苍山5.2Ms级地震前后地震前兆综合危险度的变化

地震前兆综合危险度是以系统论为基础的一种综合地震预报的新方法。利用山东省每年年底的地震会商报告给出的地震前兆异常,而不是取震后的震例总结或论文给出的异常,通过“专家系统”的思想,对每一异常事件进行综合评估,计算出无量纲的、归一化的地震前兆综合危险度,分析了１９９５年９月２０日山东苍山５２Ｍｓ级地震前综合危险度的变化特征。震前综合危险度出现了一次明显的高值异常变化,震后危险度很快下降恢复到正常水平。     

Linking multi-level governance to local common-pool resource theory using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis: Insights from twenty years of biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica

Understanding the relationship between multi-level institutional linkages and conditions influencing the likelihood of successful collective action has practical and theoretical relevance to sustainable local resource governance. This paper studies the relationship between multi-level linkages and local autonomy, a facilitating condition found to increase the likelihood of local successful collective action. A technique known as fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was applied to a longitudinal comparative data set. In the context of the decentralization of a protected area system in Costa Rica (1986–2006), it traced the emergence and endurance of autonomy among local institutions for biodiversity conservation. The technique illustrates which set of multi-level linkages combined in different ways, and at different points in time, to reach the same outcome (local autonomy). The findings show that a unique set of combinations of multi-level linkages led to the emergence of local autonomy among institutions for biodiversity conservation governance. In contrast, a more diverse set was associated with the endurance of local autonomy over time, suggesting that institutional diversity may play a more prominent role in the maintenance of institutional robustness than in processes of institutional emergence.     

香港地区地震风险评价和设防区划

香港地区隶属于中国板内地震区中的东南沿海块缘地震带。港-九块体为晚中生代至早第三纪以来以持续稳定上升为主的块体, 块体活动性明显地低于其周边相对下沉的中新生代盆地。为此, 赋予港-九块体为最大可信震级M=5.5级潜在震源区, 而其周边中新生代断陷盆地则为最大可信震级M6.0潜在震源。从大陆地震构造成因的环境、潜在震源可信震级范围M=5.0～7.5和近源地震动饱和等三个方面的可比性, 结合中国大陆地震震源破裂尺度和地震烈度影响场, 所建立的反映中国地震构造和震源破裂及地震烈度影响场特点的PGA和反应谱地震动衰减预测关系式可用于香港地区。以50%概率时的中值对中国强震记录的对比, 本研究所提供的经验期望预测关系式, 能包络实际的资料。因此, 用此地震动衰减预测模式对香港地区地震危险性进行评估, 将会得到相对保守地震动预测值。通过香港地区基岩地震动危险性分析和计算, 参照中国大陆地震设防标准, 进行了基岩设计参数确定和区划。以年概率P=0.02、P=0.002、P=0.0004三个概率标准, 对应的地震动重复周期大约分别约为50a, 500a, 2500a的基岩PGA和反应谱, 作为香港地区基岩上构筑物和建筑物可选的基     

A framework for the seismic assessment of existing masonry buildings accounting for different sources of uncertainty

The current formulation of Eurocode 8 Part 3 and the Italian building code for the seismic assessment of existing buildings accounts for epistemic (knowledge‐based) uncertainties by means of the identification of knowledge levels with associated values of the so‐called confidence factors, applied only as a reduction of material strengths. This formulation does not always produce consistent results and it does not explicitly account for other sources of uncertainty. The paper proposes a probabilistic methodology for the quantification of appropriately defined factors, allowing consideration of the different sources of uncertainty involved in the seismic assessment of masonry buildings by means of nonlinear static analyses. This simple approach, also including an alternative formulation of the confidence factors related with material properties, allows to obtain results which are consistent with the acquired level of knowledge and correctly account for the different sources of uncertainty without requiring to carry out any stochastic nonlinear analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

