二滩水库蓄水1年的地震活动

二滩水电站于1998年5月1日下闸蓄水,至今已有1年多。1年来,库首区周边出现了少量与库水位涨落有关的弱震活动。本文使用了二滩水库遥测地震台网的8个高增益子台、1个低增益子台共23道记录的地震分析资料。通过对蓄水前后发生地震比较,重点对1998年5月发生在龙胜乡的小震群,6月鱼干鱼乡西北的小震群及8月发生于大坝附近的小震序列进行了分析研究。探讨了1998年5月至1999年5月的水库水位变化与地震次数及震级大小的关系。由此,得出了二滩水库蓄水初期的地震活动性研究的初步结论:蓄水后数10亿吨库水的加载导致岩石形变附加剪切应力可能是导致初期水库周边弱震活动增加的诱发因素。笔者认为加强对大坝及周围地区的地震监测和对水库诱发地震的预测研究,减轻未来可能发生的构造型诱发地震灾害是下一阶段的首要任务。     

Contribution of Local Seismic Networks To The Regional Velocity Model of The Bohemian Massif

The routine location of regional seismic events using data from the Czech National Seismological Network (CNSN) is based on Pn, Pg, Sn, Sg phases. A simple velocity model derived from Kárník's (1953) interpretation of an earthquake in Northern Hungary in 1951 has hitherto been used. At present, numerous local seismic networks record and locate local events, which are occasionally recorded at regional distances as well. Due to the relatively small dimensions of local networks, hypocenters (and origin times) determined by a local network might be considered as nearly exact from the point of view of regional-scale CNSN. The comparison of common locations performed by CNSN and by a local network enables us to estimate the accuracy of CNSN locations, as well as to optimize a simple velocity model. The joint interpretation of the CNSN bulletin and the catalogues of four local seismic networks WEBNET, OSTRAVA, KLADNO and LUBIN produced a new ID velocity model. The most frequent epicentral error in this model is less than 5 km, and most foci lie up to 15 km from the true position. The performed analysis indicates bimodal distribution of Sn residuals.     

1999年辽宁省岫岩5.4级地震的临震预报及其地震活动研究

１９９９年１１月２９日１２日１０分（北京时间）,中国辽宁省岫岩地区发生一次５．４级地震。这次地震前,在震区记录到丰富的中小地震活动,组成了完整的地震系列。该系列具有小震频度随时间增多,震级上升,ｂ值较低,地震位置集中和地震Ｐ波被动一致,将其判断为震前系列,并抓住了前震活动从密集突然变为相对平静这一大震即将发生的特征,作出了临震预报,于１１月２８日晚入震意见通报给辽宁省地震局有关部门。这次地震的预报     

A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes

The proposal that the moment release rate increases in a systematic way in a large region around a forthcoming large earthquake is tested using three recent, large New Zealand events. The three events, 1993–1995, magnitudes 6.7–7.0, occurred in varied tectonic settings. For all three events, a circular precursory region can be found such that the moment release rate of the included seismicity is modelled significantly better by the proposed accelerating model than by a linear moment release model, although in one case the result is dubious. The 'best' such regions have radii from 122 to 167 km, roughly in accord with previous observations world-wide, but are offset by 50–60 km from the associated main shock epicentre. A grid-search procedure is used to test whether these three earthquakes could have been forecast using the accelerating moment release model. For two of the earthquakes the result is positive in terms of location, but the main shock times are only loosely constrained.     

The role of constraints on joint hypocentre determination in seismotectonic studies

In this paper we show how the performance of the joint hypocentre determination (JHD) method can be improved, leading to reduced instability in cases close to singularity. The method has been extended by imposing a number of constraints introduced by other authors, and adding a new one. We tested the stability of the method and the relative advantages of the various constraints by simulating a geometrical space distribution of hypocentres recorded by a regional seismic network. We then applied this method to deep earthquakes that occurred in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea subduction zone and to the seismicity of the Northern Apennines, which is moderately deeper than the typical shallow seismicity of the Apennines. The results obtained from the analysis of synthetic data and actual earthquakes confirm that the JHD method produces less scatter in the hypocentral determinations with respect to the standard locations. The main conclusion of our study is that we can significantly reduce the systematic mislocations that result from applying JHD to very clustered seismicity if we introduce the appropriate set of constraints.     

Seismicity and fault aseismic deformation caused by fluid injection in decametric in-situ experiments

Seismicity induced by fluid perturbations became an important societal concern since felt earthquakes (M_w up to 6) occurred after anthropogenic activities. In order to mitigate the risks associated with undesired seismicity, as well as to be able to use the micro-seismicity as a probe for in-depth investigation of fluid-driven processes, it is of crucial importance to understand the links between seismicity, fluid pressure and flow. We have developed a series of in-situ, decameter-scale experiments of fault zone reactivation by controlled fluid injection, in order to improve the near-source geophysical and hydromechanical observations. The deployed geophysical monitoring close to the injection allows one to cover the full frequency range of the fault responses from the static deformation to the very high-frequency seismic emissions (up to 4 kHz). Here, we focus on the microseismicity (M_w ∼ –4 to –3) recorded during two fluid injection experiments in low-permeable shale and highly-fractured limestone formations. In both experiments, the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic events, the energy balance, and the seismic velocity changes of the fractured medium show that most of the deformation does not actually emit seismic signals. The induced deformation is mainly aseismic. Based on these high-resolution multiparametric observations in the near-field, we therefore proposed a new model for injection-induced seismicity: the seismicity is not directly induced by the increasing fluid pressure, but it is rather triggered by the stress perturbations transferred from the aseismic motion caused by the injection.     

Locally triggered seismicity in the central Swiss Alps following the large rainfall event of August 2005

In 2005 August, an unusual series of 47 earthquakes occurred over a 12-hr period in central Switzerland. The earthquakes occurred at the end of 3-d period of intensive rainfall, with over 300 mm of precipitation. The highest seismicity occurred as two distinct clusters in the region of Muotatal and Riemenstalden, Switzerland, a well-known Karst area that received a particularly large amount of rainfall. The large increase in seismicity, compared to the background, and the short time delay between the onset of the intense rainfall and the seismicity strongly suggest that earthquakes were triggered by rainfall. In our preferred model, an increase in fluid pressure at the surface due to a large amount of rain leads to a local increase in pore fluid pressure at depth. The increase in pore fluid pressure will reduce the shear strength of a porous medium by counteracting normal stress and, at the end, provoke failure. The series of triggered earthquakes in central Switzerland occurred in regions that have been seismically active in the past, showing similar hypocentre locations and magnitudes. This suggests that these earthquakes occurred on existing faults that were critically stressed. We modelled the intense rainfall as a step increase in fluid pressure at the surface that migrates to greater depths following the solution of the one-dimensional diffusion equation in a homogeneous half space. This allowed us to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity by plotting triggered seismicity in a time–depth plot. We found values of hydraulic diffusivity in the range from 0.01 to 0.5 m² s⁻¹ for our study area. These values are in good agreement with previous studies on earthquakes that were triggered by fluids, supporting the idea that the observed earthquake series was triggered by the large amount of rainfall.