从辽宁东、西部地质对比论郯庐断裂的平移运动

辽宁东、西部地质上诸多差异并非是原地升降运动造成的，而是二个异地岩块经郯庐断裂大规模左旋平移运动迁移到一起的结果。辽东半岛原曾与鲁西－徐淮地区处于相同的古纬度。郯庐断裂北延的主干断裂应是抚顺－敦化断裂，它在辽宁境内是地层区划的重要界线。郯庐断裂在太古宙末期即已出现，曾多次变换其平移方向，最近一次大规模左行平移活动的高峰期是在晚侏罗世晚期－早白垩世，结束于孙家湾组或泉头组堆积之前。     

利用地震矩张量反演鲜水河断裂带现今运动学特征

本文探讨了利用地震矩反演断裂形变带运动学参数的基本理论和方法，将其初步应用于鲜水河断裂形变带变形分析和运动机制的研究。结果表明，鲜水河断裂带呈现出走向拉伸、倾向压缩的形变格局，由地震矩反演的断裂带剪切形变速率（１０．９ｍｍ／ａ）与用地质学估算方法（１７ｍｍ／ａ）和现今地壳形变测量（８ｍｍ／ａ）的结果相当。同时，反演出的应变主方向能解释鲜水河断裂现今活动分段性特征以及多种滑动方式共存的现状，从而证明该方法是目前研究区域运动学问题切实有效的手段之一。     

Seismic rays in an ellipsoidal earth model: theoretical analysis and estimation of deviations due to the ellipticity

Summary. A first-order form of the Euler's equations for rays in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth is obtained. The conditions affecting the velocity law for a monotonic increase, with respect to the arc length, in the angular distance to the epicentre, and in the angle of incidence, are the same in the ellipsoidal and spherical models. It is therefore possible to trace rays and to compute travel times directly in an ellipsoidal earth as in the spherical model. Thus comparison with the rays of the same coordinates in a spherical earth provides an estimate of the various deviations of these rays due to the Earth's flattening, and the corresponding travel-time differences, for mantle P -waves and for shallow earthquakes. All these deviations are functions both of the latitude and of the epicentral distance. The difference in the distance to the Earth's centre at points with the same geocentric latitude on rays in the ellipsoidal and in the spherical model may reach several kilometres. Directly related to the deformation of the isovelocity surfaces, this difference is the only cause of significant perturbation in travel times. Other differences, such as that corresponding to the ray torsion, are of the first order in ellipticity, and may exceed 1 km. They induce only small differences in travel time, less than 0.01s. Thus, we show that the ellipticity correction obtained by Jeffreys (1935) and Bullen (1937) by a perturbational method can be recovered by a direct evaluation of the travel times in an ellipsoidal model of the Earth. Moreover, as stated by Dziewonski & Gilbert (1976), we verify the non-dependence of this correction on the choice of the velocity law.     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

宁夏香山-天景山弧形断裂带新活动特征及1709年中卫南71/2级地震形变带

本文根据野外地质填图和水系位移测量结果,论述了香山-天景山弧形断裂带新生代有两个不同活动性质的阶段,即早期阶段的强烈挤压和晚期阶段的左旋走滑兼挤压。分析、讨论了不同活动阶段的时间界限和转变原因。指出了1709年中卫南71/_2级地震形变带的表现形式、延伸范围     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Numerical estimation of REV and permeability tensor for fractured rock masses by composite element method

The Monte Carlo method is used to generate parent stochastic discrete fracture network, from which a series of fractured rock samples of different sizes and orientations are extracted. The fracture network combined with a regular grid forms composite element mesh of the fractured rock sample, in which each composite element is composed of sub‐elements incised by fracture segments. The composite element method (CEM) for the seepage is implemented to obtain the nodal hydraulic potential as well as the seepage flow rates through the fractured rock samples. The application of CEM enables a large quantity of stochastic tests for the fractured rock samples because the pre‐process is facilitated greatly. By changing the sizes and orientations of the samples, the analysis of the seepage characteristics is realized to evaluate the variation of the permeability components, the existence of the permeability tensor and the representative element volume. The feasibility and effectiveness are illustrated in a numerical example. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

碳酸盐岩裂缝与岩溶作用研究

从构造与非构造作用角度出发,突出研究断层对裂缝的控制作用、断裂与岩溶的关系和裂缝与岩溶之间的关系,揭示碳酸盐岩裂缝与岩溶的发育规律。研究表明：构造裂缝为岩溶发育提供岩溶作用进行的有利通道,非构造裂缝则可以加速溶蚀作用的进行,促进岩溶的发育;裂缝与岩溶之间的关系始终是相辅相成、相互促进的关系。     

河南洛宁段河金矿流体包裹体研究和矿床成因

河南省洛宁县段河石英脉型金矿主要包括石寨沟和岭东两个矿区,分别由3～4条含金石英脉构成。矿化过程从早到晚包括石英-黄铁矿、石英-多金属硫化物和石英-碳酸盐等3个阶段．其中中阶段金矿化最强,次为早阶段。各阶段石英中流体包裹体以气液两相包裹体为主．次为纯液体包裹体。激光拉曼测试表明,气液两相包裹体的液相为H2O,气相主要为Ho和CO2混合、纯H2O,次为纯CO2;纯液体包裹体为纯H2O。石寨沟矿区包裹体均一温度从早到晚依次为240．9～315．9℃．188．7～304．5℃,137．3～259．3℃：流体盐度变化依次为（6．74～12．85）wt%NaCl．eq,（2．41～8．68）wt％NaCl．eq,（2．24-7．86）wt%NaCl．eq。岭东矿区均一温度从早到晚依次为303．7-343．1℃,251．8-325．4℃,305．7～355．0℃：流体盐度变化依次为（5．11～11．70）wt％NaCl．eq,（2．74-10．11）wt％NaCl．eq,（0．53-6．74）wt％NaCl．eq。两矿区主成矿期流体均为中温、低盐度,早阶段流体为改造热液和变质热液的混合体,含一定量CO2,且流体CO2含量和盐度从早到晚逐渐降低。石寨沟矿区包裹体均一温度逐渐降低,而岭东矿区包裹体均一温度先降后升,加之岭东矿区各阶段成矿温度均高于石寨沟矿区．表明成矿流体系统主要受岩浆热驱动,岭东矿区更靠近岩体,且在晚阶段又有脉动性的岩浆加热．段河金矿区南部存在隐伏岩体。