地震短临综合预报方法的研究

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用     

Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.     

Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003

We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.     

地质雷达及浅层地震在泥质粉砂岩中断裂带上的曲线特征

探讨了如何利用地质雷达及浅层地震有关原理判释泥质粉砂岩中隐伏断裂带的性质和特征。主要的工作方法是通过现场实测，分析地质雷达反映在张性断裂带和压性断裂带上的曲线特征，分析浅层地震相遇时距曲线在断裂带上的曲线特征。后者的主要特征有：（1）在断裂带上初至时间延长；（2）在断裂带上左右支时距曲线上下跳动的幅度均等；（3）在断裂带上跳动的长度不一；（4）在断裂带左右支时距曲线上下跳动或反相；（5）时距曲线呈喇叭口。阐明了地质雷达和浅层地震的原理及其在泥质粉砂岩中勘查断裂构造的效果     

Proportioning earthquake‐resistant RC frames in central/eastern U.S.

A maximum allowable period criterion is used to determine reasonable stiffness requirements for reinforced concrete frames with the seismicity associated with central and eastern U.S. A general relationship is developed to describe the displacement demand expected for central and eastern U.S. based on a survey of available ground motions, opinions of seismologists, and code‐based provisions. A series of hypothetical reinforced concrete frames is proportioned using a maximum allowable period criterion and evaluated for expected maximum displacement response using non‐linear dynamic analyses and a suite of ground motions. Results indicate that for the reinforced concrete structural systems considered in the study, proportioning for gravity loads will provide sufficient stiffness in central and eastern U.S. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aeromagnetic signatures over western Marie Byrd Land provide insight into magmatic arc basement, mafic magmatism and structure of the Eastern Ross Sea Rift flank

Aeromagnetic signatures over the Edward VII Peninsula (E7) provide new insight into the largely ice-covered and unexplored eastern flank of the Ross Sea Rift (RSR). Positive anomalies, 10–40 km in wavelength and with amplitudes ranging from 50 to 500 nT could reveal buried Late Devonian(?)–Early Carboniferous Ford Granodiorite plutons. This is suggested by similar magnetic signature over exposed, coeval Admiralty Intrusives of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM). Geochemical data from mid-Cretaceous Byrd Coast Granite, contact metamorphic effects on Swanson Formation and hornblende-bearing granitoid dredge samples strengthen this magnetic interpretation, making alternative explanations less probable. These magnetic anomalies over formerly adjacent TAM and western Marie Byrd Land (wMBL) terranes resemble signatures typically observed over magnetite-rich magmatic arc plutons. Shorter wavelength (5 km) 150 nT anomalies could speculatively mark mid-Cretaceous mafic dikes of the E7, similar to those exposed over the adjacent Ford Ranges. Anomalies with amplitudes of 100–360 nT over the Sulzberger Bay and at the margin of the Sulzberger Ice Shelf likely reveal mafic Late Cenozoic(?) volcanic rocks emplaced along linear rift fabric trends. Buried volcanic rock at the margin of the interpreted half-graben-like “Sulzberger Ice Shelf Block” is modelled in the Kizer Island area. The volcanic rock is marked by a coincident positive Bouguer gravity anomaly. Late Cenozoic volcanic rocks over the TAM, in the RSR, and beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibit comparable magnetic anomaly signature reflecting regional West Antarctic Rift fabric. Interpreted mafic magmatism of the E7 is likely related to mid-Cretaceous and Late Cenozoic regional crustal extension and possible mantle plume activity over wMBL. Magnetic lineaments of the E7 are enhanced in maximum horizontal gradient of pseudo-gravity, vertical derivative and 3D Euler Deconvolution maps. Apparent vertical offsets in magnetic basement at the location of the lineaments and spatially associated mafic dikes and volcanic rocks result from 2.5D magnetic modelling. A rift-related fault origin for the magnetic lineaments, segmenting the E7 region into horst and graben blocks, is proposed by comparison with offshore seismic reflection, marine gravity, on-land gravity, radio-echo sounding, apatite fission track data and structural geology. The NNW magnetic lineament, which we interpret to mark the eastern RSR shoulder, forms the western margin of the “Alexandra Mountains horst”. This fundamental aeromagnetic feature lies on strike with the Colbeck Trough, a prominent NNW half-graben linked to Late Cretaceous(?) and Cenozoic(?) faulting in the eastern RSR. East–west and north–north–east to NE magnetic trends are also imaged. Magnetic trends, if interpreted as reflecting the signature of rift-related normal faults, would imply N–S to NE crustal extension followed by later northwest–southeast directed extension. NW–SE extension would be compatible with Cenozoic(?) oblique RSR rifting. Previous structural data from the Ford Ranges have, however, been interpreted to indicate that both Cretaceous and Cenozoic extensions were N–S to NE–SW directed.     

对永胜6级地震的预报及依据

2001年10月27日在云南永胜发生6.0级地震，震前四川省地震局有较准确的中期和短临预报，加强了川滇交界地区的地震监测预报工作，并且向四川省政府作了汇报，取得了明显的社会效益。经验性地震预报重视川滇菱形地块西界断裂带动态活动图像的分析，尤其对历史强震破裂空段附近出现的中小震活动带或新活跃区段的研究；同时，重视4级前震群、川滇交界地区地下水位、水温、形变观测异常的跟踪分析和震情预测。