青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

Comparisons between the influences of habitat, body size and season on the dietary composition of the sparid Acanthopagrus latus in a large marine embayment

Seasonal samples from Shark Bay on the west coast of Australia were used to determine (1) the habitats occupied by the juveniles and adults of Acanthopagrus latus in this large subtropical marine embayment and (2) the extent to which the dietary composition of this sparid is influenced by habitat type, body length and season. Sampling was undertaken in two habitat types in which A. latus was known to be abundant, namely mangrove (Avicennia marina) creeks and nearby rocky areas, the latter comprising sandstone boulders and/or limestone reefs. The mean total length ±95% CLs of A. latus was far lower in mangrove creeks, 126 ± 6.1 mm, than in rocky areas, 313 ± 4.7 mm. As A. latus attains maturity at ca. 245 mm, the juveniles of this species typically occupy mangrove areas and then, with increasing body size, move to nearshore rocky areas, where they become adults. The species composition of the food ingested by juvenile A. latus in mangrove creeks differed markedly from that of large juveniles and adults in rocky areas. Based on analyses of data for both habitat types combined, this difference was far greater than that between size classes and season, which was negligible. There were indications, however, that, overall within each habitat, the dietary composition did change seasonally, although not with body size. Acanthopagrus latus fed predominantly on mangrove material, sesarmid crabs and small gastropods in mangrove habitats, and mainly on Brachidontes ustulatus in rocky areas, where this mytilid bivalve is very abundant. The mangrove material, which contributed nearly 40% of its overall dietary volume in mangrove creeks, consisted mainly of lateral root primordia. This apparently unique food source for a teleost is presumably ingested through subsurface nipping, which would be facilitated by the mouth and dentitional characteristics of sparids. The almost total lack of correspondence in the dietary compositions of fish in the length class that was well represented in both mangrove and rocky areas illustrates the extent to which this sparid is capable of opportunistic feeding behaviour.     

Effects of tributyltin at environmental levels on monooxygenase system of digestive gland in hard clam Meretrix meretrix

The effects on ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase （EROD）, NADPH-cytochrome c reductase and NADH cytochrorne b5 reductase activities of digestive gland in Meretrix meretrix exposed to tributyltin （TBT） at environmental levels （0.1,1.0,10.0 ng/dm as stannum concentration）,in experimental condition, were evaluated. The EROD, NADH cytochrorne b5 reductase activities were significantly inhibited after exposure to 10.0 ng/dm^3 TBT for 8 and 20 d, the NADPH cytochrorne c reductase activities were significantly inhibited after exposure to 0.1,1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm TBT for 8 d and to 1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm for 20 d, as compared with the matched control, while NADH cytochrorne b5 reductases and NADPH cytochrome c reductase activities were induced after exposure to 10.0 ng/dm^3 TBT for 2 d. The EROD activity in the 10 ng/dm^3 group,and the NADH cytochrome b5 reductases activities in 1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm groups, were significantly induced when transferred to clean recovery tanks for 7 d. The three enzymic activities in the clams exposed to TBT were recovered to the level corresponding to that of the control group after transfer to clean recovery tanks for 20 d. NADPH cytochrome c reductase activity in Meretrix meretrix seems to be more sensitive to exposure of TBT than that of the EROD and NADH cytochrome b5 reductases. The results suggest that induction and inhibition by TBT to the monooxygenase system enzymic activity in Meretrix meretrix would simultaneously exist. The enzymic activities were inhibited by exposure for a long time. The results suggest that inhibition of the monooxygenase system should be an indication of the exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of TBT for a long time.     

城市建设中的地震小区划与浅层地震探测

简要阐述地震小区划在现代城市建设中的重要性以及在实施地震小区划的研究中浅层地震探测的重要作用及其方法原理,并给出应用浅层地震探测在城市地震小区划中的实例。     

一种基于BP算法学习的小波神经网络

为发展 Szu的基于信号表示的小波神经网络 ,提出一种多输入多输出的小波网络模型 ,网络隐层采用框架小波函数、输出层采用 Sigmoid激励函数 ,并选用“熵误差函数”以加速网络的学习速度。奇偶判别和混沌时间序列预测例子的实验结果表明了它具有良好的函数逼近能力和推广能力 ,收敛速度和均方误差均优于相同结构的多层感知器模型。     

琼州海峡铁路轮渡新海湾港区泥沙淤积问题

海南省拟建琼州海峡铁路轮渡。本文通过对海峡南岸新海湾轮渡港址附近自然条件、岸滩演变和输沙特征的分析研究，对不同类型港区布置方案港内开挖区和航道的淤积强度、淤积量等进行了计算，并对不同防护建筑物的有效拦沙时间等进行了探讨和计算，提出了港区类型推荐方案。     

Remote estimation of surficial seafloor properties through the application Angular Range Analysis to multibeam sonar data

The variation of the backscatter strength with the angle of incidence is an intrinsic property of the seafloor, which can be used in methods for acoustic seafloor characterization. Although multibeam sonars acquire backscatter over a wide range of incidence angles, the angular information is normally neglected during standard backscatter processing and mosaicking. An approach called Angular Range Analysis has been developed to preserve the backscatter angular information, and use it for remote estimation of seafloor properties. Angular Range Analysis starts with the beam-by-beam time-series of acoustic backscatter provided by the multibeam sonar and then corrects the backscatter for seafloor slope, beam pattern, time varying and angle varying gains, and area of insonification. Subsequently a series of parameters are calculated from the stacking of consecutive time series over a spatial scale that approximates half of the swath width. Based on these calculated parameters and the inversion of an acoustic backscatter model, we estimate the acoustic impedance and the roughness of the insonified area on the seafloor. In the process of this inversion, the behavior of the model parameters is constrained by established inter-property relationships. The approach has been tested using a 300 kHz Simrad EM3000 multibeam sonar in Little Bay, NH. Impedance estimates are compared to in situ measurements of sound speed. The comparison shows a very good correlation, indicating the potential of this approach for robust seafloor characterization.     

