Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全球Ms≥7￣3／4级地震的定向迁移

对全球尺度的６条大地震带内１９００～１９９０年中１８４次Ｍｓ≥７３／４级地震进行了沿地震带方向定向迁移的分析，获得了全球统一的地震定向迁移规律，总体是由西向东，迁移速度由７００ｋｍ／ａ变为１５０ｋｍ／ａ，此现象可以作多种暂态地球动力作用过程的推论，如以大西洋脊间歇式张裂引起上地幔软流物质自西向东运动，呈现纵波式的振荡传播；也可解释为非洲板块、阿拉伯板块和印度板块自西南向东北对欧亚地震带依次的推压引起向东的应变波的传播；太平洋脊两侧洋底板块向西北和东北两侧的斜向推压，可能是造成两侧地震带地震向北迁移的触发源     

An approach to quantitative analysis of regional economic links

Aimed at promoting regional coalitions and expanding the approach to economic links, this paper puts forward some new concepts such as link intensity and receiving coefficient, expounds the indexes of quantitative analysis of economic links and establishes the quantitative-analysis model of economic links. With help of the model, this paper calculates the values of the link intensities between Su-Xi-Chang (Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou) region and Shanghai, and analyzes the regional difference of the economic links.     

A technique for conducting seismic refraction experiments on the ocean bed using bottom shots

A technique has been devised for firing arrays of bottom shots on the ocean bed in depths upto 4000 m or more. Ten kilogram explosive charges are dropped from the surface while the shooting ship is navigated acoustically. They are detonated at preset times by an electronic timer which initiates an electrical detonator, detonating cord and cast PETN/TNT explosive. Ranges to ocean bottom seismographs, and the shot instants, can be calculated from the arrival-time differences of the direct and surface-reflected water waves. The accuracy, which is dependent on water-depth and range, was better than 22 m in range and 14 msec in shot instant for our experiments.     

三维地震小面元采集技术在晋城矿区的应用

依托“西部煤炭资源高精度三维地震勘探技术”工程,对晋城矿区进行了旨在提高小断层,小陷落柱探测能力的高密度三维地震勘探。根据面元选择因素及该区地质任务,采用5m×5m网格进行野外数据采集;考虑炮检距、方位角、覆盖次数、排列片横纵比及煤层埋深（350～500m）等因素,采用中点放炮、60道接收,24次覆盖（横向4次,纵向6次）的8线16炮束状观测系统,基岩中激发。原始资料经同一处理流程后,获得5m×5m×1ms、5m×10m×1ms、10m×10m×1ms及2.5m×2.5m×1ms不同单元的三维数据体多个,通过对比可以发现小断层,小陷落柱在其小面元叠加时间剖面、顺层切片及相干切片都有清晰的反映。实例说明,小面元采集技术可以提高对小构造的纵、横向分辨能力,满足山区对三维地震精确勘探的要求。     

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。     

Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.     

Interpretation of subhorizontal crustal reflections by metamorphic and rheologic effects in the eastern part of the Pannonian Basin

The geologic origin of subhorizontal reflections, often observed in crustal seismic sections, was investigated by establishing metamorphic facies and strength of rocks in depth, and correlating these properties to seismic reflection sections from eastern Hungary. Estimation of the depths of metamorphic mineral stability zones utilized the principles developed by Fyfe et al. and known geothermal data of the area. The strength versus depth profile was derived by relating local seismic P -wave interval velocities to Meissner et al. 's activation energy. The results show that the series of subhorizontal reflections, observed in the Pannonian Basin, are a consequence of combined metamorphic and rheologic changes in depths. The synthesis of the integrated data set suggests that the retrograde alteration of the pre-Tertiary basement above the percolation threshold was made possible by the softening effect of shear zones and their water-conducting capacity. The subhorizontal reflections of highest energy, of the consolidated crust below the percolation threshold, originate in the depths of greenschist, amphibolite and granulite metamorphic mineral facies, which were formed in geothermal and pressure conditions similar to those existing today. These results imply the overprint of earlier (Variscan) metamorphic sequences of the crust by more recent retrograde metamorphic processes.