Seismic regime of the west Bohemian earthquake swarm region: Preliminary results

Summary The western part of the Bohemian Massif located between two tectonic units, the Moldanubian and the Saxo-Thuringian, is characterized by the re-occurrence of earthquake swarms. The focal region for these swarms includes the territory of West Bohemia and the adjacent territory of SE Saxony and NE Bavaria. During the most recent swarm in December 1985 – January 1986, more than 8000 small earthquakes were recorded; the two largest earthquakes with local magnitudes (M_L) of 4·6 and 4·1. This paper presents a summary of the seismic energy release in space and time for the western part of the Bohemian Massif, based on seismic observations of permanent seismic stations established in West Bohemia since 1986. It was found out that microearthquake activity, mostly of a swarm-like character, persisted between two macroseismically observed swarms. The foci of the microearthquakes predominantly cluster in six main epicentral zones, four of which are located in West Bohemia or in its immediate vicinity in Saxony. The remaining two are in Saxony and in Bavaria. The four epicentral zones in West Bohemia were studied in detail. It was found that the individual zones differ in size, in depth of hypocentres, in geometry, as well as in temporal activity. Moreover, it was found that the seismicity in the most active epicentral zone is closely related to the system of principal tectonic faults referred to as the Kruné Hory fault and the Mariánské Lázn fault.     

Seismic history and consistent seismicity: Evidence from southern Italy

In this paper a method is proposed to evaluate the seismicity level of an area in a given historical period, based on records of seismic events, source characteristics and intensity attenuation with distance. Also considered is the seismic activity recorded in southern Italy during the 10th and 11th centuries, seismic records being obtained from all available sources. To determine the level of seismicity, a key role is played by source characteristics, i.e. recording modalities and activity periods of recording centers. In addition, models of intensity attenuation with distance allow the assessment of the size of the area under investigation. This paper identifies the areas, in the 10th and 11th centuries, where major earthquakes (M 6.5) did not occur during periods of silence of sources, as well as those where such events cannot be excluded. For each area, different levels of probability were determined by applying the Cox linear logistic model to historical seismic data. The completeness analysis, in terms of area and time-span coverage, is a valuable tool to assess seismicity in seismogenetic areas. The reproducibility of the model for lower magnitude earthquakes (M < 6.5) is reliable.     

1998年1～3月的全球地震动态

１９９８年第一季度,全球地震活动仍为高水平。南极洲附近巴勒尼群岛地区发生８级地震。伊朗东南部克尔曼省发生强烈地震。全球海岭地震带发生５次地震。全球地震轮回已进入新阶段。     

地下流体异常性质定量判别方法探索与地震预报

采用异常频次累加法和异常频次变化速率法研究了中强地震前后一定范围内地下流体群体异常随时间的演化特征．结果表明：地震前后地下流体异常频次累加曲线和变化速率曲线变化特征表现为“平稳（零值波动）—加速（连续正值）—恢复（连续负值）”３个阶段;地震与异常的关系表现为“加速（连续正值）—地震”的形式．利用该方法可以对地下流体异常性质（即非震异常、震前异常和震后异常）进行一定程度的定量判别．     

Determination of depths to centroids of three-dimensional sources of potential-field anomalies with examples from environmental and geologic applications

A method is developed for determining the depth to the centroid (the geometric center) of ‘semi-compact' sources. The method, called the anomaly attenuation rate (AAR) method, involves computing radial averages of AARs with increasing distances from a range of assumed source centers. For well-isolated magnetic anomalies from ‘semi-compact' sources, the theoretical AARs range from 2 (close to the sources) to 3 (in the far-field region); the corresponding theoretical range of AARs for gravity anomalies is 1 to 2. When the estimated source centroid is incorrect, the AARs either exceed or fall short of the theoretical values. The levelling-off of the far-field AARs near their theoretical maximum values indicates the upper (deeper) bound of the centroid location. Similarly, near-field AARs lower than the theoretical minimum indicate the lower (shallower) bound of the centroid location. It is not always possible to determine usable upper and lower bounds of the centroids because the method depends on characteristics of sources/anomalies and the noise level of the data. For the environmental magnetic examples considered in this study, the determined deeper bounds were within 4% of the true centroid-to-observation distance. For the case of the gravity anomaly from the Bloomfield Pluton, Missouri, USA, determination of only the shallower bound of the centroid location (7 km) was possible. This estimate agrees closely with the centroid of a previously determined three-dimensional model of the Bloomfield Pluton. For satellite magnetic anomalies, the method is appropriate only for high-amplitude, near-circular anomalies due to the inherent low signal-to-noise ratio of satellite magnetic anomalies. Model studies indicate that the AAR method is able to place depths within ±20–30 km of actual center locations from a 400-km observation altitude. Thus, the method may be able to discriminate between upper crustal, lower crustal, and mantle magnetic sources. The results from the prominent Kentucky anomaly are relatively well-resolved (centroid depth 30 km below the Earth's surface). For the Kiruna Magsat anomaly, the deleterious effects from neighboring anomalies make a determination difficult (possible depth could be between 20 and 30 km). The centroid depths are deeper for the Kursk anomaly (40–50 km). These depths may indicate that magnetic anomalies from the near-surface Kursk iron formations (a known contributor) and deep crustal magnetic sources could combine to form the Kursk Magsat anomaly.     

Two-step interface and velocity inversion—— Study o e of the Tangshan seismic region

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喜马拉雅山中部地区强震活动特征的初步研究

喜马拉雅山中部地区（北纬２８°—３８°、东经８０°—９０°）位于青藏高原中北部的高海拔地区,地震活动十分强烈,根据现有的地震资料：研究区内的８次７级地震是成组的且基本对称的分布于研究区中,形成了以聂拉木８级强烈地震为柄,以近南北的主压应力方向为轴的扇形,扇面的中间所发生的地震其震级小于７级,７级以上的地震分布在扇面的边缘。而且８次７级强烈地震成对分组,各组间时间间隔基本相对集中。     

THE EXCITING MECHANISM OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION TO EL NINO EVENT

The data analyses indicated that the occurrence of EL Nino event is closely related to intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the tropical atmosphere: The intraseasonal oscillation is very strong in tile tropics (particularly over the equatorial western Pacific) prior to the occurrence of El Nino; But the ISO is evidently reduced and the quasistationary system is enhanced after the outbreak of El Nino. A simple air-sea coupled model study shows that the periodical self-excited oscillation can be produced in the air-sea-coupled system, but the pattern is different from the observed ENSO mode. When there is external (atmospheric) forcing with interannual time scale, a coupled mode, which looks like the ENSO mode, will be excited in the air-sea system. Synthesizing the results in data analyses and the theoretical investigation. the mechanism of ISO in the tropical atmosphere exciting the El Nino event can be suggested : The interannual anomalies (variations) of the tropical ISO play an important role in the exciting El Nino event through the air-sea interaction.     

中国东部夏季雨带类型与前期北半球500 hPa环流异常的关系

根据1951～1986年的资料,在文献[1]对中国东部夏季（6～8月）雨带分布类型的基础上,分析了各雨型与前期北半球500 hPa环流异常的关系。重点研究了各雨型的长期天气过程。发现不同雨型前期环流有不同的长期演变过程。指出中高纬和低纬环流不同季节变异及其相互作用,可能是导致中国东部各种雨带分布类型的一个重要因素。并提出了一些预报线索,可供夏季我国大范围旱涝趋势的长期预报参考。