Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Along the Southeastern Coast of Vietnam

On the basis of the analysis of geological, tectonic characteristics and earthquake manifestation features, a causative relation between geodynamic regime and seismicity has been established for the southeastern coastal zone and continental shelf of Vietnam. The probabilistic methods have been used to evaluate ground shaking effects at Nha Trang city aswell as for the entire study area. Short, intermediate and long term predictions of ground shaking (in the form of peak ground accelerationmaps) show high risks in the coastal zone of central Vietnam and in the southeastern continental shelf of the country.     

Triggered seismicity in the Andean arc region via static stress variation by the MW = 8.8, February 27, 2010, Maule earthquake

We localized crustal earthquakes in the Andean arc, between 35°S and 36°S, from December 2009 to May 2010. This research shows a seismicity increase, in a narrow longitudinal area, of more than nine times after the great M_w 8.8 Maule earthquake.The localized seismicity defines an area of ∼80 km long and ∼18 km wide and NNW to NNE trend. The M_d magnitudes varied from 0.7 to 3.1 except for two earthquakes with M_w of 3.9 and 4.5, located in the northern end of the area. The focal mechanisms for these two last events were normal/strike-slip and strike-slip respectively.During 2011, a network of 13 temporary stations was installed in the trasarc region in Malargüe, Argentina. Sixty earthquakes were localized in the study region during an 8 month period.We explored how changes in Coulomb conditions associated with the mega-thrust earthquake triggered subsequent upper-plate events in the arc region. We assumed the major proposed structures as receiver faults and used previously published earthquake source parameters and slip distribution for the Maule quake. The largest contribution to static stress change, up to 5 bars, derives from unclamping resulting consistent with co-seismic dilatational deformation inferred from GPS observations in the region and subsidence in nearby volcanoes caused by magma migration.Three different Quaternary tectonic settings–extensional, strike-slip and compressional-have been proposed for the arc region at these latitudes. We found that the unclamping produced by the Maule quake could temporarily change the local regime to normal/strike-slip, or at least it would favor the activation of Quaternary NNE to N-trending dextral strike-slip faults with dextral transtensional movement.     

Management of Historical Seismic Data Using GIS: The Island of Ischia (Southern Italy)

This paper presents the results of the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) inmanaging information on the effects of earthquakes in historical times on the island ofIschia. The unpublished sources on the Casamicciola earthquake of 28 July 1883 andthe extensive bibliography documenting the island's seismicity from 1228 showed theneed to proceed towards a type of data storage that would also allow management ofthe same data. Application of GIS techniques allowed us to insert, extract, handle,manage and analyse the data for the zoning of seismic damage on the island of Ischia.The end-product consists of information layers, such as maps of isoseismals, the damage, and hazard involved, as well as numerical tables associated to maps.The study was developed using GIS Arc-View 3.2 software (ESRI) and is structured inthematic vectorial levels and rasters. The overlapping themes constitute a cartographicdata base of the island. The damaged sites are located on a map at a scale of 1:10,000,with all the information on the 1883 earthquake (total number of houses, number ofcollapsed houses, collapsed or damaged rooms, photographs, plans of buildings, etc.)being associated to each site. The GIS is structured in such a way as to be able to beintegrated with further georeferenced data and with other databases. It is thus able toprovide support both for in-depth analyses of the dynamic processes on the island andextend the assessment to other natural risks (volcanic, landslides, flooding, etc.).     

The connection of geodynamics with seismicity patterns

When a study is to be made of seismic risks, the present-day geodynamic conditions are of fundamental importance: Earthquakes do not happen by themselves, they do have a cause. The cause of earthquakes is that the tectonic stresses exceed a critical limit. The build-up of these stresses is conditioned by the geodynamic processes occurring in the region in question. A knowledge of the geodynamics characteristic of a region is therefore fundamental for seismic risk studies. The general methodology for making such a geodynamic study is based on the entire set of manifestations of the plate-tectonic conditions of that region: these include the mechanism of earthquakes, the stresses observed in mines, the orientation of surface joints and even the direction of river valleys. Examples of geodynamic studies and their bearing on seismic risks are shown from various areas of the world, notably from China, India, and Colombia.     

Full moment tensor inversion constrained by double-couple focal mechanism for induced seismicity*

In this study, we propose a new method to determine full moment tensor solution for induced seismicity. This method generalizes the full waveform matching algorithm we have developed to determine the double-couple (DC) focal mechanism based on the neighbourhood algorithm. One major difference between the new method and the former one is that we adopt a new misfit function to constrain the candidate moment tensor solutions with respect to a reference DC solution in addition to other misfit terms characterizing the waveform matching. Through synthetic tests using a real passive seismic survey geometry, the results show the new constraint can help better recover the DC components of inverted moment tensors. We further investigate how errors in the velocity model and source location affect the moment tensor solution. The synthetic test results indicate that the constrained inversion is robust in recovering both the DC and non-DC components. We also test the proposed method on several real induced events in an oil/gas field in Oman using the same observation system as synthetic tests. While it is found that the full moment tensor solutions without using the DC constraints have much larger non-DC components than solutions with the DC constraints, both solutions are able to fit the observed waveforms at similar levels. The synthetic and real test results suggest the proposed DC constrained inversion method can reliably retrieve full moment tensor solutions for the induced seismicity.     

Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.     

A Preliminary Study on the Soft–Sediment Deformation Structures in the Late Quaternary Lacustrine Sediments at Tashkorgan, Northeastern Pamir, China

This study identified soft–sediment deformation structures(SSDS) of seismic origin from lacustrine sediments in the late Quaternary paleo–dammed lake at Tashkorgan, northeastern Pamir. The observed deformation structures include sand dykes, liquefied diapir and convolute structures, gravity induced SSDS, and thixotropic pillar and tabular structures. We conducted a preliminary study on the morphology, formation and trigger mechanisms of pillar and tabular structures formed by liquefaction of underlying coarse sand and thixotropy of the upper silty clay. The regional tectonic setting and distribution of lacustrine strata indicate that the most probable trigger for the SSDS in lacustrine sediments was seismic activity, with an approximate earthquake magnitude of M6.0; the potential seismogenic fault is the southern part of the Kongur normal fault extensional system. AMS 14 C dating results indicate that the SSDS were formed by seismic events occurring between 26050±100 yr BP and 22710±80 yr BP, implying intense fault activity in this region during the late Pleistocene. This study provides new evidence for understanding tectonic activity and regional geodynamics in western China.     

A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings

In this paper, we show the seismicity of the past 20 years that occurred in Italy and surrounding regions. Hypocentral locations have been obtained by using P- and S-wave arrival times from the INGV national and several regional permanent seismic networks. More than 48,000 events, selected from an original data set of about 99,780, are used to reconstruct the most complete seismic picture of the Italian region so far. The seismicity distribution allows inference on seismotectonics of this complex region of subduction versus continental collision. Our results clearly reveal the geometry of the Adria and the Ionian subduction and a continuous normal fault belt in the upper crust, following the Apennines mountain range. The depth of the seismogenic layer is computed from the cut-off of seismicity at depth and shows large variations along and across the seismic active regions. Earthquakes are generated by the different velocity of slab retreat and the subsequent asthenospheric upwelling.     

Nonlinear magnitude frequency relation and two types of seismicity systems

A nonlinear magnitude frequency equation has been derived in this paper on the assumption that all seismicity systems hold fractal characteristics, and according to the differences of relevant coefficients in the equation, seismicity systems are classified into two types: type I, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by only one great unified system; type II, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by more than one great system. One type of seismicity system may convert to the other type, generally. For example, a type I system will change to a type II system prior to the occurrence of a strong earthquake in North China. This change can be regarded as an index for earthquake trend estimation. In addition, the difference between b value in nonlinear magnitude frequency equation and that in linear equation and the term dΔM related to the coefficients of nonlinear terms obtained in this paper are proved to be a pair of available parameters for medium short term earthquake prediction.