Mechanical intrusion models and their implications for the possibility of magma-driven swarms in NW Bohemia Region

Earthquake swarms are often assumed to be caused by magmatic or fluid intrusions, where the stress changes in the vicinity of the intrusion control the position, strength and rate of seismicity. Fracture mechanical models of natural intrusions or man-made hydrofractures pose constraints on orientation, magnitude, shape and growing rate of fractures and can be used to estimate stress changes in the vicinity of the intrusions. Although the idea of intrusion-induced seismicity is widely accepted, specific comparisons of seismicity patterns with fracture models of stress changes are rarely done. The goal of the study is to review patterns of intrusion-induced earthquake swarms in comparison to the observations of the swarm in NW Bohemia in 2000. We analyse and discuss the theoretical 3D shape of intrusions under mixed mode loading and apparent buoyancy. The aspect ratio and form of the intrusion is used to constrain parameters of the fluid, the surrounding rock and stress. We conclude that the 2000 NW Bohemia swarm could have been driven by a magmatic intrusion. The intrusion was, however, inclined to the maximal principal stress and caused shear displacement additional to opening. We estimate that the density diference between magma and rock was small. The feeding reservoir was possibly much larger than the area affected from earthquakes and may be a vertical dike beneath the swarm region.     

Comparison of source parameters estimated in the frequency and time domains for seismic events at the Rudna copper mine,Poland

Source parameters estimated in the frequency domain for 100 selected seismic events from the Rudna copper mine, with moment magnitude ranging from 1.4 to 3.6, were collected to study their scaling relations and to compare them with the parameters estimated in the time domain. The apparent stress and static stress drop, corrected for the limited bandwidth recording, increase slightly in a similar manner with increasing seismic moment. The ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop, a measure of radiation efficiency, is practically constant and its mean value is close to 0.1. For 37 seismic events, with moment magnitude between 1.9 and 3.4, source parameters were estimated in the time domain from relative source time functions, that displayed unilateral rupture propagation, and their rupture velocity could be estimated. It ranges from 0.23 to 0.80 of shear wave velocity and is almost independent of seismic moment. The fault length, estimated from the average source pulse width and rupture velocity, is clearly dependent on seismic moment and is smaller than the source radius estimated from the corner frequency on the average by about 25 percent. There is no correlation between the values of static stress drop estimated in the frequency and time domains, but the time domain stress drop is in general similar to that estimated in the frequency domain. The apparent stress increases with increasing rupture velocity, and the ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop seems also to depend on rupture velocity.     

水库诱发地震活动特征及其预测方法研究

根据国内外水库诱发地震的观测与研究震例,分析研究了一些著名水库诱发序列的地震活动特征,并根据水库诱发地震随水库蓄水时间的变化,把水库诱发地震活动归纳为迅速响应型、延迟响应型和混合响应型三类,分析讨论了这三类水库诱发地震活动在时间和空间分布上的不同特点,并在此基础上综合分析了水库诱发地震预测方法研究的技术途径.     

Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction

This paper introduces the method of support vector machine (SVM) into the field of synthetic earthquake pre-diction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area (30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N) and the capital region (38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N) on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and ...     

青藏高原北部中强以上地震震兆异常的分级特征研究

通过对青藏高原北部中强以上地震前普遍出现的地震活动异常进行了系统的分析和总结,发现各地震活动前兆异常参数与主震震级有分级特征,其结果对未来青藏高原北部中强以上地震的预测具有一定的实用和参考价值.     

福建地区地震活动特征及区域应力场研究

本文通过对福建地区地质构造背景和地震活动性背景的分析,结合2007-2009年福建地区ML4.0级以上地震的活动概况,综合认为福建地区地震活动显著增强,这可能也预示着东南沿海整体地震活动水平的抬升。从7个ML4.0级以上地震的单个震源机制解结果分析认为,古田水口水库地区的地震表现为倾滑的正断层性质,其余地震的走滑性质更为明显;且各个地震的主压应力轴方向也存在一定的差异。利用多个地震的分区综合节面解结果分析认为,近期福建地区中等强度地震活动显示出的区域应力场方向以北西向为主,在不同区域主压应力的方向有所差异：福建中北部近海地区为北西向,中北部内陆地区为北北西-南南东向;福建南部及其近海地区为近东西向。主要受到菲律宾板块向西推挤作用的影响。     

使用因子分析方法研究吉林前郭地震前的地震活动异常

本文用2006年吉林前郭MS5.0级地震前后震中附近的地震资料,选择反映地震活动时、空、强特征的地震频次N（ML≥3.0）、b值、η值、A（b）值、Mf值、Ac值、C值和D值8个参量进行因子分析。这些参量之间有一定的相关性,各参量在不同时段的变化各有所异,预报效果并不理想。根据因子分析得到反映地震活动时、空、强特征的综合指标Wfa值,该指标在前郭MS5.0级地震前出现明显异常变化,表明综合指标Wfa值可以较好地反映地震活动的异常特征。     

Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and petrofabric studies in the Garhwal synform, Outer Lesser Himalaya: Evidence of pop-up klippen

Abstract   Geological field, petrographic, and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility studies help in understanding the evolutionary history of the Garhwal synform that lies in the western Outer Lesser Himalaya. Orientations of the magnetic susceptibility axes reveal large variations at short distances as a result of superimposed deformation, and predominant stress conditions favorable for normal faulting. Rocks forming the outer limbs of the Garhwal Synform are metamorphosed up to the lower greenschist facies. The metamorphic grade increases to chlorite zone in the inner limb and the core is characterized by chlorite–biotite to garnet zones. The different grades of metamorphism are separated by thrusts and the structure is described as a pop-up klippen.     

Discussion on Principles and Methods in Estimating the Maximum Potential Earthquakes in Low Seismicity Areas

Five principles and methods are proposed for estimating the maximum potential earthquakesin low seismicity areas,and their applicabilities are discussed,taking Sichuan basin as asample area.The proposed principles and methods are not only on the grounds of thegeological tectonics but also considered fully the mutual complementation between geologicaland seismological methods.They will be helpful to the study of engineering seismology andthe assessment of designing ground motion parameters in low seismicity areas.