Geochemical and hydrodynamic constraints on the distribution of trace metal concentrations in the lagoon of Nouméa, New Caledonia

Seawater samples were collected in the lagoon of Nouméa (southwest New Caledonia) along two transects from eutrophic coastal bays to the oligotrophic barrier reef. Land-based emissions to the lagoon were measured with dissolved and particulate concentrations of chromium (Cr) and nickel (Ni), used as tracers of both terrigenous and industrial (Ni ore treatment) activities, as well as dissolved and particulate concentrations of zinc (Zn), used as a tracer of urban effluents. The spatial variability of metal concentrations was related to geochemical and hydrodynamic conditions, i.e., respectively: (1) natural and anthropogenic emission sources, and chemical processes occurring in the water column; and (2) water residence times. The parameter used to describe the residence time of water masses was the local e-flushing time, i.e. the time required for a tracer mass contained within a given station to be reduced by a factor 1/e. High metal concentrations were found in coastal areas (up to 9000 ng dissolved Ni L⁻¹), and steeply decreased with distance from the coast (down to 101 ng dissolved Ni L⁻¹ near the barrier reef) to reach levels similar to those found in remote Pacific waters, suggesting a rapid renewal of waters close to the barrier. Distributions of metals in the lagoon are controlled upstream by land-based emission sources and later chemical processes. Then hydrodynamics constrain metal distributions, as shown by the observed relationship between local e-flushing times and the spatial variability of metal concentrations. In addition, a change in the direction of prevailing winds yielded a decrease of dissolved metal concentrations at the same site by a factor of 2.5 (Cr and Ni) and 2.9 (Zn). It is suggested that the residence time is a key parameter in the control of elemental concentrations in the lagoon waters, as much as land-based emission sources.     

4D seismic time-lapse monitoring of an active cold vent,northern Cascadia margin

Two single-channel seismic (SCS) data sets collected in 2000 and 2005 were used for a four-dimensional (4D) time-lapse analysis of an active cold vent (Bullseye Vent). The data set acquired in 2000 serves as a reference in the applied processing sequence. The 4D processing sequence utilizes time- and phase-matching, gain adjustments and shaping filters to transform the 2005 data set so that it is most comparable to the conditions under which the 2000 data were acquired. The cold vent is characterized by seismic blanking, which is a result of the presence of gas hydrate in the subsurface either within coarser-grained turbidite sands or in fractures, as well as free gas trapped in these fracture systems. The area of blanking was defined using the seismic attributes instantaneous amplitude and similarity. Several areas were identified where blanking was reduced in 2005 relative to 2000. But most of the centre of Bullseye Vent and the area around it were seen to be characterized by intensified blanking in 2005. Tracing these areas of intensified blanking through the three-dimensional (3D) seismic volume defined several apparent new flow pathways that were not seen in the 2000 data, which are interpreted as newly generated fractures/faults for upward fluid migration. Intensified blanking is interpreted as a result of new formation of gas hydrate in the subsurface along new fracture pathways. Areas with reduced blanking may be zones where formerly plugged fractures that had trapped some free gas may have been opened and free gas was liberated.     

Fast static correction methods for high-frequency multichannel marine seismic reflection data: A high-resolution seismic study of channel-levee systems on the Bengal Fan

Very high-frequency marine multichannel seismic reflection data generated by small-volume air- or waterguns allow detailed, high-resolution studies of sedimentary structures of the order of one to few metres wavelength. The high-frequency content, however, requires (1) a very exact knowledge of the source and receiver positions, and (2) the development of data processing methods which take this exact geometry into account. Static corrections are crucial for the quality of very high-frequency stacked data because static shifts caused by variations of the source and streamer depths are of the order of half to one dominant wavelength, so that they can lead to destructive interference during stacking of CDP sorted traces. As common surface-consistent residual static correction methods developed for land seismic data require fixed shot and receiver locations two simple and fast techniques have been developed for marine seismic data with moving sources and receivers to correct such static shifts. The first method – called CDP static correction method – is based on a simultaneous recording of Parasound sediment echosounder and multichannel seismic reflection data. It compares the depth information derived from the first arrivals of both data sets to calculate static correction time shifts for each seismic channel relative to the Parasound water depths. The second method – called average static correction method – utilises the fact that the streamer depth is mainly controlled by bird units, which keep the streamer in a predefined depth at certain increments but do not prevent the streamer from being slightly buoyant in-between. In case of calm weather conditions these streamer bendings mainly contribute to the overall static time shifts, whereas depth variations of the source are negligible. Hence, mean static correction time shifts are calculated for each channel by averaging the depth values determined at each geophone group position for several subsequent shots. Application of both methods to data of a high-resolution seismic survey of channel-levee systems on the Bengal Fan shows that the quality of the stacked section can be improved significantly compared to stacking results achieved without preceding static corrections. The optimised records show sedimentary features in great detail, that are not visible without static corrections. Limitations only result from the sea floor topography. The CDP static correction method generally provides more coherent reflections than the average static correction method but can only be applied in areas with rather flat sea floor, where no diffraction hyperbolae occur. In contrast, the average static correction method can also be used in regions with rough morphology, but the coherency of reflections is slightly reduced compared to the results of the CDP static correction method.