Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.     

Deep structure of the Central Alps in the light of recent seismic data

The deep seismic reflection traverses across the Central Alps (NFP 20, ECORS-CROP) contain a new set of data on the lower crust which has been interpreted in different ways. One currently fashionable model depicts the European lower crust (ELC) as gently dipping below the Adriatic crust. However, this model requires that an observed sharp termination of the ELC under the internal border of the External Massifs is due to the non-transmission of organized seismic energy through the complex upper crust. This explanation is questioned as other reflections in this and similarly complex areas are recorded, and as the same sharp termination of the ELC under the internal border of the External Massifs is observed on all seismic lines for a length of 300 km. A tectonic — metamorphic cause appears to more satisfactorily explain the obeservations, and therefore an alternative model combining surface and deep geophysical data is proposed. It consists of three mutually largely decoupled tectonic levels. (1) The shallow obducted part or lid, bounded at its base by the combined Late Miocene Jura and Lombardic basal thrusts. Estimates of shortening based on balanced sections are at least about 100 km. (2) The intermediate level between the brittle-ductile transition and the top of the subducted mantle. It contains a stack of lower crust imbrications (with a minor admixture of upper mantle) accommodated by (inducted into) the ductile middle crust. Estimates of shortening based on area balancing are again of the order of slightly more than 100 km. (3) The subducted upper mantle, for which there are no reflection data.In the Central Alps the Late Miocene phase was dextrally transpressive, producing flower structures at the shallow level (External Massifs); the stacks of lower crust imbrications at the intermediate level may be the equivalent of the External Massifs at that level. Inverted flower structures of the subducted mantle are possible, but no detailed data are available.     

Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.     

雄安新区地热地质模型探究：来自地球物理的证据

雄安新区内地热资源丰富，区内有牛驼镇地热田、容城地热田和高阳地热田，地热资源开发利用较早，但是对其深部热源机制仍未形成统一观点。为了研究雄安新区内地热田深部热源机制，在新区及外围进行了深反射地震和长周期大地电磁探测，对取得的同剖面的深反射地震和大地电磁数据进行处理和综合解释，探明了研究区从地表至莫霍面范围内地质构造和电性结构。下地壳结构在深反射地震剖面与大地电磁剖面上有很好的对应关系。电阻率低值区对应着在深反射地震剖面上存在一系列反射同相轴，且同相轴可以延续到莫霍面，电阻率高值区对应着在深反射地震剖面上无明显连续反射同相轴，尤其是在莫霍面之上呈现地震反射近似"空白区"。结合区域地热资料构建了研究区深部地热地质模型，对新区内深部地热机制进行了解释。该模型为"二元"生热模型，其热源包含两个部分，深部地幔热源和地壳放射性元素衰变生热。放射性元素衰变生热占地表热流的接近30%，而幔源热流在地表热流中的占比可达约70%。在牛驼镇下方，莫霍面以上，由于地幔热物质上涌造成下地壳上隆，幔源岩浆底侵作用于下地壳形成了局部热异常，该热异常具有低速高导的地球物理特征，认为是牛驼镇地热田和容城地热田的深部热源；以区域断裂为热通道，大地热流由深部向上传导、扩散到牛驼镇凸起和容城凸起顶部，对碳酸盐岩储水层进行加热，形成地热储层；上覆新近系沉积地层是良好的热盖层。     

A Step Towards Evaluation of the Seismic Response Reduction Factor in Multistorey Reinforced Concrete Frames

A seismic nonlinear time-history analysis was made for four-, six-, and eight-storey reinforced concrete buildings. These buildings were made as three-dimensional space frame structures with shear walls in both orthogonal directions. They have five bays with 4.8 m spacing each in the horizontal direction, and three bays with 4.2 m spacing each in the transversal direction. The frames were designed according to the Jordanian Seismic Code of practice for Seismic Zones 4, 3, 2, and 1 as proposed for Jordan by several authors. Time-history analysis was made using the El Centro (N-S) earthquake record of May 1940 as an actual earthquake excitation. The response reduction factor (R) that primarily consists of two factors that are the ductility reduction (Rµ) and the overstrength (), is obtained. It has been seen that the seismic zoning has a slight effect on the ductility reduction factor for different buildings, since it ranges from Zone 4 to Zone 1 as 2.37 to 2.52, 1.72 to 1.78, and 1.14 to 1.18 for four-, six-, and eight-storey buildings, respectively. Moreover, it is observed that, for different buildings and different seismic zones, the ductility reduction factor (Rµ) is slightly different from the system ductility factor (µ) especially for higher values of µ (i.e., Rµ µ). The response reduction factor, called overstrength (), was evaluated. The overstrength factor was found to vary with seismic zones (Z) , number of stories, and design gravity loads. However, the dependency on seismic zones was the strongest. The average overstrength of these buildings in Zones 4 and 1 was 2.61 and 6.94, respectively. The overstrength increased as the number of storeys decreased: overstrength of a four-storey building was higher than an eight-storey building by 36% in Zone 4, and 39% in Zone 1. Furthermore, buildings of the three heights had an average overstrength 165.9% higher in Zone 1 than in Zone 4. These observations have a significant implications for the seismic design codes which currently do not take into account the variation of the response reduction factor, R (i.e., ductility reduction factor times overstrength).     

Global climatic change – the latest scientific understanding

IPCCs statement in its 1995 report (IPCC 1996) that a human influence was discernible in global climate has been widely quoted but often misunderstood. The character of the evidence underpinning this detection statement is explained so that its strengths and weaknesses can be better understood and the subtleties of its message better appreciated. To demonstrate the close linkage between the government-approved summary and the underlying chapters of the IPCC report the detailed evolution of the detection statement from first draft through to the form finally approved by the IPCC is described.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

On some problems of seismic crustal phase

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微震仪有线传输避雷研究

本文通过对雷电放电分析,研究解决微震仪有线传输的避雷问题,并介绍接收雷电信号控制传输线上电荷对地短路的“ＤＢＬ－１”避雷仪。