表明蓄水对库区构造应力场产生了影响，使得局部应力场较区域构造应力场作用方向出现明显偏转，作用方式发生改变，呈现较大的垂直作用效应，节面错动出现较大正倾滑动分量。     

利用哈佛CMT目录研究全球Ⅰ级构造系统的地震活动

地震是描述地壳现今构造带和应力场的最佳信息源,包含了全面而又丰富的动力学内涵。根据全球地震的分布及其运动学、动力学特征,全球最活动的构造被划分为环太平洋构造系、大洋中脊构造系和大陆构造系等 3个全球Ⅰ级构造系统。文中应用包含多种参数的哈佛CMT地震目录,研究了全球及其 3个Ⅰ级构造系统的地震震源破裂类型、地震活动特征、震源深度分布特征等,讨论了三大构造系在这些方面存在的差别,进而说明了各个构造系在构造环境和动力作用方面的差别     

Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

Locally triggered seismicity in the central Swiss Alps following the large rainfall event of August 2005

In 2005 August, an unusual series of 47 earthquakes occurred over a 12-hr period in central Switzerland. The earthquakes occurred at the end of 3-d period of intensive rainfall, with over 300 mm of precipitation. The highest seismicity occurred as two distinct clusters in the region of Muotatal and Riemenstalden, Switzerland, a well-known Karst area that received a particularly large amount of rainfall. The large increase in seismicity, compared to the background, and the short time delay between the onset of the intense rainfall and the seismicity strongly suggest that earthquakes were triggered by rainfall. In our preferred model, an increase in fluid pressure at the surface due to a large amount of rain leads to a local increase in pore fluid pressure at depth. The increase in pore fluid pressure will reduce the shear strength of a porous medium by counteracting normal stress and, at the end, provoke failure. The series of triggered earthquakes in central Switzerland occurred in regions that have been seismically active in the past, showing similar hypocentre locations and magnitudes. This suggests that these earthquakes occurred on existing faults that were critically stressed. We modelled the intense rainfall as a step increase in fluid pressure at the surface that migrates to greater depths following the solution of the one-dimensional diffusion equation in a homogeneous half space. This allowed us to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity by plotting triggered seismicity in a time–depth plot. We found values of hydraulic diffusivity in the range from 0.01 to 0.5 m² s⁻¹ for our study area. These values are in good agreement with previous studies on earthquakes that were triggered by fluids, supporting the idea that the observed earthquake series was triggered by the large amount of rainfall.