遵义市岩溶地下水环境的空间信息统计组合分析

应用空间信息统计分析理论与方法来分析遵义市岩溶地下水环境,对遵义市城区岩溶地下水中的硫酸盐(SO42-)、氨氮(NH4+)、亚硝酸盐(NO2-)、硝酸盐(NO3-)等离子作克里格(Kriging)估值等值线图,并根据等值线图对4种离子的空间分布特征及范围、空间变化规律进行分析评价。     

Comparison of automatic classification methods applied to lake geochemical samples

Geochemical samples from part of Lake Geneva were analyzed for 29oxides and trace elements. The variables and samples were subjected to R- and Q-mode analyses. The following techniques were applied in sequence: data transformation (normalization and standardization), data reduction (principal component and factor analysis), and automatic classification (dendrograph). The data were treated using various combinations of these techniques, and the resulting classifications evaluated by means of several criteria. The best classification of the samples is given by a cluster analysis performed on four principal components computed from standardized variables. The discriminatory power of the variables also was measured and determined to depend on their degree of intercorrelation. As a final result, the 29original variables were reduced to four components and the sediment samples classified into four facies, leading to easily interpretable geochemical maps.     

Exact reconstruction with directional wavelets on the sphere

A new formalism is derived for the analysis and exact reconstruction of band-limited signals on the sphere with directional wavelets. It represents an evolution of a previously developed wavelet formalism developed by Antoine & Vandergheynst and Wiaux et al. The translations of the wavelets at any point on the sphere and their proper rotations are still defined through the continuous three-dimensional rotations. The dilations of the wavelets are directly defined in harmonic space through a new kernel dilation, which is a modification of an existing harmonic dilation. A family of factorized steerable functions with compact harmonic support which are suitable for this kernel dilation are first identified. A scale-discretized wavelet formalism is then derived, relying on this dilation. The discrete nature of the analysis scales allows the exact reconstruction of band-limited signals. A corresponding exact multi-resolution algorithm is finally described and an implementation is tested. The formalism is of interest notably for the denoising or the deconvolution of signals on the sphere with a sparse expansion in wavelets. In astrophysics, it finds a particular application for the identification of localized directional features in the cosmic microwave background data, such as the imprint of topological defects, in particular, cosmic strings, and for their reconstruction after separation from the other signal components.     

土质场地重力式挡土墙地震土压力振动台实验研究

汶川震区路基挡土墙震害表明,地震动荷载作用下重力式挡墙的位移、破坏与基础场地形式有关,除岩质场地和土质场地挡墙所共有的外倾形式,土质地基挡土墙还表现有整体推移及下部向外推移的倾转变形等复杂模式,因此地震土压力大小及分布也将受到这种复杂土-结相互作用的影响。基于碎石土及风化花岗岩填料的土质场地重力式挡土墙大型振动台模型实验,对挡土墙地震土压力及变形模式开展了对比研究,发现在强震作用下,土质地基挡墙因基础约束较弱而产生位移,并伴随明显的墙—土分离现象,致使实测地震土压力较之抗震设计规范计算值偏小（0.4g峰值加速度下约小6%～15%）,但作用点高度变化不大。由实验结果与现行抗震规范计算值的安全系数对比,认为对土质场地挡墙的地震土压力计算,按现行国内抗震设计规范基本能满足实际工程抗震设计需要;对于地震区挡墙设计,在允许挡墙发生少量容许位移的前提下可采用内摩擦角较大、自稳能力更好的墙背填料以减少地震土压力。     

Precursory seismic crustal deformation in the area of southern Albanides

On the basis of growing evidence thatstrong earthquakes are preceded by a periodof accelerating seismicity of moderatemagnitude earthquakes, an attempt is madeto search for such seismicity pattern in NWAegean area. Accelerating seismic crustaldeformation has been identified in the areaof southern Albanides mountain range(border region between Greece, formerYugoslavia and Albania). Based on certainproperties of this activity and on itssimilarity with accelerating seismicdeformation observed before a strongearthquake which occurred in the sameregion on 26 May 1960 (M = 6.5), we canconclude that a similar earthquake may begenerated in the same region during thenext few years. This conclusion is inagreement with independent results whichhave been derived on the basis of the timepredictable model.