Fault dimensions,displacements and growth

Maximum total displacement (D) is plotted against fault or thrust width(W) for 65 faults, thrusts, and groups of faults from a variety of geological environments. Displacements range from 0.4 m to 40 km and widths from 150 m to 630 km, and there is a near linear relationship betweenD andW ². The required compatibility strains (e _s) in rocks adjacent to these faults increases linearly withW and with and ranges frome _s=2×10^–4 toe _s=3×10^–1. These are permanent ductile strains, which compare with values ofe _s=2×10^–5 for the elastic strains imposed during single slip earthquake events, which are characterised by a linear relationship between slip (u) andW.The data are consisten with a simple growth model for faults and thrusts, in which the slip in successive events increases by increments of constant size, and which predicts a relationship between displacement and width of the formD=cW ². Incorporation of constant ductile strain rate into the model shows that the repreat time for slip events remains constant throughout the life of a fault, while the displacement rate increases with time. An internally consistent model withe _s=2×10^–5, giving repeat times of 160 years and instantaneous displacement rates of 0.02 cm/yr, 0.2 cm/yr, and 2.0 cm/yr when total displacement is 1 m, 100 m, and 10 km, and slip increasing by 0.5 mm with each event, gives a good approximation of the data. The model is also applicable to stable sliding, the slip rate varying with ductile strain rate and withW ².     

Multiple scattering of seismic waves in fractured media: Velocity and effective attenuation of the coherent components ofP waves andS waves

We show that the multiple scattering by small fractures of seismic waves with wavelengths long compared to the fracture size and fracture spacing is indistinguishable from multiple-scattering effects produced by regular porosity, except for an orientation factor due to fracture alignment. The fractures reduce theP-wave andS-wave velocities and produce an effective attenuation of the coherent component of the seismic waves. The attenuation corresponds to 1000/Q of about unity for a Gaussian spectrum of fractures, and it varies with frequencyf asf ³. For a Kolmogorov spectrum of fractures of spectral index the attenuation is an order of magnitude or so larger and varies with frequency asf ^3-v The precise degree of attenuation depends upon the matrix properties, the fracture porosity, the degree of fracture anisotropy, the type of fluid filling the fractures, and the incidence angle of the wave.For fracture porosities less than about 15% theP-wave andS-wave velocities are decreased by the order of 5–10% with a lesser dependence on the type of fluid filling the fractures (gas, oil, or brine) and with a dependence on both the degree of anisotropy and the incident angle made by the wave. The tendency of fractures to occur perpendicularly to bedding suggests that the best way to measure seismically fractured rock behavior in situ is by using the travel-time delay and reflection amplitude. As both the offset and the azimuth of receivers vary from a shot, the travel-time delay and reflection amplitude should both show an elliptical pattern of behavior—the travel-time delay in response to the varying seismic speed, and the reflection amplitude in response to angular variations in the multiple scattering. Observations of attenuation at several frequencies should permit (a) determination of the spectrum of fractures (Gaussian versus Kolmogorovian) and (b) determination of the contribution of viscous damping to the effective attenuation.     

区域震相强度比—岩石层热状态的有效指示

本文根据白家疃台６０年代以来的短周期地震记录图，分析了区域震相的强度比。研究表明：Ｓｎ／Ｌｇ波的强度比波传播路径上岩石层热结构、热状态及强地震活动等均有相关性，并就这种相关性对于强地震成因及其预测研究的直接意义进行了讨论。     

BP网络在位场解释中的应用

介绍了ＢＰ网络的特点，阐述了它在位场资料解释中应用的方法、特点和可行性。通过模型计算证实了该方法在位场异常识别中的效果，正确率达９７％。此外，通过修改网络单元的激发函数，增强网络的稳定性和内插功能，使ＢＰ网络在多层密度界面反演中得到满意的结果，模型和实例计算证明了该方法的有效性。     

台湾琉球地区Lg波的震相特征

根据浙闽台站记录的台湾琉球近震资料，研究了该区Ｌｇ波的组成及各震相的基本特征。研究表明，该区Ｌｇ波由多个速度不同的波群组成，在Ｌｇ１和Ｌｇ２两种波中可以分出Ｌｇ′１、Ｌｇ″１；和Ｌｇ′２、Ｌｇ″２四种震相，不同震区各震相的记录特征明显不同，鲜明地反映出地壳结构由大陆型向海洋型过渡的特点。此外，还对波列中的未知震相、影响震相记录特征的其它因素，以及震相标注和Ｌｇ波走时表等问题进行了讨论。     

圆弧型沉积盆地对平面SH波的散射

采用波函数展开方法给出圆弧型沉积盆地对面ＳＨ波二维散射问题的封闭级数解答。利用外域Ｇｒａｆ加法公式将解答归结为无穷代数方程组的求解。通过截断计算得到解答的数值结果，并通过连续条件的满足程度检验了截断计算的精度。将本文结果已有的近似解析解进行比较，指出了近似解答的误差来源和适用范围。给出一些典型算例说明盆地深度比对地震动的复杂作用。     

中国大陆原地复发强震的基本特征及其预测

在印度板块与欧亚块相碰撞形成的喜马拉雅弧板块边界力作用下，中国大陆有自己独特的现代构造运动和地震活动基本格架。格架是两组近似于对数螺线的现代构造滑移线，即最大剪切应力和剪切应变集中释放的区，带。在这种格架控制下，强震和大震在原地或基本在原地重复发生是中国大陆地震活动的重要特征。本文还提出了ｉ－ｆ－ｊ复发轮回模式和估计当前轮回强震复发时间的概率分布以及计算未来强震复发概率分式。为中，长期预测原地复发     

大同地震序列的震源机制解

使用ＣＤＳＮ长周期地震波形记录，利用Ｈｅｌｍｂｅｒｇｅｒ（１９６８）的广义地震射线理论得到的线性反演地震矩张量的方法，对１９８９年１０月１８日－１９９１年３月２５日发生在大同的４个Ｍｓ＞５．０的地震进行了反演，计算了这些地震矩张量和断层面解。     

利用中期地震活动异常综合预测地震危险区

在分析了首都圈地区（３８．５°～４１°Ｎ，１１３°～１２０°Ｅ）中强以上地震前地震活动特征的基础上，总结出了本区中强以上地震前地震活动的普遍性特征，应用孕震模型对地震活动异常进行综合分析，给出了应用地震活动异常进行地震预报的物理基础。文中还提出了应用中期地震活动异常进行预报的综合判别指标，当其达到给定阈值时，再考虑地质构造、中强以上地震发生的自然概率、大震后的减震作用、中期地震活动异常的分布及其预报效能等因素，给出二维的综合概率分布图，把概率值较高的地区作为未来一、二年中强以上地震的危险区。此外还进行了震级、时间预测方面的研究。     

A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China

During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory.